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LfG!!!! wow this is exciting

i'm in and i feel conservative now

Lock it up, lock it in, let it begin

11 minutes left to get your guesses in

He Did!! Just backing you up. And I don’t know what to say guys. I’m honestly Shaking. Shaking off Happiness. This is THE GREATEST Storm I’ve ever tracked. How many models and outputs Not made in My or Ray or Tip’s basement are giving me 30”-36”. NWS 10% Map to NPM to the Model Blend Map to the SREF. It’s Absolutely Astounding. Absolutely. Astonishing. In terms of History vs. just snow numbers Forecast, this has a Meaningful Chance to be Top 10 All-Time in Northern RI, and a Worthy Chance to be Top 3 All-Time.

First time I’ve ever seen greys.

NYC 22.4 LGA 23.2 ISP 23.7 JFK 19.4 EWR 21.1

It did this in 2016. Also none of the OPs ended up catching up completely to hi res guidance. Also just like in 2016 it seems like have another battle between the hi res American guidance and the global OPs in regards to precipitation amounts.

GFS now cuts its through buffalo lol. Also not saying this will happen..but hey imagine if it did

same time frame as the image I posted just 2 different products .. ensemble mean vs ensemble probability matched mean

Instant buy… jesus christ, and the winds. Woah

NYC 21.1 LGA 22.2 ISP 24.8 JFK 18.1 EWR 20.8

The situation feels clarified now… serve is held

2/22 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow SREF mean: 2.2 / 21 NAM: 2.8 / 27.5 NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5 ICON: 1.4 / 13.5 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3 GFS: 1.6 / 16.7 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6 GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8 GEFS: 1.7 / 17 UKMET: 1.2 / 11 EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7 EURO: 1.4 / 12.8 Total QPF (NYC): 1.65 inches Total Snow (10:1, NYC): 16.0 inches

Two more runs and it will catch up the GFS while the first snowflakes already falling lol .

That gives me about exactly the 16" I just guessed to tittie twisting tiger.

Euro continues to be less enthused about the bomb out potential. It’s come a long way from its dud solution but it remains steadfast in showing less QPF/snow, particularly for DE and points NE. Curious if it’s onto something. Still an impressive storm nonetheless

Even the Euro track is a bit further north at 36 hr and further west at 42 hr than the 12z run. Don't have access to the 18z run. Qpf enhanced from the 12z run.

Final call NYC 17 LGA 19 ISP 21 JFK 20 EWR 19

Yep. Looks damn good. Chips fall mode now.

00z OP-EURO showing the same +10% QPF bump

So bad

But if a legend wanted to create one I would never say no. Way too much respect for the man.

Biggest difference is the speed NAM-GFS vs RGEM/Euro etc otherwise very similar

Euro came in with a 10-18” storm for the area. Love to see it finally come fully on board!