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Hopefully we are converging on a result that is close to reality. As it stands I feel like 6-9” is a safe and reasonable forecast for 95. Feel like 10-14” NW.

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@Matthew70, I am reminded that you consistently said not to cancel winter. Just a little thank you card from me.

Wow!

Appreciate it, friend! Its comforting to know people still care about their elders

6-12 is still the best range at the juncture. Do agree it sucks to have a one in ten year storm turn into a snow and sleet bomb instead of two feet.

Whereas my crew is saying I was the only one mentioning mix Tuesday pm and giving premature props for a conservative outlook. On the other hand, if this does trend colder/snowier, then Im a clown

I tried to shut up all week about the Kucera maps. It is pointless to rage against those.

For winter storms you get hit with a double whammy if you live east of 95 in Maryland - you're closer to the bay, which means slightly warmer temperatures in the winter, and being further east means you're closer to coastal lows. Even 20 miles out from the bay you still get a little bit of the effect. Drive from Columbia to Severna Park and watch your dashboard thermometer and you'll see. If there is one benefit to living in the east - you never worry about QPF. You open your windows and look outside and you see its a swamp out there. And you're reminded that you're the QPF winner.

Wow MT Holly

Yea, thats storm 2. EURO still has the storm but its slightly further offshore and gets no precip onshore.

Always looking out for you friend

One of my disappointing storms. My first chance at a big east coast storm and then it snizzles all day, snows overnight, and starts melting immediately in the morning. <9" down at my rental near the Pentagon.

So take snow depth maps and subtract 5". Got it.

I'm fine personally. Its work and municipalities that im worried about.

I’d say it’s tougher to get a big storm with double digits in the cities while staying all snow. A 1-3” clipper without precip worries is easy. But it takes a damn near perfect setup like February 2010 or January 2016 to get a slow moving coastal monster that delivers prolific totals, awesome dynamics, and doesn’t mix at all. And that’s why they’re so rare and memorable.

EPS still looking good...

I know I'm not good with the interwebs or technology in general so I'll stick with my trusty abacus for mathing. Thank you

Yeah because just 36 hours ago it was looking more like 8-12" for the metros and now we're down to 5-8"...and seeing unfavorable trends with the low position and such. So many times we get closer and stuff gets lower and lower. Been burned many times the last 10 years

You’d make it to Columbia if that model run verifies.

i really think we have narrowed down close to a final solution. The only real loose ends are the development of the secondary low and its location to the coast. Thats the difference between 9 inches and 12" + for many, more so than mixing

The I-85 black hole would suck you in and drag you all the way to Lake Hartwell

I still think NW might eek out 12"-15"