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Did Wiz hijack your account? Triple this:

There are some questions about tomorrow's setup, the big one, being the possible lack of instability. What started off looking like could be an anomalous storm season for cpa fell off a cliff quick. Instability and weak capping has been about as hard to come by the spring, as any of i've seen. That said, we all know big shifts are taking place right now so let's see what happens. Seems like we're moving in the right direction for increased convection opportunities and most importantly precipitation.

I made a series of posts regarding the Winter, and things to watch out for later this year, in the Mid-Atlantic forum, starting here:

Subsurface is warming again. Eastern subsurface is about to pop a +8c on TAO/Triton. If normal water is 65F, that's almost 80 degrees, 100 meters below the surface. In La nina it can possibly cool down to 55F, so it must be interesting the type of wildlife that has evolved there, along the equator.

101 at 4:26pm. Had about 5 raindrops hit my car driving past the State Fairgrounds.

Tomorrow night is a little intriguing. Could be some triple point convection moving through.

77* and a great breeze. June FTW.

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis - Archive Viewer. You can loop this and see what I mentioned above.

Nothing like a good cold front to knock the temps down

...perhaps a "LID" was probably partly to blame----Nothing really strong enough to break it in past I-77? Used the sounding from GSO 00Z, since any convection was to be around that time frame across central NC. Relative humidity levels between 500 and 700 relatively low, evident on sounding, but maybe part of why little convection took place over the central NC. Always pieces to a puzzle. Just my thoughts.

High of 90F at DCA, 12th of the year thus far.

Of course.

It felt that way then the sun broke containment, 98.1

Im kinda skeptic you see any big change in the SST'S in the east.Seems like we are fixing to see a WWB getting combatted with possibly a strong EWB,which is why you see the RMMS showing a decent signal into the WP when we get into July and beyond,other than that maybe a ERW off the Peruvian coast which could possibly warm 3 up,should not be much going on well into July

Now this is summer. 86/55

best chance of severe yes. But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized

That seems like a huge change. If they changed their methodology that much then it's hard to take the past numbers seriously. It's almost annoying actually. lol

Subtle changes for 18z lol

Seems like NYC south and CNE/ NNE. Just scattered at best SNE

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low.

So drought is ok because you loathe mowing, but you miss the rain because the grass is brown. I think this is a 'you cant have it both ways' deal.

Looks like 7/10 split for SNE overall

89/56

Ah that day was legit. I remember watching the radar and was quite impressed. That event is proof positive we can get several major tornadoes on the same day in the northeast and mid atlantic.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130753 SPC AC 130753 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds. This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass. While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft