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I hope your right.

Thanks! We have season passes and always walk through Zoo America to say hi to the animals

probably downpours are the biggest threat with this....

Hearing thunder already from a cell just off to my west.

I personally think it won't be anything too significant. Lots of cloud cover in place. Destabilizing activity moving in now. Most enhanced or higher risks tend to disappoint for whatever reason

Air quality back to 182 here. Hopefully it ends soon because i want to take my kid out.

Low of 68. Not entirely sure what to expect today as there’s quite a difference with the models in terms of timing/location/intensity. Just hoping no one suffers any damage. At least we get the smoke out of here this afternoon.

The rain that fell last week around DC wasn’t enough to keep up with climo. DCA now -7.44” ytd.

So much hype already on social media

Have fun, check out the road runners in the zoo!

SPC AC 181219 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible, including perhaps a strong tornado. ...OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast over the Upper Great Lakes towards the Northeast during the period. The primary upper vorticity max will rotate through the base of the larger-scale trough and through the St. Lawrence Valley, before an upstream disturbance west of James Bay this morning pivots southeast and reaches Maine/eastern Quebec by early Sunday. Surface analysis this morning places a 1004-mb low north of Georgian Bay and a cold front extending west-southwestward into northern IA. An attendant warm front arching southeastward through the Lower Great Lakes and draped over the Mid-Atlantic states will advance northward as the cyclone develops east towards northern Maine by late evening. Concurrently, the cold front will push southeast across much of Great Lakes into the OH Valley. South of the boundary, a very moist air mass was sampled this morning by 12 UTC raobs and surface observations (i.e., upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints). A few thunderstorm clusters this morning have developed near the warm frontal zone from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic states. The early day storm activity will likely be limited in storm vigor, due in part to initially widespread cloud cover inhibiting strong heating in the areas downstream over parts of PA/NY. Gradual dissipation of clouds and heating coupled with the northeastward advancement of the warm sector will promote a broad area to become moderately to strongly unstable later today (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) from the OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. A belt of westerly 30-45 kt 700-mb flow from northern VA into the Northeast will aid in storm organization and severe potential this afternoon and evening. Models differ substantially regarding evolution/timing of possible bands of storms and clusters with embedded cells. Regardless of specific details, it seems plausible several multicellular bands of storms will develop during peak heating and organize as these bands move east. Some of the more intense cells will potentially become supercellular posing an all-hazards severe risk. Have largely unchanged the previous outlook given the inherent thunderstorm evolution-based uncertainties. Potentially widespread damaging gusts [50-60 mph, locally stronger (55-70 mph) perhaps paralleling the I-95 corridor from Chesapeake Bay into southern New England]. A few tornadoes are possible both from linear and cellular storm structures given some low-level hodograph enlargement and moist low levels.

