All Activity

Eurasian SNOW COVER SURGING — ANOTHER PIECE OF THE WINTER PUZZLE FALLING INTO PLACE. Northeast Weather Alert 30 minutes ago 3 min read Rated 0 out of 5 stars.No ratings yet The slow start to Eurasian snow-cover expansion is officially behind us, and the latest developments are becoming increasingly interesting as we approach November. Many of you who followed my discussions last winter will remember the attention I gave to Eurasian snow cover and its potential influence on the larger Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Well, we're beginning to see some noteworthy developments once again. The latest NOAA observations show a sharp acceleration in Eurasian snow-cover expansion during the second half of October. More importantly, both the ECMWF operational model and its ensemble guidance support continued above-normal expansion through the remainder of the month. WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING Between October 16 and October 20, observed Eurasian snow cover increased dramatically, climbing from approximately 2.7 million square kilometers to nearly 4.9 million square kilometers across the monitored region. Looking toward October 31, the ECMWF projections indicate: ECMWF Ensemble Mean: Approximately 6.62 million km². ECMWF Operational: Approximately 7.03 million km². Snow Advance Index: Both projections indicate faster expansion than the historical October average. This is a substantial turnaround from the relatively sluggish expansion we witnessed earlier in the month. And this is exactly the type of development I pay attention to when evaluating the potential evolution of our winter pattern. WHY EURASIAN SNOW COVER MATTERS There is an important atmospheric relationship worth understanding here. When snow cover expands rapidly across Eurasia, particularly Siberia, it can promote stronger surface cooling and support the development of an extensive Siberian high-pressure system. Under favorable conditions, this can influence planetary-wave activity, allowing more atmospheric energy to propagate upward into the stratosphere. That interaction can contribute to disturbances of the stratospheric polar vortex, potentially increasing the likelihood of a weaker vortex and a more negative Arctic Oscillation. The relationship isn't automatic, nor does every year with rapid Eurasian snow expansion produce the same winter outcome. Nevertheless, it's an important part of the larger hemispheric circulation that I continue to monitor. WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR THE NORTHEAST Here's where my interest continues to grow. I've been discussing the possibility of a colder second half of winter, particularly from mid-January through March, and the latest Eurasian snow-cover developments are another potentially supportive signal. When combined with the evolving Pacific circulation, QBO, potential high-latitude blocking, and signs of increasing stress on the polar vortex, I see a developing atmospheric picture that deserves serious consideration. I continue to lean toward a colder second-half winter pattern across New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey than some of the prevailing seasonal projections suggest. My interest is not limited to brief Arctic outbreaks. I'm watching the possibility of a more sustained pattern featuring eastern North American troughing, stronger high-latitude blocking, and an increased frequency of cold-air intrusions. Such a pattern could also create more favorable opportunities for winter storm development, provided the necessary moisture and storm tracks cooperate. The rapid expansion of Eurasian snow cover doesn't guarantee those outcomes, but it provides another piece of information as we assess how the atmosphere may evolve. MY OVERALL THINKING What catches my attention is not one isolated atmospheric signal, but the possibility that several different drivers may begin working together as winter progresses. The Eurasian snow-cover expansion, evolving stratospheric circulation, Pacific pattern, and potential changes in the AO and NAO could eventually favor a considerably different weather regime across eastern North America. I remain comfortable with my thinking of a relatively milder first half of winter, followed by a meaningful transition toward colder conditions during the second half. And with what I'm currently seeing, my interest in that colder scenario continues to grow. The next several weeks will be important as we determine whether the developing Eurasian snow-cover pattern is followed by corresponding changes in Siberian high pressure, planetary-wave activity, and the stratospheric polar vortex. My bottom line: The Eurasian snow-cover signal is becoming increasingly impressive, and it's another reason I'm keeping a colder and potentially more active second half of winter firmly in my forecast thinking for the Northeast. There is much more to examine as these atmospheric features continue evolving. I'll bring these signals together in my final 2026–2027 Winter Outlook on November 15, where I'll explain how I believe the larger pattern could unfold across our region. Northeast Weather AlertPattern

Under a huge 500mb Low https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026102200&fh=4

Frost again. 5 nights in a row

My post was purely about the tropical nature of this system vs the Nor Easter a couple weeks ago and the hype surrounding naming that one when it was clearly non-tropical. My post had no mention of land impacts, though both systems have been damaging. Currently Hatteras Island remains in a state of emergency with all land access cut off and emergency ferry service the only option on or off the island. Also, before the system was named, it was a significant high wind event on the OBX with many gusts 50-60 mph recorded during a multi-day stretch.

