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MC convection is mostly shut down barring the typical passing ER or MJO pulse. Can also see the seasonal collapse southward of Eastern Pacific convection towards the equator as we get closer to November.

CFS has another strong WWB teed up for early november, although not as strong as this one.

I win! 28 degrees down in Cannan valley this morning. House we rented was on a hill and stayed above freezing, while the valley had pockets of freezing fog and frost. Will find some more pictures from my trip to share later.

It as cold and windy as advertised.

NMME Update DEC JAN FEB MARCH

Oh, I don't really think that will occur but was just saying its a possibility. I lean toward a better than average winter compared to some of the other Super El Nino's.

CON’s 2nd coldest temp on record was in Jan 1878. 50” of snow on the season which is BN but not a ratter in the period of record. But that was in the middle of a stretch of very snowy winters.

I've mentioned it before. The Cfs2 has literally had it for almost 2 months as the strongest WWB. Beyond it, the WWB are weaker thru the end of December.

Not surprising at this range, but the ensembles are much less enthusiastic with the depth of that trough.

Not sure they can win without him given how the defense looks so far.

Euroai is not alone the GEM has been onboard for a while now.

The comparison was to a low tracking in directly from the east over NYC like last week which would be further north than December 1992 that came into the Delmarva.

Sure, which is why I understand there wouldn't be 2' in the hills of NW RI if that storm had occurred during the winter, but plows would have been out in that region as sure as Adam is recycling posts about the record El Nino in some foreign language on X as we speak.

Yea, I'm like 30mi NNW of Boston....right on the NH border.

@CAPE https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/50116449/sources-ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-dealing-ankle-sprain

I was on Long Island for the 1992 Nor’easter. The biggest impact was the record coastal flooding up to that time and hurricane force easterly gusts. We got 3-5” of rain followed by some light snows when the low departed. That event was further south near the Delmarva than the low which tracked right into NYC in September from the east. Data for December 9, 1992 through December 13, 1992 Total precipitation Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 4.74 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 4.68 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 4.40 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 3.69 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.66 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 3.60 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.59 NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 3.57 NY MINEOLA COOP 3.54 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 3.52 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3.45 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 3.40 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 3.30 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3.25 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 3.22 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 3.19

The Euro AI and AI ENS, for better or worse, seem to be deadly in the D5-D8 range lately. I would mark this D11-D13 potential pattern reshuffle as an initial benchmark for whether patterns get can kicked or come in as advertised.

really?..wow are you inland of Boston?..NYC metro was shutout that winter

06z euro brings significant rain to the region (more to come) starting sunday afternoon into Monday -- from that tropical disturbance in the gulf. Euro AI is similar. GFS and CMC are less organized.

You what's funny and sad at the same time? I had 46.3" that winter...since 2017-2018 I have had TWO seasons, including last year, that were better than that. Forgive me taking it and this is how things evolve.

Harrisburg in December 92 had 6 inches..strong winds off the warm Atlantic in mid December didn't help the coast. Actually it did change to snow at the end and Long Island which got an inch