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Drunk?

Whole system up in Canada

No doubt that the Euro has outperformed the GFS on this one, with the NHC being remarkably consistent

At best some moisture will be pulled in. There's no big block to the NE to prevent this from going OTS. But a strong closed low could pull it further west as it departs thus pulling in moisture

The moisture, not the whole system.

Hopefully it's not too much at once though. All or nothing patterns are becoming common

CMC eventually pulls in the hurricane

We need the rains so hopefully the low tracking to the west now can tap some moisture from the hurricane. If we can actually verify a soaking rainfall, then maybe we can begin putting the drought behind us. All of our long range forecasts have verified drier than originally forecast. If the 12z Euro comes in really juicy, then it could be the beginning of a change to wetter. We will see…

The GFS and GGEM have moved into good agreement about the potential for a significant or perhaps even major rain event for the closing days of October. Rainfall for the 48-Hour Period Ending 10/31 12z for NYC: 10/24 18z GFS: 0.0" 10/25 0z GFS: 0.0" 10/25 6z GFS: 1.5" 10/25 12z GFS: 4.7" 10/25 0z GGEM: 0.5" 10/25 12z GGEM: 4.3" While the excessive amounts are far from certain, the general idea of a potentially widespread significant or greater rainfall is the key takeaway. The kind of powerful block in place under which a trough is trapped can lead to some big precipitation events.

Icon and Canadian also ramped up. Still out there but the potential for something significant is there. We still have no idea what role Melissa's will play but Canadian heavily entrains part of her energy in

Awful Halloween

It's pretty amazing how bad the short term forecast was for the GFS. For days on end, it's two day forecast was hundreds of miles off. Hopefully NOAA makes some changes, pretty embarrassing.

Awful Halloween

Some loaded new runs coming out. A west track would not be good. More strong winds, erosion and moderate to major coastal flooding

She is really getting going now

Gfs brings back the storm

Inland cutters aren’t nor’easters

I appreciate that some are trying AI. AI is here to stay and learning how to use it effectively is important. AI is already adding value to tasks, and it will almost certainly add even more value to tasks in the future. One should be familiar what it can and cannot do, recognize that it can and does make errors. Results should be verified by human examination of key results. Using multiple AIs to address the same prompt can also provide insight. If they provide a consistent outcome, one can have greater confidence in the generated outcome. If there are differences, that's often a sign that one or both have errors. One should also know how to write effective prompts. When writing a prompt one should be focused on obtaining objective high-quality results. Such prompts are similar to an exploratory research question where one seeks to understand something while being careful to avoid influencing the results. Prompt injection (and bullying) assures that one gets bad results. Such prompts are typically written to confirm biases. AIs can break down under such tactics.

You want p7. Those T storms will attack the strat .

I think this does warrant more attention (what would allow a 50/50 to lock in / why it has not formalized much recently). Perhaps someone with access to the data can see when the last time a period like this occurred and how long it took to revert back. 1955 through 1969 (I known i sound like a broken record) mirrored 2000 through 2018 in terms of KU events and overall snowfall. 1970 through 1999 had only 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years (2019 to now 1 above in 6 years). Perhaps theses periods can be compared to see if the 50/50 presence was also the culprit.

Am in the midst of Halloween fun for my 3 year old granddaughter. My goal is to review the 12z EC/ECAI and then get going on a threat either 5-6P or after 830P. 12z GS ballistic like the prior EC, even more so. So, need to step back and fully assess late today. Seemingly a moderate impact player ahead for Thu-Fri (rain/wind/power and minor CF). Note some modeling starts showery rains Tuesday.

That’s a good thought, but I just can’t bring myself to root for them.

So... I do know there has been some snow at the highest elevations of Vermont.... But this system seems like it could be our first region wide snowfall..... At least as of now (not a forecast, but bothe the GFS & the Euro have this system for 11/7-8 timeframe) https://x.com/Lclimateguy/status/1982046984589463849?t=jIhEOUA4tOpT0f5OArK1UA&s=19