100% I commend your effort, but we've had this discussion before and the handful of people in here who need to hear that again I don't think are on a cognitive level capable of understanding it. And before you come for my head, yes that makes me sound incredibly conceited, but the few of you I am talking about (and you know who you are) have given me absolutely no objective evidence to the contrary.

I question this because if you aren’t skewing heavily +PNA/-EPO in the mean, how do you end up with heavily negative anomalies in the South?

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus: —————— In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7: ————— In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

More oranges and reds up here than green.

The northern part of “The County” is a very special place.

Yes. Looks like 2028 is the proposed start year.

The Nantucket buoy 44008, has been verifying tropical storm force winds for almost 48 hours straight. And as far as impacts, the outter banks have taken an absolute beating as expected. .

Strong/super Ninos: 1877–1878: 43.4" 1965-66: 15.4" 1972-73: 45.0" 1982–1983: 20.0" 1991–1992: 43.5" 1997–1998: 23.4" 2015–2016: 35.3" 2023-24: 23.5" I expect below avg snow. I disagree about "background state of losing snow in recent years". Due to the snowy 2000s & 2010s, the current 1991-2020 yr avg snow is highest its ever been (45"). The longterm avg is 41". The dip in the 2020s is not at all unexpected. Look at the ebbs and flows since 1880. My comment was moreso aimed at those expecting no snow in northern locations. An absolute joke void of any meteorological reasoning. Last winter was a severe winter due to the cold/snowpack, with suppression being the problem why we didnt have above avg snow. If im throwing out a number for 2026-27, im guessing 30"-ish. The biggest wild card will be a big storm. Should be some big nino storms. They often hit the east coast, but have also hit us (1878, 1992). 2015-2016 had multiple big storms just north of Detroit.

At our rad pit microclimate we've had September frosts 25 of 29 years. The others came in October. When we lived in Fort Kent we had a frost on July 31, 1978 - wounded our pumpkins and killed the neighbor's beans. That August we had a hard freeze at 28.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. Temperatures will fall from the low 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's by morning. Our stretch of beautiful autumnal weather continues through at least the next week! With little to no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal through Sunday before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 3 degrees above normal. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. Temperatures will fall from the low 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's by morning. Our stretch of beautiful autumnal weather continues through at least the next week! With little to no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal through Sunday before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 3 degrees above normal. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

I'd guess that almost all NNE sites other than some tidewater places have had a frost, and most a freeze. 95% leaf drop around here.

Keep hearing of hints of the PV Weakening and elongation. Not enough from the people that matter though!

If this is indeed the most east based event it would also explain a shifted IOD signature instead of it being on the west coast of Indonesia, we see the cool water signature just north of Darwin. Which would put the 'warm' signature side around the SW coast of India. I agree with Typhoontip I look at IOD as a result of ENSO state not additive (the Baja waters could also be argued a result), more so I see PDO as an additive to the overall sentiment of El Nino. I do find it fascinating though we can reach extremely +IOD events in non existent Nino years (ala 2019), yet 2015 barely made it past +1 in the index. Same with Baja, 2023 had a strong cold tongue for an event measured in ONI data near +2. https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/

Pretty impressive reversal from the norm with the historic east based El Niño focusing the heaviest rains relative to the means around San Diego this month. So San Diego is getting the least San Diego-like weather during October from what is normal for them outside El Niños. The CONUS has been getting an unusually warm October pattern for such a strong El Niño.

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus: —————— In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7: ————— In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

my opinion is that the +IOD and the +ENSO are all a part of the same super structure, exposed by observing the totality of the Walker construct. - whether aware or not... when evaluating either we are just in a quadrature (tranche) of that whole structure. The DVM tendencies over the eastern limb ( ^ ) of the +IOD mode is actually the western limb of the DVM associated with the Pacific Walker circulation. and so forth... The reason I see that distinction as important is because ... particularly in this incredibly wholesale immense +ENSO planetary state, there's likely to be less ability for permutations in the IOD domain to really mean anything because that region is subsumed by the whole/thus indicative of that larger magnitude. I don't think it is adding or "boosting" in this case...? Given to the above totality, it's already integrated already added in/accounting for in other words. But it does offer an intriguing idea after the fact ... that integration may create secondary feedbacks (synergistic amplitudes in either positive or negative direction).

West Virginia color was pretty good when I was out there in early October. Driving through Monetary area last weekend after my snow hike and the colors were in peak and looked pretty. Then again, areas further west and south of NOVA were spared from the drought, and so far colors around Charlottesville haven’t been great.

I was thinking the whole electric/spark, and water being a conductor thing…should do the job of damaging a life form somewhat..?