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12Z GFS is a complete miss to the east - very little precip west of Long Island 12Z Icon is an impactful storm for most of the metro - moderate to heavy rain The reason for the difference is the placement of the HP in Canada - the HP on the Icon stays north of the storm blocking it into the coast - HP on the GFS is northwest of us in south Canada - not blocking the storm movement to the north and preventing it from getting too close to the coast

No thanks on 4" qpf although we could use some.

It’ll get the idea Saturday afternoon.

Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run.

gfs a little west, but gets pretty far north before the WSW hook toward the elbow. Wet run for NH/ME, but probably still beer.

Duly noted. You're not the first person who's told me this either LOL

Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks.

I remember that site cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet

I have a family member planning to visit NYC Thu-Sun. Is it going to be bad enough for him to consider canceling? What are the chances of major coastal flooding causing a big mess through much of NYC? TIA

King GFS is back, leading the way on this threat

12z GFS is bone dry for the tri-state

Ocean City was nice... in the 90's. Lots of good childhood memories there. Last time we were in OC was 2013 and we decided never to go back, it had really gone downhill even then. Rehoboth is still great though! I haven't been to Virginia Beach since I was a little kid, and am wondering what it's like now. We were thinking of going there next year.

Yep from UMICH.. probably over 500 over the years. Thank God for predictive search shows previously visited.

The model tracking and back and forth banter on this storm is nice practice for the upcoming winter lol

You had bookmarks from 1991?

Did you expect anything different? Full moon goon.

Tides at high are 10.5 ft not bad but days and days of ENE wind gonna pile water. Good link to watch. FYI I lost 35 years of bookmarks in Chrome on an upgrade. Sick about it. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterconditions.html

Created a fall thread:

Happy fall, pumpkin spice, chilly nights and lots of wind

61.2 with light rain/drizzle. Just a few hundredths of an inch so far. Will almost certainly finish a "storm" total under 1/4" (including yesterdays rain), pretty big disappointment given modeling, forecast and SPC flood risks for the area coming into the event. Western NC big winner again

Soo that was day 2 yesterday and now is day 1 lol oops .

Records: Highs: EWR: 94 (1970) NYC: 97 (1895) LGA: 93 (1970) JFK: 90 (1970) Lows: EWR: 40 (1947) NYC: 41 (1947) LGA: 42 (1947) JFK: 43 (1963) Historical: 1722: La Nouvelle-Orléans (New Orleans) was founded May 7, 1718, by the French Mississippi Company, under the direction of Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, on land inhabited by the Chitimacha. Four years later, a hurricane destroys nearly every building in the village, including the only church and hospital. 1785: The "most tremendous gale of wind known in this country" passed over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and went along a track very similar to the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, lower stories of dwellings were flooded. Warehouses were totally carried away by the storm surge, causing large amounts of salt, sugar, corn, and lumber to disappear. A large number of cattle drowned, and people hung onto trees for dear life during the tempest. At Portsmouth, the entire town was submerged. Forrest's book, Sketches of Norfolk, offers this account of the storm: " This year, 1785, was noted for the highest tide ever before known to Norfolk, completely deluging a large portion of its site on the water side". Almost all ships in the area were driven from their moorings near Norfolk. No less than 30 vessels were seen beached after the storm. Damages totaled £30,000. At least two died due to shipping disasters. After ravaging Virginia, the system tracked up the coast to Boston. (Ref. Hurricane of 1785) 1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum) 1903: Bakersfield, CA dropped to 31°, their earliest below freezing temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1975: On September 22, Hurricane Eloise intensified to attain Category 2 strength, and became a major hurricane of Category 3 status shortly after that as it turned towards the northeast. Several ships penetrated the storm's center during its passage through the Gulf. Hurricane Eloise continued to strengthen until it reached its peak winds of 125 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of about 955 mbar. It moved ashore along the Florida Panhandle near Panama City on September 23. 1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel) 1984: An early season snowstorm brought more than a foot of snow to some locations in the northern Plains and Rockies. Amounts of 6 to 12 inches were common over Harding and Perkins Counties as well as portions of Meade and Butte Counties in South Dakota. Camp Crook in Harding County reported 14 inches. Roads in these areas were covered with snow and slush and became icy. It was the snowiest September day on record at Sheridan, WY and Billings, MT with 12.9 inches and 6.2 inches respectively. Other snowfall totals included: Broadus, MT: 12 inches, Columbus, MT: 10 inches, Nye, MT: 10 inches, Clearmont, MT: 10 inches, Hysham, MT: 8 inches, Red Lodge, MT: 7 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: Early snow over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (.4) recorded at the Twin City Airport. Most of it fell during the afternoon. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1995: Fort Wayne, IN reported its earliest frost on record as the morning low plunged to 29°. Springfield, IL recorded their earliest 32 temperature on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A lightning strike from a severe thunderstorm damaged or destroyed 19 boats at Hobbs Hollow Marina on Table Rock Lake near the town of Viola, MO. Damage was estimated at $500,000 dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: In a remarkable span of 35 days from August 19th until September 23rd, 10 named tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic; 4 of which made landfall in the United States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000 : The first snowstorm of the season brought heavy snow to parts of the Rockies. While the heaviest snow fell north of Denver, CO, 6 inches was reported at Boulder, 4 inches at Castle Rock and Morrison, CO. Denver, CO received just 0.2 inch as most of the precipitation fell as a cold rain. The foothills west of Denver received 5 to 10 inches. Further north, Cheyenne, WY received an additional 6.4 inches of snow bringing the storm total to 11.8 inches. Scottsbluff, NE received 5.7 inches of snow over two days. Behind the storm, Shirley Basin, WY dropped to 2°. The Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas recorded 0.01 inches of rain just before midnight on this date. This ended the longest streak of consecutive days without rainfall at the site of 84 days. The previous record was 58 days. Relief would finally arrive in October as beneficial rainfall fell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

Full moon on Saturday