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This is the reason why I am against selling this year (other than maybe Ward or Mayo). I still believe in the talent of this team--I think a GM change will help. Alby it's way too early to tell what kind of manager he'll become...because the problems they have right now? They started back in 2024. Who knows if it may just take a season to scrub out the old mentality?

I cannot tolerate heat anymore. It still feels like 89 outside past midnight and it feels like an inferno. Feels worse than FL nights.

It was a 90.5 technically. And my sensor is not in the sun the PWS in my immediate area were between 89 and 91

That's definitely true here in CO. Many of our biggest storms have been early/late in El Nino winters.

Whoa, was not aware of that feature. All cleaned up now. Thank you.

Man, that Raleigh forecast reminds of Phoenix. That’s just unreal for these parts. (Unlike Phoenix, it will not be a “dry heat”.)

Maybe another shot sometime in July or August, still plenty of summer left.

Big CAPE bullseye right over me noggin up here.

Good point. Its also typical to see very early and late season snows

My point and click now has 100 on Saturday, 96 on Sunday and 94 on Monday. I had thought the worst of the heat was expected to subside by then. Not surprised though. July is gonna July.

Oh don't worry we will, it's more guaranteed than me making dirty jokes.

The odds of a cold Winter at all in the mean (DJFM) is probably like 15%. For the US as a whole maybe 10%. It's not a hard forecast.

I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country.

82-83 was a very strong Nino year, one of the 3 strongest. We had a big snow in December, two decent ones in January and another in February. Temps were AN in December and normal for J and F. 1997-98 was a top 3. We had the massive NE Tennessee and then Plateau snow storms. December had several inches fall between Christmas and New Years. January was snowless here but NE areas got smashed late month. We got it a week later in Early February. Otherwise winter was mild. 2015-16 was a pretty snowy/cold winter for most of us I believe. So there's always a good chance of a big snow or several during the strongest Ninos. But the base pattern is likely to he N to AN temp wise.

Keep an eye on Wednesday. Some of the 0z mesos are suggesting there could be some strong storms that day. These ring of fire pattern storms can be hard to nail down until the day of.

Good ring of fire/NW flow/derecho set ups occur about every 5-8 yr in the NEUS. Looks like we will have to deal w/ this every day in some form June 30-July 4. One of better persistent setups I have seen in a while. This stuff can get nasty. Noted that Wed aftn, HRRR sfc-based CAPEs as high as 4800 in VT! EML present as well (WxWiz is happy!). The HRRR valid 00z Thu suggests derecho possible overnight parts of New England. Don't let all the capping present concern you. It is not much of factor for overnight convection when an EML is present. One of most sig features of EML convection is crazy overnight LTG shows. Par for course in the Plains, and it works the same when we get it here.

I think much of the general public is wise to all the hype, but it's always the few that yell and screen the loudest, cry foul "WE GOT NOT WARNING!" and worry about everything, and that gets all the attention and skews overall perception. Then you get knee-jerk reactions from politicians and authorities w/ silly changes and waste of resources. Cases in point, Matthew floods in NC/SC in 2016 and Ida floods in NYC in 2021. Warnings and strongly worded high flood risk statements out days in advance up the wazoo, and still politicians and authorities cried foul. It just goes to show even when fcsts are spot on, you still get nonsense. That makes me question this notion that more warnings are better from a social/political standpoint b/c you still get whiners regardless.

If we don’t get an Excessive Heat Watch/Warning, we’ve failed.

I'm glad this was brought up. You know earlier I was thinking what would make these 80 degree dewpoints even better? Smoky skies.

Yes, starting on Sat, it looks quite good for tstms in the Mid-Atlantic! Give us some good training soakers as we need the rain badly.

You have to delete old attachments from prior posts. Go to account and my attachments.

How are you able to upload a Pic? Each time I try it needs to be smaller than 10KB....KB!

BOS only had a high of 89° on the 3rd. But ACK was ahead of their Saturday pace…97° vs 95° at 11am. That ACK temp was pretty remarkable. Upper echelon airmass and they had a due 360 wind coming off the meat of the island. Once that wind went 230 it dropped right into the mid 80s. But yeah Hot Saturday was pretty humid…lots of low to mid 70s dews.

Hello darkness, my old friend.

This looks absolutely insane too. Canada is just dotted with fires seemingly from the Rockies all the way to the Atlantic Coast. What the heck is even burning up near the Arctic Circle? Nuts.