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Cold front is thru down to 39 off a high of 42. The last of the “massive torch “ is over

Winter Storm showing for VA at Day 10/11 on the Euro.

I pull for everyone on this board. I am used to the different state bias, but I think a lot of "drive by" folks see that kind of comment and think it's storm cancel for them and it's just not. The EURO is so flat, I just don't buy it but maybe I am wish-casting. I would prefer the 00Z GFS to pop a lot on this board including the mountain folks.

the heavy rates will cool the column

The @Ralph Wiggumgoon period upcoming!

We really do need it. It has been ridiculous. And that is a pretty easy way to win. Depending on where the boundary sets up.

The irony in the 1/18 disaster….model guidance today got a lot more interesting for next week and weekend. Some legit hits showing up. Ensembles have always liked this period so let’s see if they bag a win.

I do think that changes next week…the signal is there as we’ve all said for a good overrunning event…maybe late next week.

My deep dive analysis on the 12z model suite can be found below:

might want to peek at the latest Euro...

this has been hinted by several models in the past few days including a run where the euro gave us 4 feet lol. We desperately need this

Quite the next 12 days IF you choose to believe the European

@CoastalWx

It started in 2018.....before that, it was two decades of blizzards and marquee FA signings being dished out like Halloween candy...now, every vort either cuts to the lakes, or is sheared until it reaches the Maritimes, while every large FA target sublimates into a broke-dick high AAV-short-term signing. All they do is sign clippers....even Suarez kind of a broke-dick/clipper on roids.

A warm air advection set up in a state furthest away from the cold air resupply? Genuinely not trying to be a dick, but yes it’s going to be tough for “all,” not just the NC crew. That’s why I said “all.” Rooting for you, I really am. I know how magical snow is for all of us, let alone in the Deep South, but be careful assuming that I was NC focused.

Long range Euro showing potential. Gets a nice area wide win which is desperately needed. Not shown on the map is .1-.3 inches of freezing rain between the two parts of the storm

thats just the appetizer

Kind of in the same boat. Will give it another week or two but then might give into despair. Just found out I will be going overseas for work next month so my window has been truncated. Enjoy your chase this weekend! My November chase to Davis/Blackwater Falls has numbed the local pain a lot!

Models today have been awful for most to say the least. Euro is showing off again but not in a good way for any of us

Euro has a severe winter storm for us. 24th to 27th....snow to ice to heavy snow lol

In my opinion, there's too much trust in AI for weather prediction. I've mentioned this a few times, but It was made operational recently There's nothing wrong with current NWP excluding (a) it takes longer to run and (b) it requires a lot of resources vs. AI There is no significant evidence the EC-AIFS/AIGFS outperforms NWP for sensible weather at the surface during inclement weather (please provide a source if I'm wrong). For AI, nobody knows how forcing(x,y,z,t) is calculated (doesn't rely on traditional methods). ie... what is 1+1? Human = 1 + 1 == 2 ||| AI = :performs multi-dimensional math on 'n' fields: == 2. Do you trust that? Given the initial state of the atmosphere is captured flawlessly, there's no guarantee AI will perform well. AI is great when there is no known relationship/correlation between a predictor and many predictands. Weather is relatively predictable so I don't find AI useful unless the fields are bias-corrected then ingested back into data assimilation grids. If the AIs outperform NWP for this, *** and it evaluates well ***, I'll take it a little more seriously. Who knows... Maybe truncating/rendering certain fields may increase its accuracy for this one event <AND/OR> data assimilation is poor at the current location(s) where the disturbance(s) is/are, and AI could use historic events to predict this event with some level of accuracy.

Doesn't matter we get the vortmax to setup across the upper ohio valley which ruins any chance to get neg tilt and a strong wave coming in behind it which limits how much time it would've had anyways.

Trigger initiated.

Not to be a jerk about this storm but temps when it snows are awful. Would be pretty for those who could get banded but there are obstacles here.