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I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts.

Let’s get a tick or two east on euro.

6Z EPS stops at 6 days. 0Z EPS was pretty meh.

Yes, that shows the IVT coming all the way up here which is possible with the right alignment and a strong trough

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 MDZ006-008-011-503-505>508-061530- /O.CON.KLWX.EC.W.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.HW.W.0001.260207T0900Z-260208T0000Z/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- 219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 ...EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Extreme Cold Warning, dangerously cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero expected. * WHERE...Central and Southeast Howard, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Cecil, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Southeast Harford, and Southern Baltimore Counties. * WHEN...For the Extreme Cold Warning, from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday. For the High Wind Warning, from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will remain at or below zero during the day on Saturday due to windy conditions and cold temperatures. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive. Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water. Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside. && $$

I'm assuming the regular eps isn't nearly as Gung go as the AI counterparts since no one is posting them

I like where I live for a decent little event. Won't be surprised...

Another comparison: 24 hour precip ending next Sunday 7pm WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z also improved.

Low of 14. A rough average of all the models this morning has us getting about .6" of snow down this way this evening. It's a shame that arctic front isn't moving through a few hours earlier tonight because, as it stands, we're looking at one heck of a midnight high for tomorrow. Happy Friday, all.

Everyday we are getting closer! How Many Days Until Spring? Time Remaining Until Spring: March 20, 2026 42 days 1 month 14 days 6 weeks 1,008 hours

WB 6Z AI EPS compared to 0Z for next Sunday am looks North and stronger to me.

Here is the AI EPS 72 hour snow from 2/13 am to 2/16 am. Here is also the 50th percentile map through 2/13 am & through 2/16 am. Very little snow falls before 2/13, so the window for next weekend is evident at least in terms of snow maps.

Very dry overall. Looks like the whole country has some drought conditions

This is why mean snowfall at range is of limited value. Difficult to know what each member is keying on for precip. The lazy thing to do is to guess that its simply timing differences wrt one wave and take the total over 3-4 days.

Gotta say the machines are pretty, pretty good. Pretty, pretty, good…

Here is the AI EPS 72 hour snow from 2/13 am to 2/16 am. Here is also the 50th percentile map through 2/13 am & through 2/16 am. Very little snow falls before 2/13, so the window for next weekend is evident at least in terms of snow maps.

You'll probably get 2-3".

Either way, it’s not here. Can barely contain my excitement for a half inch of wild blown snow and 10 tons of salt on the road

Something overlooked is how dry things have been and how we're all technically in a drought. Reservoirs are extremely low vs average.

This clipper is starting to look like a dud. Radar looks pretty sparse so far. Hope I’m wrong.

light meaning snow and rain and above freezing according to Upton

Hopefully phase 3 occurrs by 1st week of March (considering lag).

Before I zoomed in i thought that was a bunch of snow geese or swans sitting on the pylons