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23-24 was "la nino" which I'm afraid we are on pace to repeat. Dec-Mar was very wet though, so line up a -NAO and it could be good just like other Strong Nino's. DJF NAO 23-24 was +1.10/month that Winter.. since March is not recently much of a Winter month

Hope its COC too. The over dramatic posts about 6 hrs of 90s is pretty funny. Just like those 20 degree days in Nov get people pumped , but it's faux winter, still a month away from deep deep summer but this preview is sweet

Just saying what my wunderground forecast shows. I’m sorry it’s not showing blazing heat and humidity. Don’t take offense to it

Bombed ?

not to bad outside a little warm but their was nice breeze blowing.

And it’s gone. Realistic hope is to get some action as the boundary reignites just to my west in the early afternoon.

Cold morning inland with temps running in the 30's with some 20's. Ash Lake (SE of I-Falls) had a 24 reading.

We will see a brief stretch of above normal temperature days through mid-week before we turn back to below normal temperatures by Thursday and through the Memorial Day Weekend. Many lower valley locations should reach 90 degrees both tomorrow and Tuesday. Higher spots across Chester County will always struggle to touch 90. Rain chances increase by Wednesday PM with the cold front, and it does look a bit unsettled as we move into the holiday weekend.

We will see a brief stretch of above normal temperature days through mid-week before we turn back to below normal temperatures by Thursday and through the Memorial Day Weekend. Many lower valley locations should reach 90 degrees both tomorrow and Tuesday. Higher spots across Chester County will always struggle to touch 90. Rain chances increase by Wednesday PM with the cold front, and it does look a bit unsettled as we move into the holiday weekend.

A lot of it will come down to timing. Latest runs are playing nice, but a little change here and there could muck up a day or two.

DJFM averaged out positive, +0.05/month. December had -0.97 but +EPO overwhelmed it. the negative H5 in the pacific extended north to +EPO that Winter, which dominated. It had short periods of blocking.

Lots of 60s and 70s on the gfs and euro. 70s on both models for Memorial Day.

Summer

The 97-98 winter actually had -NAO/-AO blocking

Nice little shower event!!!!

Yeah, a pure 82-83 or 97-98 type Nino wouldn't be bad if it happened like 6 times out of 10. you might still get above average temps, but line up a -NAO with the STJ... I contend that +NAO isn't a constant with east-based Nino's like history suggests, It's more random than it appears in limited analogs.

Absolutely. This is what I have been getting at with the RONI focus.

May 17 1915: Old man winter's last hurrah dumps 5 inches of snow along the western shore of Lake Superior. For Sunday, May 17, 2026 1883 - A three day flood in the Black Hills of western South Dakota resulted in a million dollars damage at Rapid City. (David Ludlum) 1979 - A reading of 12 degrees at Mauna Kea Observatory established an all-time record low for the state of Hawaii. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - A golfer playing the Fox Meadows Course in Memphis TN was struck by a bolt of lightning that went through his neck, down his spine, came out a pocket containing his keys, and went into a nearby tree. Miraculously, he survived! (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A summer-like weather pattern continued, with warm temperatures and scattered thunderstorms across much of the nation. A cold front in the north central U.S. produced a sharp contrast in the weather across the state of Minnesota during the afternoon. At the same time Duluth was 50 degrees with rain and fog, Mankato was 95 degrees with sunny skies. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds over the Carolinas during the afternoon and evening. A "thunderstorm of a lifetime" in northern Spartanburg County, SC, produced hail for forty-five minutes, leaving some places knee-deep in hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms ravaged the south central U.S. with severe weather for the third day in a row. Thunderstorms spawned another nineteen tornadoes, for a total of fifty tornadoes in three days. A strong (F-2) tornado injured 14 persons and caused two million dollars damage at Apple Springs TX. Baseball size hail was reported at Matador TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in New York State during the late morning and afternoon. A tornado injured one person at Warren, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Owego. Evening thunderstorms over southwest Texas produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Marfa, along with golf ball size hail which accumulated to a depth of ten inches. Late night thunderstorms over southwest Texas produced up to seven inches of rain in western Crockett County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

These next 3-4 days will be nice but forecast for the holiday weekend is low 60’s/50’s with clouds and rain Fri straight through Monday. That’ll def spoil a lot of plans if it plays out like that

30% containment on the fire. Winds are switching to the NE off the Lake. Any flare ups could send sparks over the fire lines. But looks like plenty of rain tonight thru Tues a.m., so that should squash this thing.

lol… gonna be a real nice day here in S Town! Thanks for the shout Brian W.

So tough for the higher spots out here in Chesco to touch 90....but it will be close. Valley spots will certainly get above 90

This is the start of a very warm pattern for CONUS, to finish out May. I wonder if we're going to start doing what we were doing a few years ago where when the actual day is mild or ridgy, the long range models adjust for the same pattern in the extended. 80F here at 10am

Not misleading at all simply presenting the actual climate data for the county. You are just as always attempting to explain away the facts but those facts cannot be changed! The above list of when records occurred is actual and real climate data you cannot somehow recast or redo the above data because it fails to fit a narrative.