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There's probably a complex series of interrelated factors driving the rapid warming of the North Pacific. Those factors include: Arctic sea ice-/Arctic amplification-forced changes in the circulation leading to more prolonged and deeper ridges and a shift in storm tracks Cloud-related changes/positive cloud feedbacks, e.g., reduction in low-level clouds, driven by rising atmospheric CO2 and resulting warming allowing an increase in incoming solar radiation Reduction in aerosols also allowing an increase in incoming solar radiation The North Pacific also has a shallower mixed layer, which allows for faster heating Having said this, rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is the main driver. It is increasing oceanic heat content and either driving or exacerbating the above factors. There is also some emerging literature about inter-basin teleconnections where, for example, a warming of the Gulf Stream region influences atmospheric responses, including a weakening of the Aleutian Low.

With Humberto remaining a major for another day at least and Imelda potentially strengthening into a formidable hurricane the Atlantic has a real shot to be near normal ACE as we head into October. This seemed impossible a couple weeks ago but two long track cat 4+ storms will do that. With a current ACE of around 80 and likely a boost of around 15 more from the current storms we would be very close to seasonal averages. It would take continued cyclone activity to catch all the way up but still, this is like the the US in the Ryder cup over the weekend

What a torch after the two day mild down starting Saturday. Just amazing.

I saw some rain staying in Calvert for a few days but I'm back in the desert now. I've got 2.04 for the month after a nearly rainless August and have only 22 for the year.

Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (1945) NYC: 88 (1945) LGA: 86 (1945) JFK: 82 (1948) Lows: EWR: 40 (1942) NYC: 42 (1942) LGA: 43 (1942) JFK: 44 (2000) Historical: 1896: This was one of the worst if not the worst Hurricanes to hit the Richmond area. This was just before the weather Bureau was set up in Richmond and there was no warning of the storm's approach. The hurricane was traveling at a high rate of speed probably 60 miles per hour and didn't last long when it hit the Richmond area because of its speed. But the wind damage was very significant and rainfall in the Richmond area was not particularly heavy because of the shortness of the storm. But with the Ford speed being so rapid it added to the wind velocities which were released hurricane force in many areas. (Ref. Hurricanes of the Middle Atlantic States by Rick Schwartz pps100-104) A major hurricane struck Cedar Key, FL, inundating the keys with a 10 foot storm surge. Headlines read, "Cedar Key Crushed," and "Town Almost Wiped Out." Famous for its cedar trees, the Keys featured several major pencil manufacturers that were wiped out by the storm. Moving rapidly to the north-northeast then north, the cyclone passed west of the Washington, DC area bringing wing gusts in excess of 60 mph. This former hurricane passing to the east of Washington, DC giving 62 MPH winds (fastest mile) and 51 mph sustained wind for five minutes and the barometer fell to 29.14 inches of mercury at 2250 in Washington, DC. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1914: Boston, Massachusetts has the coldest temperature of 34 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1915: A severe category 4 hurricane struck southeastern Louisiana and produced winds to 140 mph in Terrebone Parish. The pressure dropped to 952 millibars or 28.11 inches of mercury. 90% of the buildings were destroyed in the parish. 275 people were killed and $13 million dollars in damage was done. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1924: Norfolk saw winds reach 76 mph sustained from a cyclone that became nontropical over the Southeast U.S.. In Fauquier county, four inches of rain fell at Leads Manor on the 29th. In Richmond county, 4.60" of rain fell at Warsaw on the 30th. Richmond, VA recorded 2.19 inches of rain on the 29th and 2.85 inches on the 30th for a total of 5.04 inches. Leeds Manor (4.00"), Stuart (4.20"), Urbanna (3.80"), and Winchester (2.05") all set 24-hour rainfall records for September during this tempest. East Coast Rain Storm 1925: The world record for a 3 minute rainfall total was set in Haughton Grove, Jamaica where 1.75 inches of rain fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1927 - An outbreak of tornadoes from Oklahoma to Indiana caused 81 deaths and 25 million dollars damage. A tornado (possibly two tornadoes) cut an eight-mile long path across Saint Louis MO, to Granite City IL, killing 79 persons. The damage path at times was a mile and a quarter in width. The storm followed a similar path to tornadoes which struck in 1871, 1896, and 1959. (The Weather Channel) 1938: A tornado hit Charleston, SC at 8 AM and did $2 million in damage. A total of five tornadoes hit the city between 6:45am and 9 AM, killing 32 people. One of the tornadoes passed from James Island, over the Ashley River, to just west of the Fort Sumter Hotel, causing extensive damage on Market & Broad Streets. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1959 - A storm produced 28 inches of snow at Colorado Springs, CO. (David Ludlum) 1959:Hurricane Gracie made landfall near Beaufort, SC with a central pressure around 950 millibars or 28.05 inches of mercury. Beaufort recorded sustained winds of 97 mph with a peak gust to 138 mph. 10 people were killed in South Carolina and Georgia. As a weakening Gracie moved through the Mid Atlantic area on the 30th, she spawned an F3 tornado at Ivy, VA which killed 11 people. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983 - Heavy rains began in central and eastern Arizona which culminated in the worst flood in the history of the state. Eight to ten inch rains across the area caused severe flooding in southeastern Arizona which resulted in thirteen deaths and 178 million dollars damage. President Reagan declared eight counties of Arizona to be disaster areas. (The Weather Channel) 1985: Denver, CO had a morning low of 17°, which set a record low temperature for the month of September. The afternoon high of 29° set the all-time record low maximum for the month. Grand Island, NE received 2 inches of snow their earliest snow on record. Other record lows included: West Yellowstone, MT: 3°, Wisdom, MT: 3°, Livingston, MT: 10°, Butte, MT: 10°, Red Lodge, MT: 11°, Dillon, MT: 11°, Boulder, MT: 11°, Valentine, MT: 14°, Cheyenne, WY: 14 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1986 - A week of violent weather began in Oklahoma which culminated in one of the worst flooding events in the history of the state. On the first day of the week early morning thunderstorms caused more than a million dollars damage in south Oklahoma City. Thunderstorms produced 4 to 7 inches of rain from Hobart to Ponca City, and another round of thunderstorms that evening produced 7 to 10 inches of rain in north central and northeastern sections of Oklahoma. (Storm Data) 1987 - A slow moving cold front produced rain from the Great Lakes Region to the Central Gulf Coast Region. A late afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 62 mph at Buffalo NY. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. In Oregon, the afternoon high of 96 degrees at Medford was a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - High pressure brought freezing temperatures to parts of Vermont and New York State. Burlington VT dipped to 30 degrees, and Binghamton NY reported a record low of 34 degrees. The high pressure system also brought cold weather to the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Alamosa CO reported a record low of 18 degrees, and Gunnison CO was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of just five degrees above zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the 80s and low 90s in the Northern Plateau and Northern Plains Region. Record highs included 91 degrees at Boise ID, and 92 degrees at Sheridan WY. The high of 100 degrees at Tucson AZ marked their 51st record high of the year, and their 92nd day of 100 degree weather. (National Weather Summary) 1991: Snow began in Caribou, ME during the evening ending early the next morning with 2.5 inches accumulating. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

