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No doubt...the is whether it will be virtually all eastern Pacific, or some intervals of central Pacific influence will be at play.

1.3 today, 3.2 total so far.

Yeah I’m not sure there’s a lot of trust in forecasts generally, but the storm being the lead story for a few days isn’t necessarily hype in my book. Now, if you’re not adjusting your forecast as you’re certainly heading toward a bust, that’s a whole different issue and problematic. Other than the clowns online using 925mb wind images and calling this tropical, I didn’t see a lot of hype, but we probably have different definitions of what hype is. Showing a legitimate rain and wind forecast map and saying we don’t usually get these in September doesn’t rise to the level for me.

The Sep of 2026 MJO has been very different from that of Sep of 2023: Sep of 2023 (blue): all in MC/IO Sep of 2026: none in MC/IO

91L looks like it developed a surface circulation on visible this morning, though it is highly sheared and looks to remain as such through its existence. Would not shock me if it steals a name and boosts the seasonal NS numbers of this weird season.

I do not agree with that at all. lol I think numerous people do not put a lot of trust in forecasts. ...especially after this in the Merrimack Valley area..

Except all the ones to the south . You’ll end up near it over 10”

Just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped, majority of the news audience tunes in for weather. Weather is a significant portion of news ratings. Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision. Even I year ago I laughed at how schools cancel so easily now, I made a post slamming schools because of closing for a potential wind event last year. However, a post from FXWX swayed my mind a bit and the various research papers I've read in this Weather and Society course I am currently taking has altered my perspective. There is an increasing trend for people to be on the safe side and one of the reasons for these decisions is people comparing risk versus "reward". Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well.

8.06…. Are we done? Doesn’t look like anything else rotating in on radar

C'mon for days the lead story on the news was the storm. The hype created panic. Numerous events in the Merrimack Valley area were postponed or cancelled. At no time was any adjustments made to the forecast for the Merrimack Valley area. Yesterday morning TWC had the area in the 2-3 more inches of rain to come area....not even close..

I'm at like 2.25" here

it really wasn't much north of monmouth county in nj tbh...if this had been snow it would have been a monmouth ocean special while we struggled to get six inches or so, seen it many times. hope its not a pattern this winter, though not expecting much anyway with this el nino. kinda glad i missed the brunt of it as i hate power outages who doesn't. a few branches down here but nothing to be worried about; worst seemed to be saturday night. never got torrential rains either. lot of people asking wtf around here, but way it goes. better to be prepared, and i had my stuff together if needed.

18"....6" in one hour

Approaching 3” storm total.

3.6 inch rain total

I don't recall any local TV stations hyping anything up. Like i said, forecast was very well communicated. Multiple days (several really) of communication allowed people to prepare, particularly emergency management and utility companies. Because of the staging and extra resources Eversouce dedicated ahead of time power outages were resolved in a timely manner and this helped keep numbers at a reasonable level. There was also some significant coastal flooding as advertised and you'd have to think those along the coast prepared and anticipated on this and impact the best they could. I don't recall any outlets out there stating any storm impacts being more extreme that what occurred.

..but the hype was off the charts...none of the hypemasters on TV offered up an explanation this morning....

I don't know how you can emphatically cite how much MC influence there was in 2023, then dismiss any influence of the central basin this season....yes, El Nino is stronger, but it's not omnipotent, as evidenced by the PDO resistance owed to the Japanese warm pool. Anyway, we'll see what happens....good chatting, as always.

There are always going to be areas which either meet forecast expectations, receive greater storm impact than forecast, or end up with lesser impact than forecast. From a forecasting perspective there are many situations where a forecaster can have an idea of where greater impacts/lesser impacts are more likely, however, it becomes a great challenge presenting that and conveying that to the general public. There are also situations where this is highly dependent on small-scale processes related to exact storm evolution.

You mean 1.2? I just showed you the precip anomalies....they are higher in region 3.4 than in regions 3 and 1.2. I do agree that the forcing is sheared due to the warmth on the eastern flank of ENSO, but it's not as large of an area as the central node of warmth. Again, all I am arguing for is a nice stretch mid season when that central area takes hold....not a 2002-2003 or 2009-2010 like outcome.

It was. That area always floods.

That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

The actual SSTs late this fall into winter may continue to be near +30C in spots along the West Coast of Southern Mexico and Central America. During a much weaker El Niño in 2023-2024 they were at +29C. Plus the magnitude of the warmth in Nino 1-2 and 3 are forecast to pull the forcing east. This happened in 1997-1998 with much cooler SSTs.

Let me be clear....I agree with Chris that this season will be east-based as far as temp anomalies...warmth will be more prevalent; I'm just arguing that there will be some favorable windows during the 2nd half. I'm not arguing for a Modoki season or anything.