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I know for a blizzard criteria temps in the teens and winds higher then 20 mph mostly it doesnt depend on heavy snow but high winds and temps in the teens. atm my high is now only 15 this would bring me to 20-1 ratio which during yesterday was said to be a stretch we would be in the mid teens during the snow they were looking at temps 18-20 yesterday but ty for the reply

So the banana highs are just too wide and weaker and that's why the low cuts up through TN on higher res models? I'm trying to understand the basics here. Ending the event on rain and a squall line is just wild to me considering what we've been watching on the models all week. Granted, I'm glad the heavy rain can wash away all the ice and prevent hardships, even if it hurts my inner weenie. Edit: Looking at the 06z NAM.

yikes..not a great trend here at 0z.

Was out at poker night but am now caught up and would love for the GFS or AIFS/AIGFS to be right and give most of CNJ and the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and the coast and my house very little sleet/ZR, but we've seen too many times when the WAA is undermodeled and with several other models showing 25-40% of the QPF falling as sleet, mostly, with a bit of ZR it seems quite possible we'll at least get 33% as sleet/ZR. Here's some thoughts for how to look at that. I still think mets need to find a way to report total frozen mass in mixed precip events as frozen mass is much better correlated to impacts than simple depth. I have to say this at least once a day, lol. Seeing QPFs of 0.9-1.5" across the models, if I take 1.2" as the QPF and have 66% of it be snow, that's 0.8" as snow and 0.4" as sleet/ZR, so let's say that's 0.3" as sleet and 0.1" as ZR. At 13:1 SLR (the rough ratio seen on the NBM through 0Z Monday when many models switch to sleet), the 0.8" QPF as snow is 10.4" of 13:1 snow, the 0.3" of QPF as sleet is 0.9" of sleet for a depth of 11.3" and the 0.1" of QPF as ZR has no depth as it's just absorbed into the snow/sleet pack although some compaction and freezing will occur, especially near the top Bottom line this could end up having 10" of depth after compaction containing 1.2" of QPF which has a top several inches being frozen solid with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. This is a friggin' mess to drive in, walk on, plow, shovel, etc., and likely worse than dealing with that same 1.2" QPF of frozen mass as pure 15:1 snow or 18" of depth. Won't be nearly as pretty, but will be as or more impactful. And if there's more like 50% of the 1.2" QPF as snow (7.8" at 13:1) and 50% of the QPF as sleet and no ZR (2" of sleet at 3:1), that's 9.8" of depth and keep in mind that sleet melts much more slowly than snow as it has a far lower exposed surface area per unit volume.

DT/WxRisk's first guess map is the best one I've seen and I'd say I'm very aligned with it, as it has most of CNJ and 95 from Philly to NYC in the 8-12" of snow swath and noting that much of that area would also be receiving sleet; he doesn't specify how much sleet, but it's part of the 8-12" of "snow". I also like his 12-18" area with no sleet beginning around 78, which is a good guess. I might have his light blue area with a changeover to sleet/ZR all the way up to 78, though. I know he's a polarizing figure, but I like his work sometimes. The new NWS maps and discussion aren't up yet, but they did update their winter storm watches, below, which essentially have 12-17" of snow (and some sleet and up to 0.1" of ZR) for the counties N of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and Ocean), while they have 8-15" of snow and sleet with up to 0.25" of freezing rain for the counties S of 276/195 in SE PA/SNJ and DE. This is more realistic and in-line with my post above on DT's forecast. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 127 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery- ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 15 inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 127 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Carbon- Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 17 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch possible.

Well, I'm not trying to be a dick, buddy. but a lot of these guys here aren't going to take kindly to the back and forth between me and you with a event of this nature coming into the short range. I don't know exactly what defines a blizzard but at this point the national weather service is either not seeing or are anticipating we meet the criteria. Furthermore if they are going to put out a blizzard warning, they have to be confident that they know where the criteria will be met. Once that's pinned down., maybe we'll see something like that somewhere. As far as duration no one can give you an accurate answer on that yet with this particular storm.

