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a bit of personal news. Will be moving to the Twin Cities in August, been busy with all that entails so haven't been able to be on the board much but hoping to be on here again after the move!

Not so sure about that Some of the maps being posted around makes it seem like Noah needs to make another appearance from heaven Great to be getting some of these setups lately. Giving people much needed rain without the concern for significant flooding issues. I know there was the flooding within SW CT last week but these events are perfect to tackle the deficit without cause for major concern

The latest

There is still a quite a bit of uncertainty in how the whole thing evolves for sure. I mean if you look at the latest NAM's, there is actually some potential we get enough drying and maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow (especially in CT) that we could pop isolated thunderstorms with potential for localized damaging wind gust or even a brief tornado. I was thinking the greatest max would be west of here...Hudson into NJ but its possible you may see the max zone be something like northeast CT into northeast MA and southern NH and then a few local maxes elsewhere.

Sounds about right. Don't think anyone is calling for 4" region-wide. There'll be some jackpots for sure.

Recent guidance targeting northern NJ for heaviest rainfall: https://x.com/BhatiaKieran/status/2082103580756971568

It's early.

It took 20 years here, but we finally got some VT bears

Also, doesn’t seem to be diving as much SE as I would have thought, more NE?

That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago

Yeah I am seeing that too. We may be cooked here.

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground

The HRRR/hires NAM have basically no convection after the MCS rolls through outside of far Eastern NC. It's not looking good TBH

Oh look it's the SoMD precip split in full effect. I recognized the signs before the precip had even exited SE Ohio. It's so predictable. Try harder, weather gods.

I got 0.37". Honestly more than I expected.

A lot of rain coming, very steamy out here. We'll definitely see flooding today. Northern Westchester county should really watch out and southeastern Queens and Brooklyn are prone to setups like this for big flooding.

Clouds are our most common fail mode in these parts.

The main issue I am seeing right now is fairly extensive cloud cover coming out of VA. I am not sure how much we will destabilize given that factor. Shear will not be the problem here. The clouds will be. That has me concerned.

Quite a weird outcome to yesterday, everything rode the front and the front was never able to advance NE into MI until really late and after the atmosphere was worked over. I would have loved to gotten more rain than we did last night though.

Skies to the north look ominous.

It's an unstable environment. You can definitely tell that from the storms firing this morning.

Was counting on this potential rain today, but as it moves east into the Susquehanna Valley, it looks like its falling apart again according to the radar.

SPC UPGRADED tornado probabilities for the CLT area and NE up to 5%. I didnt see that one coming.

At what stage did you have it review the NCEI adjustment criteria? Did you assess the wording of the prompt? As noted in my comment, I do not believe you went to any of the extremes taken by the social media musician in question. I hope that you didn't take my reference to suggest or imply any kind of accusation. At work, I sometimes use AI to complement my analysis of information. AI is never a substitute (if it were, then automation, not augmentation is a better approach). My use of AI for complementary analytical purposes is taken from multiple angles, as I am very hesitant to influence the outcome. I am continually worried about unintended introduction of bias into the work. I am also concerned with AI sycophancy. I also know from speaking to some power users of AI (I'm not one), there's still a lot more to learn. And that doesn't even consider AI's rapid evolution. Indeed, OpenAI's Sam Altman suggested recently that some of the newer models being tested have either approached or reached singularity (we'll see if that's true once those models are released and examined more closely). In using AI to complement my own analysis, I am looking for blind spots/areas I might have missed, seeking expanded perspectives/interpretations, looking for subtle relationships among variables that might require further exploration, etc. In what is an iterative exercise, I've often found that even modest changes in the initial prompt followed by the same sequence of follow-ups can lead to fairly different outcomes. Use of different AI's (Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini) also can result in differences (each seems to have its own character so to speak). Ultimately, I view these differing outcomes as potential scenarios or conclusions (in weather terms, much like one views solutions from different ensemble members).

Current radar