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Too bad we had a Nina STJ this year. It was a nina-stj last winter too. Too bad, the AO was favorable

We never have a good chance of an all snow event in any pattern

I'll probably give it a 3% chance for all snow at this point. 15% chance for some snow at some point, at least on I95.

But that has nothing to do with my point. You’re focused on this synoptic setup and I’m focused on something that’s skewing the underlying pattern behind the synoptic setup

It sure was.

Things being nearby is overrated. Burnsville and Spruce Pine have pretty much anything I need. You just better not need something after 12 on Saturday lol. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Depends on whether there is a storm or not. It will be a lot warmer if it’s sunny than raining or snowing.

Let’s put it this way, if this ends up as widespread 4-6” over eastern regions, this winter will be making some headway continuing to stay ahead of the chains.

Something like 31/762 cases does not support a forecast position.. What's your call on High temps Feb 15-16?

We snowed with a -pna in the past. Not when it’s -4stdv you’re right. But why is it that when the pna goes negative it’s never -1 it’s -3 now? You’re beating around it.

I could see having gone 2-4"...but 4-6" is too much IMO.

Boring. Your map of snow events completely missed the +450 Aleutian anomaly. This coming storm is not a good platform to base this "it doesn't snow anymore in marginal" stance.

Just cleared up some space.

Maybe Steve will be right and I undersold it....all weenies aside. That is a valid reason I didn't think about...time will tell.

Chuck even recently 75% of the globe is red. We just got lucky the tiny speck of cold was over us. But what about the rest of the time? How do we snow when we’re not lucky enough to have the rare cold anomaly over us when the rest of the globe is a hopeless torch of +anomalies too warm to us to snow. You said it. We don’t her marginal anymore. Because the whole planet is tiny pockets of cold surrounded by warmth.

GFS got juicier again.

Ha fair point. I'm not sure if Boone really qualifies as having "things" but the map does look pretty spot on for my area of the county at least. Seven Devils would be a good option- I live in Foscoe just down from it and the upper end towards Hawks Nest does really, really well. The Tynecastle/Banner Elk area as a whole is pretty solid with a pretty big drop-off towards Valle Crucis to the north and Linville to the south. Obviously Beech is fantastic but the trek up and down can get annoying.

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

Will use this in some of my argumentative essays for my modern political theory class. Thank you

You were sooooo close

Ride the chart! The frostiest ones you can find!!

Btw for those trying to understand PSU's argument about higher heights in the 500mb layer as a result of climate change here are some slides from my fall course about how geopotential height works. Basically, higher heights are caused by a thicker slice of atmosphere below the 500mb layer. Warmer air is a thicker slice of air due to the Ideal Gas Law.

Light snow in Mammoth Mtn ski resort!!! It's been 5 weeks since the last snow lol https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

You serious? Depends on the situation. For example I’ve been forced to advocate for positions I knew were weak and not clear winning arguments. What you do in those cases is very different. Then it becomes about minimizing damage. Attempting to deflect and exaggerate. But if you know the point you want to make is valid…1) focus on 2-3 points no more. 2) know how to articulate it clearly. 3) don’t let the other person deflect. When they try to take the debate off on a tangent redirect and reframe it back where you need it.