Lol they updated the graphic for socials - all of 21 minutes after the first one.

New Bedford isn't getting 2 feet of snow! This is complete and utter madness! I live in Newport. I'm not getting over a foot of snow! I'll probably change to plain rain. These north tics in these SWFE type events are relentless. It'll sag south a bit at the eleventh hour but not enough to salvage this utterly preposterous forecast.

pretty good model agreement now.. goodluck with that

Omg we're back. Im thinking 6 around Richmond

My forecast says snow likely, moderate snow accumulation Saturday, high near 32, sat night snow likely, mixing with sleet and freezing rain, changing to all freezing rain after midnight, moderate snow accumulation, low near 24, it doesn't mention ice accumulation totals at all.

This is pretty reasonable.

This'll be reduced, dramatically! But we'll save it for entertainment purposes.

2 questions with winds this high and temps in the teens and heavy snowfall why isnt the blizzard word being used? also 2 is the storm lasting longer then earlier model runs from today last night? saw 2 diff models in videos today showing snowing monday afternoon till 4 instead of wrapping up like 2am

I decided to go ahead and post the rest of the the discussion I'm thinking some of you fellas might like it archived here. Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we are predicting the most significant accumulations in the past 5+ years, feel free to read on through the remainder of this KEY MESSAGE 2 discussion. We`ve had our fair share of cold snaps this winter season, and tomorrow (Friday) will be no exception after the next Arctic front pushes through. A large factor driving all this cold weather has been the Polar Vortex displaced from the North Pole, with a tendency for the vortex to find itself over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. With displacement that far south, we`ve gotten plenty of cold air, but it`s also nudged the storm track south of our area for many of the recent events. If you`ve ever heard people say "it`s too cold to snow", it`s not that it`s physically too cold to snow, it usually just means that the storm track has shifted far enough to the south that we end up under dry high pressure while our temps are cold. One key difference this time is the influence of a Pacific storm, located off the coast of southern California this evening, and a strengthening subtropical jet to its south. Over the next 24 hours these features will cross the Baja Peninsula of Mexico and then into Texas. Southwesterly flow out ahead of this southern stream feature will pump warmer air into the Gulf Coast and Southeastern US Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, a northern stream shortwave trough coming down from western Canada into the Great Plains will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the back side of the northern longwave trough. The increasing temperature gradients will result in an overall increase in wind speed aloft at jet stream altitude, and an amplification of the northern stream trough and ridge. By Sunday, the right entrance region of the northern jet and the left exit region of the southern jet will align to produce enhanced upward motion through the troposphere. Remaining uncertainty in the forecast largely depends on the degree of phasing of these two jets, the angle at which they align, and how much amplification there is of the ridge out ahead of the deepening trough. The very cold air in place ahead of this system also plays other crucial roles to increase impacts. At 00Z Sunday, model consensus depicts a 1040+ mb high over New York State, which only slowly moves northeastward across New England over the next 24 hours. The deep, cold blocking high to the northeast of a winter storm is a textbook feature that supplies a stream of cold air down the Alleghenies and provides a cold dome for warmer, less dense air parcels streaming in from the southwest to ascend over. That upward motion is key to production of hydrometeors - in this case snow. And then there is the key role that cold temperatures have on ice crystal habits. The so called "dendritic growth zone" exists where temperatures are between roughly 0F and 10F. Given low temperatures Saturday night in the single digits, some spots might start off with a DGZ that extends from the ground up 10,000 to 15,000 feet which is pretty remarkable for a large synoptic storm in this region. As long as the column saturates quickly enough, any snow that falls late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning could be very high ratio, fluffy, rapidly accumulating snow that consists of many pristine dendrites (SLRs 15-20:1, could be even higher if the column saturates faster but there is dry air at low levels to overcome at onset). So after a few hours of virga, accumulations have the potential to begin with a vengeance in the predawn hours Sunday, especially from I-80 south. KEY MESSAGE 3: Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills expected next Monday all the way through next weekend. A prolonged stretch of frigid temperatures continues next week through the end of January (next weekend). After the cold snap Fri night - Sat, the next round of cold wx headlines (-10 to -20F wind chills) is likely Monday night through Tuesday morning. Given the prolonged nature of the bitter cold, we may begin to see more infrastructure impacts (frozen pipes) by next week. Occasional lake effect/upslope snow showers are likely next week under a very cold cyclonic flow aloft.

