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Looks kinda like it should snow on us based on the gfs progression.

Cape storm is a painful watch as the shortwaves just destructively interfere with each other and ruin the setup. Luckily I don't think it would've taken much to change that into a hit.

Heavy snow squall very windy everything covered

Can you spot the error? 18z is on the left. 0z from last night is on the right. It isn't just the little system in the PAC. It is the unrealistic fetch and completely wonky northern stream depiction. The 0z run last night was just a really, really, really bad run from a model standpoint IMHO. Now, that 18z is running...we see a realistic system which "might" increase precip w/ future runs.

Its pure suck. Prominent low is over the GLs. Coastal low will be too far north.

If we get even more separation like the 18z showed, it may allow this thing to explode even more closer to New Jersey giving all of us a nice blow....

That was a good afd by MRX. They haven’t been as well written lately, but that’s probably bc there was nothing to talk about until now ha!

I thought this had a chance to be a significant system. Still think that’s a possibility, but it looks fairly progressive on modeling with light precip that weakens as it moves east toward the coast. Need to see midweek first I think……

Prob a warning event for SE areas that run. Not totally surprising as the 12z GEFS were kind of bullish.

Yes CMC

3.9 is more likely. We suck you know it and I know it.

You mean cmc? Gfs was the only one with it.

Not a good run so far lol. 0 for 2

Something told me it may be trouble when the Euro and GFS wanted nothing to do with it

Probably wouldn't label it a trend seeing its been hit or miss from run to run.

It’s real. She coming, EOR favored, but everyone gets in on it.

“Cape” storm is capped

With my analytical post I don't think its time to cliff jump yet; this storm is just way too complicated to know if that change is real or imagined. However, if we continue to see the GFS (and Euro moves to it) fail to consolidate around a southern vort max by tomorrow at 12zish or absolute latest tomorrow 0z I think then it is time to call it.

Th 18z AI GFS(yeah, I know) is wild. I really wish it had winter numbers for ice and snow. As is, you are left to guess. I do think ice is a huge risk w/ this pattern. The 18z GFS has two, light snow events...the 17th event has a bit more moisture. Read the advice from MRX regarding northern stream systems. Let's see if the 17th system doesn't start to add back some moisture during the next few runs. It is just now coming out of the 5-7 window where sometimes systems get "lost" and still might be a couple of runs from exiting that window.

sounds like the only window this season where models are showing real cold air combined with a real southern stream. my bar is set at 39 inches

Lol.. It was not in board. It showed mild support, but was never super sold on the idea. But the euro has let us down a lot this year too.. I would be drought free and in a surplus if we got the rain it has shown.

Trending or a head fake? It feels like the next 2-3 weeks is going to be either all or nothing. Hope we go on one of those hot streaks for once....

I’ve moved onto Jan 24 - just one more punt. This was always the real window

Two separate 5 minute squalls came thru here today, one at noon, other around 2:30 pm. Both coated everything then done, but pretty as it fell. Currently 30.3/14.5 at 5 pm with W 12 gusting 22 winds. That is one thing we haven't missed on, gusts between 30-40 mph all day.

nobody believed the GFS. We were hoping for a miracle that it was seeing something the other models were not