Records: Highs: EWR: 104 (2012) NYC: 101 (1953) LGA: 101 (2012) JFK: 100 (2013) Lows: EWR: 58 (1946) NYC: 57 (1925) LGA: 62 (1962) JFK: 58 (1962) Historical: 1889 - A cloudburst in West Virginia along the small creeks in Wirt County, Jackson County and Wood County claimed twenty lives. Rockport, WV, reported nineteen inches of rain in two hours and ten minutes that Thursday evening. Tygart Creek rose 22 feet in one hour, and villages were swept away on Tygart, Slate, Tucker, and Sandy Creeks. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The all time record high temperature for the state of Kansas was set when a 121-degree high temperature fried Fredonia. (US National Weather Service Wichita) 1936: This day marked the end of the hottest period on record for La Crosse, WI. From the 5th through the 18th, temperatures climbed to 90° or better everyday, and at or above 100° eight times. During this time six record temperatures were set and the average high temperatures for the period was 101.0°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1942: A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. The following U.S. records were set at Smethport, PA: rainfall in three hours: 28.50 inches, rainfall in 4 hours and 30 minutes: 30.70 inches and 12-hour rainfall: 34.30 inches.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1942 - A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. (David Ludlum) 1970: A tropical depression formed east of the Yucatan Peninsula. As the system developed into Tropical Storm Becky, it provided National Hurricane Center forecasters their first opportunity to study the evolution of a tropical cyclone with the aid of time-lapse movies of ATS (Applications Technology Satellite) photographs in real time, or, The Movie Loop. Becky moved into the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: Heavy rain, unofficially measured at 10 to 11 inches, fell in the Mooreland and Mutual areas of Woodward County Oklahoma. The heavy rain caused severe soil erosion, but crop damage was minimal, as wheat already had been harvested. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986 - One of the most photo-genic tornadoes touched down in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis, MN, during the late afternoon. The very slow moving tornado actually appeared live on the evening news by way of an aerial video taken by the KARE-TV helicopter crew. The tornado, unlike most, was quite the prima donna, staying visible to tens of thousands of persons for thirty minutes. It was moderate in intensity, with winds of 113-157 mph, and caused 650 thousand dollars damage. (Storm Data) 1987 - Cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alamosa, CO, with a reading of 38 degrees. The low of 52 degrees at Bakersfield, CA, was a record for July. Up to eight inches of snow covered the Northern Sierra Nevada Range of California from a storm the previous day. During that storm, winds gusting to 52 mph at Slide Mountain, NV, produced a wind chill reading of 20 degrees below zero. Susanville, CA, reached 17 degrees that previous day, Blue Canyon, CA, dipped to a July record of 36 degrees, and the high of 44 degrees at Klamath Falls, OR, smashed their previous record for July by ten degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sweltering heat continued in California, with record highs of 111 degrees at Redding and 112 degrees at Sacramento. Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central Plains Region produced baseball size hail at Kimball, NE, wind gusts to 79 mph at Colby, KS, and six inches of rain near Lexington, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, northern Texas and Arkansas during the afternoon, and into the night. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Stamford, TX, and wind gusts to 92 mph near Throckmorton, TX. Record heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 115 degrees, and a 111 degree reading at Midland, TX, was second only to their all-time record high of 112 degrees established sixteen days earlier. (The National Weather Summary) 1992: On this date through the 18th, Thunderstorms crossed Wayne County in western New York State dumping heavy rains over already saturated grounds and swollen streams. Rainfall amounts exceeded six inches in two hours on the 17th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: In south central Kansas, heavy rains in and around Stafford County caused flooding of the normally dry Antelope Creek. Flooding of roads and streets began in Radium during the morning hours. The flooding continued until the morning hours on the 19th. This was the worst flooding in Radium since the spring of 1973. Flooding continued until about 9 am on the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: An F5 tornado struck Oakfield, WI during the evening, injuring 17 people and destroying 47 of the 320 homes in the town. Damage estimates totaled over $40 million dollars. In addition, 56 homes as well as numerous businesses and churches sustained heavy damage. A massive rainstorm in north central and northeast Illinois led to widespread flooding. Aurora reported 16.91 inches of rain, establishing a state record for the most rain in a single day. Other heavy totals included 13.60 inches at Joliet, 9.24 inches in Wheaton, 8.09 inches in DeKalb, and 7.82 inches at Elgin. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Hurricane warnings were posted along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama as Hurricane Danny headed toward shore, first brushing southeastern Louisiana where tropical storm force winds and high tides caused severe erosion. Grand Isle, LA recorded a wind gust to 95 mph shortly before midnight. 100 mph winds and torrential rains, downed power lines, damaged or sunk boats and left flooding in its wake. Thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and brought high winds and large hail to the western southern tier, Niagara frontier and Genesee Valley in western New York State. A 74 mph gust was recorded in Orchard Park. Hail, as large as golf balls, damaged crops in Niagara and Orleans counties. Several fires were reported as a result of lightning strikes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Miles City, MT set their all-time high temperature record with 113°. Highs of 100° or higher occurred 6 times between the 12th through the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) . 2008: A man and a woman went outside a home in Standish, ME to get a pair of sunglasses the family dog had taken from 1 of the 3 young children inside. Unfortunately, lightning hit a nearby tree, then traveled through the ground, killing both people. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2010: Thunderstorm winds gusted to 72 mph at BWI late evening on 18th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

Easily the strongest east based El Niño in recent recorded history

We’ll have to see after the first batch gets thru around 1 pm or so and see how much clearing and destabilization occurs for the 2nd line later. The less action in the first line will help out for stronger action later. Hopefully the Mesoscale models pick up on the action in a few hours. So it’s wait and see for a little bit. SPC will have an update in a few minutes, we’ll see their thoughts.

73 / 64 clouds some smoke, storms into SNJ and PA now. Front is meeting some resistance from the Atlantic ridge which is pumpig more humid flow north today. We'll see if we can clear out any to fuel stronger storms this afternoon, it is looking to stay cloudy and maybe the main threat will be flash floodings where storms form, but still severe threat through the afternoon. Clears out for a marvelous Sunday / Monday as trough pushes drier cooler air. Southerly flow pumps humid and next threat of heavy rain/storms Tuesday / Wedneday before clearing out Thursday. Overall trough into the northeast 7/19 - 7/24. Beyond there near normal 7/25 with moderation and warming towards the 27th as western heat begins to build and come east. 7/18 : Storms heavy rain 7/19 - 7/20 : Gorgeous Word Cup game 7/21 - 7/22: Rain / heavy rain / storms >1 inch widespread 7/23 - 7/27 : near 0- below normal overall 7/27 - beyond : warming western heat builds and starts coming east.

Once again the high wind potential is the greatest threat later today

Thanks.

good question

The WPC qpf output is a lot more robust for seacoast NH than model guidance consensus. The storms developing near Rochester NY hold together and swing through this afternoon.

Looks steined up this way. Good luck to west/south

Am I crazy or do the models have very little?