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climatologically that kind of weather begins in June, it's rare for it to be muggy and sultry in May. And not even early June, more like after June 15th.

96 is a stretch, I'd say more like 84.

where is this cold coming from? I don't see it getting any colder than the SST, the highs should all be 55 or higher with lows in the upper 40s.

Records:Highs:EWR: 99 (1996)NYC: 96 (1996)LGA: 97 (1996)JFK: 95 (1996)Lows:EWR: 41 (2002)NYC: 43 (2002)LGA: 44 (2002)JFK: 42 (2002) it's not often that you see all the records line up like this lol 2002: A cold wave across the eastern and central U.S. led to many cities recording record low temperatures for this day. Among them was Hartford, CT where the low of 31° was the latest in the season below freezing temperatures have been recorded. This cold wave began two days earlier with 54 record daily lows set, followed by another 96 on the 19th. and this was after a historic heatwave in April with highs in the upper 90s! and a very hot summer to follow!

I can't wait for one of those winters where the coldest anomalies on the globe spill into the US, giving a brutal winter and TCC and company will distraughtly be posting how warm it is elsewhere on the globe.

I'm optimistic about Saturday, I think the storm will get the boot Friday evening and we'll have partly cloudy skies for the entire weekend with temps between 65-70.

True. Hopefully the Pacific is more favorable.

Wait until we near solar min and swtich back to Pac cold phse in several more years.....get an apprciably strong Modoki El Nino and we'll do just fine.

It depends on the polar domain.........I don't think we will get a lot of help there, so we'd have to hope that the extra tropical Pacific continues to transition. You probably have more leeway than the east coast, but even you would want to see a -WPO take shape.

19/8/5

We would need to start seeing signs emerge if it was to tilt one way or the other more than just neutral. Nothing is catching my eye and overall as Bluewave has said it does look like things want to try to progress eastward in the tropics and switch things up a bit but the subsurface would not be super conducive to produce a weak or moderate El Nino right now if that were to actually start to show up. I think it is important to remember that La Nina is just a further enhanced state of what base state looks like as 40/70 has mentioned it is important on location of oceanic and even atmospheric features that dictate overall how things progress. We are pushing out from the spring barrier so we should start to see some signs emerge, what they are yet is anyone's guess. I gotta get to bed though I work tonight so ill be back on later.

Doesn't look humid through D10 really. dewey may have some at-bats beyond that

2015-2016 was the storngest El Nino on record and 2023-2024 was during a strong cold phase PDO....this is a silly statement. Now, if you want to tell me that 2023-2024 was so much warmer than 1972-1973, and 2015-2016 than 1997-1998 due to CC, okay....but don't compare two entirely different type of El Nino evolutions. Its a lazy, ill informed approach.

Congratulations on your upcoming wedding.

Would love some warm and dry... alas... I fear humidity will be in play

That would be me, whoops, I just did...

Yeah EOM into June still looks warm/hot. Steined though

yep can't wait for the 240 hr Euro heatwave runs to be posted daily!

My guess is that the models don't account for surface friction and that most of the time, the mixing down gets "stuck" at the lowest levels? Winds are the hardest thing to predict. It used to be how much snow was going to fall from any one particular system. Of course, if you ask me, it has been unusually windy over the last 10 years or so?

Interesting. I have heard some hedge towards cold neutral and some warm neutral. For me, either is fine because anything from weak nino to weak nina usually can produce good winters. But since its so early, Im wondering what, if anything, we can put off the table? I remember in years past some were so hellbent for months on a strong Nino or nina but when it actually happened it was weak. So far, it seems to be nearly unanimous that a strong ENSO one way or the other isnt happening. Or at least thats the way Im reading into it haha. But what are the odds a strong or moderate event catches everyone off guard?

We had to purchase a portable unit for my mother-in-law's assisted living unit. Pretty nice and inexpensive device that seems to do the job where she is.

Kevin's over top warm blast is showing up on some of these recent GFS runs around June 1. This 12z version has a continental warm front demarcating a torpedo heat tube coming from the WNW ... probably 90 considering the sun up thickness is 567, and 572 by late afternoon behind this boundary... transporting 850s to 16+C in an easily tall mixing layer

We have seen this back and forth so much recently I am not confident this holds at all but for the mean time yes we are still having a La Nina atmosphere, even while weak to non existent SST profile, still holding the helm. Slow fade into Fall to neutral/warm status and maybe even a quick flare up of Nino like conditions atmospherically. No guarantee but the way things want to try and setup it seems this is possible. The biggest tell tale right now is the lack of WPAC typhoons should hit the record with no issue. Thoughts haven't changed in that aspect. There is no doubt though the warm pool has largely shifted now comes if it rebuilds in any meaningful way or we have another episode of end of summer/ fall push again. Yea I guess it will technically still register ENSO neutral but with a flare to Nino style is my current thought. We really may see the battle re establish again where we see a back and forth like last year. MJO is dead so it will be interesting if we follow a similar path as last year where a weak wave started moving again come end of June into July.

West is best for Saturday.