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Thread] [1/6] I think we can now confidently say that France is going through the greatest national agricultural disaster since 1945. Without public aid, 30,000 to 35,000 farms could find themselves in bankruptcy, which is nearly 10% of French agricultural holdings. That's monstrous. The exceptional weather conditions we're experiencing today are getting closer to what will become much more frequent, or even ordinary, in the coming decades. 2026 will be in line with the average for 2050. We'll see even hotter and more extreme years than 2026. The realization is therefore becoming hard to avoid: our agricultural model is not sufficiently prepared for the climate change that's coming. It's also the result of a collective political failure: successive governments haven't fully grasped the scale of the upheavals that climate change is already imposing on our agriculture, and will impose tomorrow. It's no longer just about repairing the damage after every drought, heatwave, or poor harvest. We now need to undertake a structural transformation of our agriculture. Here are the most reliable yield losses I could find compared to the average of the last 5 years (only for spring and summer crops). Rate this translation:

I estimate 1.77C is needed to break a record this year vs Jacobson's 1.84. In any case August's warmth has made a record likely this year and put 2023's gobsmacking September of 1.74C in play. Sept 2023 is still the highest ERA monthly anomaly.

What a summer for SW CT.. While there remains forecast uncertainty this far out, it appears the region will have the potential for convectively induced heavy rain and embedded thunderstorm activity. WPC currently has the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Monday through Thursday morning, and SPC persists in placing the area in a 15 percent chance of severe weather on Day 5 (Wednesday) which is rare to see this far out in time. So the middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into Thursday

I like the gfs op at 00z and 06z giving CA some canes.

Fortunately nobody cares

Looks like a multi-day event coming for the region. SPC even mentions svr risk on DY6 psbl! Hot upper ridge w/ axis to our W in WNW to NW flow and we are on the edge of capping and stronger flow aloft. Can do quite well in such set ups due to an EML! Highest risk and axis just N now is actually good b/c many times initial convection pushes the boundary farther S than any model shows, so that may place it right over the region instead. We saw this a few weeks back except everything was pushed well S into the Carolinas and we missed out on a multi-day svr event in the DMV.

I think the recent leveling off of Nino 3.4 SSTs was a result of the record WWBs pushing the warm pool further east than originally forecast. The latest EPS extended now has a warmer Nino 1+2 forecast than the seasonal model on August 5th was indicating by October. So it will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal looks like when it updates on September 5th.

@weatherwiz and @CoastalWx are "mad" it is all SW! SPC even said DY6 could have svr in the same area!

Yup, wagons south. Congrats NJ

Not looking like storms anywhere in New England now

is the thread title a forecast or wishful thinking ?

This was the 60th anniversary of the late August 1986 record cold outbreak. Was the last time MPO went below freezing and NYC reached 50° in August. It was followed by the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ. Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 31 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 34 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 35 NJ NEWTON COOP 35 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 36 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 37 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 37 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37 NJ BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 38 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 38 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 39 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 39 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 39 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 39 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 39 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 39 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 39 Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 34 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 35 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 NJ CRANFORD COOP 39 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 39 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 40 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 41 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 42 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 42 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 42 NY WESTBURY COOP 42 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 42 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 42 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 43 NY SCARSDALE COOP 43 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 43 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44 NY WEST POINT COOP 45 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 45 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 45 CT GROTON COOP 45 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46 NY MINEOLA COOP 46 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 46 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 46 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 46 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 46 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 48 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 48 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 50 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 51 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 Snowfall Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 86.6 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 70.0 PA LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 59.6 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 59.3 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 53.9 NJ LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 53.3 PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 51.0 PA GLENMOORE COOP 50.0 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 48.1 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 47.3

Yes, the convective mass is impressive w/ very cold cloud tops. but it is amorphous and rapidly pulsing. This indicate lots of shear and/or dry air, which promotes regular severe convection, but it detrimental to TC formation/development. We saw this w/ Bertha when it was on the LA coast and intense mass of convection well S due to strong shear. Look at the loop attached for Ex-Dolly this morning. The convection is "ripping" linearly E to W on a trough line. No circular motion or banding at all. That is not a sign of overall intensification as a TC. Sure, there are gale force winds easily in that severe convection, but that is mesoscale and transitory, not pressure gradient driven on a larger-scale, which what you look for a TC. Basically, it does not fit the requirement of a TC, which is a coherent, closed low-level wind center w/ persistent convection. Yes, you can still have shear and dry air present and have a TC, but this is not the case here b/c synoptic conditions are so unfavroable. It as a strong tropical wave, it can thrive when it comes to intense convection, but lack organization to fit the definition of a TC. Generally you do not want to see rapid blow-ups of convection for TC development/intensification b/c it often pulses down quickly and leaves cooler, low-level outflow soundbites from collapsing convective towers (including downbursts), that radiate away in a divergent pattern, which prevents or weakens any low-level circulation. You see this is often in sheared systems in the form of fine-line line outflow boundaries moving away from the center on VIS. Circular banded convection around a center that has not as cold cloud tops is much better to see on satellite for a TC than what we see for ex-Dolly now.

It makes you wonder prior to the satellite era and modern practices, season that were record quiet, like 1914 (one storm), It is highly likely there were some others just like we have seen this season so far. Short-lived, weak TSs that we simply did not have capability of detecting them well or at all way back. But it does not really impact the climo, at least when you go by ACE. 10 weak, short-lived TSs don't even come close to a single, long-tracked, intense Cabo Verde hurricane for total ACE!

Having an exceptional pattern the other way (i.e. very inactive) is of high value b/c it allows us to see the absolute extremes at the other end and what goes on literally that causes it. Sure, we know very strong El Nino does this to the Atlantic, but not every very strong El Nino is the same and we only have 4 other El Ninos since 1950 on this scale, so odds that when this El Nino is done, we will have witness patterns we have not seen before in the satellite age. Knowing what suppresses TCs I would argue is just as important as to what favors them. And 2024 and 2025 w/o El Nino, we had some previously unseen patterns that ripped the heart out of the peak climo part of the season and resulted in busted over-forecasts. Either it was unusually strong and persistent SALs/TUTTs or the ITCZ displaced unusually far N into the Sahara, and brought to light was the "Atlantic Nina" and its possible role!

Pretty soon you will be as well. The updated USDA climate zones from 2023 has 7b right on Weymouths doorstep.