68 / 57 clouds, warm today but limited sun may be a caveat to more 80s. Clearing tomorrow and more upper 70s to low - mid 80s in the warmest spots. Winds go around ENE/NE on Wed - Thu for a brief cooldown under the ridge before warming up Friday. Ridge east and overall warm to much warmer beyond there. Humberto and Imelda exit stage and bring much of the chances of / we had for any rain the next 5 - 7 days.

Yea, obviously the point isn't to expect a record winter, but rather we shouldn't be resigned to another dud because the year has been dry thus far.

Imelda looks like a bona fide Bermuda threat

There are many examples of larger tropical cyclones absorbing a nearby smaller tropical cyclone. Pretty fundamental dynamic process

This is fair....TBH, I struggle to see the connection either, but there is a pattern evident in the composites.

Even if we go above 100 ACE, which seems likely now, I very seriously doubt we go above normal and the ACE connection to winter is extremely questionable anyway

Well, I've showed you the composite, and it simply isn't true. False. Whether it's a coincidence or not, there is also a clear tend in the ACE composites.

GFS hits Bermuda

The cleaner air is probably a piece of the puzzle as to why the actual temperatures in the Northern Pacific have greatly exceeded the climate model forecasts in recent years.

The drier conditions have been probably helping out with this record heat for so late in the season. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 442 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 89 DEGREES TODAY AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES, SET IN 2014. RECORDS FOR THE NEWARK NJ AREA GO BACK TO 1931. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 530 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 85 DEGREES TODAY AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 84 DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2014 AS WELL AS 1954. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 418 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 84 DEGREES TODAY, SEPTEMBER 28TH AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 DEGREES, SET IN 2015. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0155 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ALLENTOWN PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86 DEGREES WAS SET AT ALLENTOWN PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 DEGREES SET IN 1941. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0155 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT READING PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT READING PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1941 AND 1943. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 0440 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GLENS FALLS NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT GLENS FALLS NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 1959.

@Stormchaserchuck1 Here comes your warm/dry -PDO October

We disagree on poleward ridging. -QBO/-ENSO supports a destabilized tropical tropopause, on equator forcing/convection and a flat Aleutian ridge. Not saying no poleward ridging at all but as much as we saw last winter? Nope IMO

and 82 here, that 79 at JFK is also an outlier lol

Too much traffic and congestion up there.

Don't think the climate has been stable for thousands of years, the 1700s and 1800s were extremely wild with temperature swings. I'm not even sure how we would deal with a repeat of 1917-18, that must have been truly horrendous.

That Christmas was something else. I remember looking for the switch for the a/c that morning and then realizing we’d turned it off nearly 2 months prior! That day was the definition of torch.

That has never happened. Two tropical cyclones never merge together.

The 0z Canadian gets Imelda close enough to Humberto that they end up merging and becoming one storm. If that happens, assuming the storm is still tropical, how do they decide which name the storm retains?

But everything is out to sea.

The GFS and Euro look like they’ve been trying to catch up with showing more vorticity and maybe a weak low developing, but time and shear may be inhibitors. There’s very clearly spin, but no convection whatsoever. It’s at least lemon worthy imo.