Think they have removed the ice accumulation from your point forecast.

HHHR is impressive for the forum. Another trend south mostly and temp profiles are colder. I’m currently at 29 imby. .

They made that mistake 2 years ago. .

New BOX map LFG!!!!

Another forecast discussion should be available in about an 1.5 hours, but I still feel this was a pretty interesting read, with a lot more explanation then generally seen. It's a very lengthy discussion, so I only posted part of it here, the rest will be in the link if anybody wants to read it before the next update. 436 FXUS61 KCTP 230420 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1120 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing chances for heavy snow this weekend. More details provided in discussion section. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning 2) Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. 3) Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills expected next Monday all the way through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.Arctic air is poised to return to the forecast area - filtering in from northwest to southeast through Friday night. High confidence in -10 to -20F wind chills across all of central PA Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning approaching extreme cold criteria in the Laurel Highlands. Frigid Arctic air will remain in place prior to the onset of the significant winter storm this weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday night through Monday morning, heaviest on Sunday. Snow accumulations will likely begin with a vengeance from south to north in the predawn hours Sunday. Periods with snowfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour are becoming increasingly likely in the isentropic ascent early Sunday and as low and midlevel frontogenesis becomes stronger later in the day and evening. Given the dry, fluffy snow and wind gusts of 15-30 mph, there will likely be some blowing and drifting. There could be a period of sleet especially across the southern tier Sunday evening cutting into snow totals just a bit, but not before double digit accumulations are expected to fall.While warm advective, front-end snow is becoming increasingly likely, there is considerable model uncertainty with the placement of a comma head area of snowfall as a secondary low pressure system develops offshore (in a Miller B type evolution). If the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night, several additional inches of accumulation are possible. However, if it misses us to the north and we see more of a dry slot, that would result in snow ending sooner Sunday evening with less accumulation overnight. All in all, the probability of snowfall amounts exceeding 12inches has increased to 60-80 percent across much of central PA. The probability of more than 18 inches ranges from 15 to 40 percent. Amounts near 24 inches can`t be ruled out (10 percent chance) especially if the comma head sits over central PA Sunday night. Always prepare for the worst case scenario and continue to check the forecast as it evolves. Now is the time to prepare. Think snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember it will be very cold before, during and after the storm. Never run a generator indoors due to carbon monoxide. Now if you really enjoy meteorology and want to know *why* we are predicting the most significant accumulations. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Watches up now here. BTV still highlighting potential for greater than 20:1 ratios which seems extreme but we’d take.

I haven't looked.

Have you read MRX 1am AFD..almost sounds like south of 40 in the valley will be lucky to get a WWA.

Now that we are in the final 24 hours, I have to step back and be objective here, I think the models don't handle the warm air layer well. WAA might be stronger than indicated causing a lot of the snow to become sleet as I remember this happening with one of our big winter storms just last year after the models went nuts with 12+ beforehand. Likely this will be an issue during the first wave until the cold air layer deepens. Especially areas further south and east of US60 and I-35. Might be best to take these totals and half them. With that being said the QPF is still holding steady if not increasing. Many may still see close to a foot of snow. Just my two cents.

Oh they will, but the damage has been done. In the past they have dug in and said so it was mostly sleet so what… see March 2017. At least this time we will go in knowing not to expect big snows. This crap will not be easy to clean and the ERs are gonna be busy. The biggest danger here is going to be for middle aged men.