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Contract BS doesn't really exist...almost sure of it. Feels like something the fans started--nah invented--in 2022 in the absence of more info on his injury. And the narrative that refuses to go away, lol Lamar has never been like that (i.e. "holding in" and using an injury to do so). Dude loves the game too much I think Lamar is more cautious to not make things worse--and if it were later in the year I think he plays through this (2022 pcl sprain with swelling more serious). It kinda sounds like the team may have made the decision to sit him out this week too... That being said you're right about this week...2 weeks for a sprain like this oughta be enough and given the situation...he HAS to come back!

Why the F do people keep focusing one 1 year as the reason why every Niño since can't snow? The models screwed up that year...period! P.s. There has been an Aleutian low multiple times within the last few weeks. Obviously, you're not going to establish a mean low there yet this early in any winter season.

23-24 did the same thing basically every week Nov-Mar. Let's see if that Aleutian low actualizes.

Why would we need to stop focusing on it when it's one of the strongest correlated variables there is? It's completely dominating the Strongest El Nino on record in the N. Pacific so far. Philly, Balt and DC are near record lows for snowfall since 2016 when the core -PDO set in. Near the coast a few events really skews your total. It's like saying Pensacola Fl had a 10" snow event so therefore everything about a 10 year pattern is not relevant

Officially, first 32 degree temperature this morning.

It's a really strong decadal pattern. NOAA has run subsurface analysis of the N. Pacific and show very warm anomalies making it to -400m. That has never happened before. It will take a lot of time to get that out, at least a few years. History does show it's strongly cyclical over the course decades though so maybe in time it will be favorable again. I do think the next positive phase will be dominated by warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast North America, but it may take a few decades to get there, because it's a completely different pattern.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sunny but chilly October day. The hummingbird migration appears to be completed.

Latest Euro extended fwiw. Could look a lot worse than this heading into Met winter.

Need to stop focusing on it. It isnt the end all. What we need to overcome it is a -EPO, and an AO that isnt absurdly positive. We have had multiple snowstorms since 2015 with a less than favorable PDO, and in most of those cases there was an EPO ridge and a non hostile AO state.

I know you asked Chuck, but my answer would be that the marine heat wave off Japan either has to dissipate or migrate east to just off the western North America coast. Problem is, the marine heat wave runs deep about 100-200m not just at the surface, so its harder to mix that out.

What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?

Temp down to 46 degrees.

Lamar needs to play this week. His ankle sprain is mild. I doubt Mahomes would have missed any time. He needs to be willing to play less than 100%. Get yo ass out there and practice, and play on gameday. Stop with the contract BS. You will get paid. Go effing play.

N. Pacific low is not necessarily bad. Our biggest snowstorms come from that composite. Give me +PDO/Super east-based Nino 50 times and I bet it will be good 30 times vs recent averages. The problem is -PDO is completely overwhelming the N. Pacific pattern right now. You see this on models for the next 15 days.

Gotta wonder what they're gonna do with him. The misses from 40-49 are consistent enough to wonder if it's something mechanical as opposed to simply choking under pressure. If mechanical maybe it's fixable? But we can't keep doing this all season.

It was stunning this morning when I walked the dog. Totally still and silent other than the leaves hitting the ground

Had a high of 66 and a low of 30. Heading to Florida early AM for a week. Going to miss a perfect October week here!

Quite a few frosted roofs in the neighborhood this morning; I was surprised. My low 37 on a DP of 31. Burning first fire now. (Happy wife)

This is the kind of validation I need more of in my life lol