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1/23 12z Euro AI AIFS out to 30

It's gonna snow and there's nothing we can do about it.

Yeah, I'll check back in here January 31st for the 02/02 "storm"

I like my spot in Pembroke for this

I'm curious what the disconnect is between the NAM and the GFS on precip. They aren't even in the same ballpark on totals. That said, I remember a storm from a few years ago that was forecast to be a significant ice storm and the globals wound up way overdoing precip and we wound up with just scattered/spotty showers.

Westminster is an absolute mad house today. This will be my first storm up in Westminster after having lived in Woodbine for a long time as a kid. Excited for whatever happens as we have had a rough stretch up here since I moved here in 2017.

We’ll see, hopefully you’re right. If the sleet line just barely gets here or goes back and forth we have a real shot at 12”.

I’ve noticed you get this crap in Pittsburgh sometimes, where they forecast falling temps through the day and it just doesn’t happen until the sun goes down. I doubt it affects overnight lows tonight or temps tomorrow, and I really doubt it cuts into our snow totals Sunday. That isn’t the fail mode.

Not sure it's worth much, but now-cast HRRR is missing precip breaking out in cold sector. Just something to watch moving forward.

Woken up from a coma thought I was hallucinating you may be right

With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes. Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.

that idea is already a bust, since all other guidance caved to the gfs.

These are for Greensboro

I think it depends on where you are located. At my house, in the woods, there is an inch or two of solid snow. So I imagine that wooded areas - except on east or south facing slopes - are still fairly well covered. Obviously, in the city, there's little if any snow left, but the rivers are quite ice covered now.

New York City: 7 Boston 15 Philadelphia 6 Washington DC 6 Hartford 14 Albany 10 Your city Fairfield CT 12

That's pretty cool display of info.

I've sat on this one for a while now, trying to decide. The only two options I could come up with were the blizzard of '99 and GHD1. The choice of GHD1 seems easy to me. I feel I'd be able to enjoy it more at this point in life, plus it was more significant in many aspects.

It is harder than the Plains; and, that's a high bar. When someone in the Northeast says they got it hard I laugh in their face. Y'all been looking at it for 3-4 days inside the US! Models got it onshore those same days ahead. I will concede the coastal front is hard - and has crushed many a snow lover hearts.

post your snow predictions

Aside from March 1993, which storm that dumped on Atlanta gave us 2'+?

Still hard to believe how far north this system has trended with the artic high and 50/50 with blocking.

We have a reason #9 to discount a model run: 9. If all else fails pull the BAM weather lever.

post your snow predictions