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Understood, totally agree.

Wife and I were joking that our dog got a new house on our land way before us lol. So why not... auto water and maybe a pinball machine and mini fridge.

I meant for this to be in the banter thread, but the point is that one has to use established definitions consistently for clear communication. Otherwise, confusion can erode preparedness and public safety.

Yeah we're easily in the lowest multiyear snow drought. The scary thing is I think the pattern is set. NYC will likely have a mean around 15" for good now.

We kicked around the chicken/egg debate quite a bit that year. Looking back at historical data it looks (to me) that the initial warm pool was the direct result of a persistent anomalous pattern causing the PDO to spike and then some sort of feedback. SSTA plots through the fall of 2013 don't look like a harbinger to me. The NE pac was loaded with BN temps in early October but then flipped over the next month into Nov. But the PDO was spiking during that time which makes sense. Persistent troughing near Japan would naturally have a downstream ridge. Then in Dec the -epo kinda shoved the warm pool further east into the GOA region. When I look at this stuff from a 10k' view, the +PDO was the catalyst for the SSTA configuration leading to the "warm blob". The blob got bullied and enhanced by a anomalous -epo pattern that kept reloading. We've discussed this before but worthing pointing out again.... the NE pac has a cold current and is never "warm". So 5 degrees above normal is still pretty cool. Hard to say how much influence that area of the Pacific can have on the upper levels of the atmosphere. Imho, the upper levels drive the bus and not the other way around in this specific region. But having the type of ssta configuration we has in 2013-14 was most definitely an important clue or guage of what was going on in the atmosphere. If this winter isn't going to be a dud, the crazy -PDO has to implode at some point leading into met winter. You've pointed this out already but if the PDO is roasting when we're eating turkey and watching NFL games... I won't be very optimistic

Well compared to naked swirl aka Gabrielle, maybe he has a point, haha I don't get how Gabrielle exists at the moment.

Yeah the winter pattern is set. The warm blob's gonna go away, the western pac will boil. We'll get a horrible zonal pac jet that floods the east with warm mild air, and the rockies and west will get freezing cold and snowstorms every day. 22-23 / 23-24 repeat, but possibly worse.

Well said. Cold-core low. That alone should dispel any argument.

Lol yeah the pattern in recent years has been the total opposite in fact. Cold out west, blowtorch in the east.

Perhaps because his tropical forecast is in bad shape due to a quiet hurricane season so far, Joe Bastardi is now insisting that meteorologists embrace his private fiction of what constitutes a tropical cyclone. As noted previously, the system had fronts. It was a nor'easter. It was not a tropical cyclone. It should not have been classified as a tropical cyclone any more than a winter nor'easter should be classified as a tropical storm or hurricane.

Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it. Of course @snowman19would have a blast!

I think the opposite is true for La Nina....which is what the RONI reflects. The surrounding atmosphere is more of an impediment for the expression of warm ENSO.

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system: What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle Then Joe compares satellite images of the two: Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point: What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

Heck....just tap into the well and give him a refillable water trough :-)

Weather-related shock therapy?

Not the case for New England. You tend to speak as though your climo applies to everyone.

Just saw an all-brown wooly bear caterpillar. Torch winter inbound?

I have my station reporting on the PWS site. Here is a map of all the stations on there. Not sure if there was one in the area you were referencing. I am to the South of 340 west of 270. I got 2.89”. 3.28” for the event. https://www.pwsweather.com/station/map/pws/kmdfrede232?ob=temps

that's probably going to be a pretty good radiational cooling/frost result Saturday night.. probably all the way down here in interior SNE, too

The overall dry September is consistent with the exceptionally dry end to August that had occurred. Indeed, the monthly CFSv2 initially called for a wet September before finally reverting to a dry September. Despite early rainfall during the month, highlighted by an unusually wet week following such a dry end to August, monthly rainfall is now below normal in New York City. Central Park: September 1-18: 2.30" 1991-2020 Average: 2.52" The guidance shows little or no rainfall for at least the next seven days. Statistically, the odds would somewhat favor a rebound in rainfall during October. Since 2000, 64% of drier than normal Septembers were followed by somewhat wetter to wetter than normal Octobers. However, with quasi-resonant amplification driven by changes in the Arctic producing "stuck patterns" that lead to longer-duration patterns, a dry October is possible. Indeed, during the last 10 years, dry Septembers were somewhat more likely (56%) to be followed by a drier than normal October. The most recent such case was October 2024. At present, the CFSv2 is showing drier than normal conditions in the Northeast. The ECMWF weeklies also begin October with near normal to possibly drier than normal conditions. October 2005 saw greatly elevated rainfall due to tropical moisture. Moisture from Subtropical Depression 22 dumped 4.49" of rain during October 7-8. Another system moving along a stalled frontal boundary brought 8.64" of rain during October 11-14. Nassau and Suffolk County saw the heaviest amounts with Lynbrook picking up 14.82", Riverhead receiving 14.26", and Wading River seeing 14.52". Moisture from Extratropical Wilma enhanced rainfall from a developing system along a frontal boundary that saw 2.36" rain fall during October 24-26. The emerging 500 mb pattern could provide insight as one draws closer to October. Very dry Octobers (<1.00" monthly rainfall) 1990-2024: Very wet Octobers (7.00" or more) 1990-2024: The September 18, 2025 0z EPS at 240 hours and 360 hours leans toward a dry start: 240 Hours: 360 Hours:

Ended up with 0.88" yesterday.

Feast or famine. Thank goodness we had the rain we did last week.