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Barn update. Should be done by summer's end. I recommend checking for paper wasp nests before sticking your hands up underneath trim, especially when you are at the very end of a 32' extension ladder. Only the second time I've ever been stung, and I can confirm that it still hurts like a m'fer.

WE blew some off last night at my friends but there was no debris in anyone's yard other than his which we cleaned up. Treehouse put on quite a display of fireworks last night. Every time we thought it was the finale they kept on going.

You're a mensch to take care of your dog after all that.

House across from my next door neighbor. There wasn’t a lot, but I’m sure the radius around him from there to here is a mess. When my next door neighbor on the other side set them off in 2020 I picked up about 100pcs of various debris over 3hrs on my property on the lawn and woods.

Great Lakes cutters, I-95 to I84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks have been dominant since the 2018-2019 winter. This is what we have had with the much stronger Pacific Jet. With the Great Lakes Cutter track the fast Pacific flow carves out a trough out West and pumps the Southeast Ridge with an I-95 rainstorm. The hugger track has wave spacing issues due to too many short waves in the fast Pacific flow. So we get the brief light to sometimes moderate snows changing to rain. Then there is the suppressed Southern Stream low due to the fast Pacific flow having a kicker trough coming into the West Coast. This doesn’t allow the Gulf low like the one last winter which gave record snows to the Gulf Coast to turn the corner and come up the coast. Then sometimes the lows come far enough north for DC to get snows but not areas further north. So the fast Pacific flow effectively turns off the benchmark snowstorm track. I hope we can see at least a small relaxation of this pattern in the coming years even if we still stay warm. Would take a warm and snowy La Niña winter like 16-17 and a weaker Pacific Jet in a second if I could get it. Wouldn’t mind a 60° day before of after some of the blizzards that season. Now we just get the 60° days without the great snows.

Another black locust?

Who's fireworks debris ended up in your yard?

That's what I'm worried about..models and mets have been all over the map this year...days that are forecasted less seem to ovrrperform and vice versa

models don't have all that much-maybe .50 to 1.00. It will come down to how it interacts with an incoming cold front. But seems like in and out-not sure where this days and days of rain is coming from. -

So what's the deal with Chantals waste..is this a serious threat for heavy rain..surprised this board is crickets

Is the air quality alerts because of all the fire works smoke?

since when are temps taken at airports like newark and laguardia really accurate compared to central park..

Down near Baltimore and DC it was a snowy January. I had snow on the ground pretty much the whole month. They had a 8-10" storm further south than I think another 6" storm.. it snowed like 15 days through the end of January.. not a horrible Winter. I understand further north it was drier, but sometimes early in the Winter the STJ is further south.

Literally every single chance we had at a KU event last winter from the end of November right through the end of March from PHL to NYC to BOS imploded. It found every way possible and then some to avoid a major snowstorm in that corridor. It was surreal

This summer reminding me of 2018. Consistently above average temps but no extraordinary heat, no good cold fronts, lake shadow, little rain.

Yup. Debris in my front yard from the shit. Fireworks should be banned. If you want to see them go to the town shows. It’s ridiculous.

Oh sorry no I mean it moved so slow that was the rate. Lake Travis went up 10’ in 2 hours this am.

Last 10 yrs: Subtropical Pac: Subtropical ATL: ATL MDR:

How did it snow 10" in Florida? How did Valentine, Nebraska hit -31F when it was almost March? I was on this board saying that the pattern wasn't good for snow last February and that it wasn't going to snow.. I would dig it up, but there were like 10-15 posts about this in the Mid Atlantic forum. The NAO was south-based positive and there was High pressure in the North Pacific over the North Pacific High position. Plus it takes some time to detox the heavy -PNA/+AO that was the time before. Not a big anomaly. The big anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but teleconnection patterns aren't 100%, and sometimes other things dominate. Doesn't mean it's always going to be like that. I think we are going back to -NAO cold in the Winter time as Jan 2024 and Jan 2025 had this. The coastal SLP correlation is 5-6x greater in -NAO/+PNA than +NAO/-PNA. I should dig up those old posts... was saying it wasn't a great H5 pattern for snow that 5-7 day models were showing. We didn't have things at our latitude that were favoring cold and snow like a 50/50 low and NE N. Pacific low pressure. bluewave by your posts I would surmise that you are saying NYC is going to average 15"/snow/yr from here on out. No matter, regardless. I don't think that's going to happen... we might have a tough few years with the flux of some things still being unfavorable, but weather patterns wax and wane.. eventually we will enter a better pattern, and the global warming isn't that advanced yet.

peaked boomped to 50mph

I'm working on an extensive post regarding the issue

Absolutely. Just compare the old photos of the site from the recent ones. Most of those 100° readings from the 1930s into the early 1990s would have only been mid to upper 90s if the they had the same tree cover back then. The strongest wind gust is still 78 mph set back in December of 1974 when the trees were much lower. So there could have been higher gusts in the interim but the tress could be interfering like with the temperatures.

I would but I’d be lying

Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

As I have pointed out, you are putting way too much stock in what the teleconnections have been to the north of the subtropics. No combination of WPO, EPO, PNA, AO, or NAO is going to produce a cold and snowy outcome along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast provided that the winter subtropical ridge remains so robust. We need a weaker Southeast Ridge/ Western Atlantic Ridge along with a much slower Pacific Jet. This is why even the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, and record -AO -NAO block last February still produced a cutter with record snows in Toronto and Montreal with a rainstorm along the coast. The -5 sigma Greenland block linked up with the Southeast Ridge when in the past there would have been a deep trough underneath and a benchmark I-95 blizzard. The issue is the fast Pacific flow and robust subtropical ridges from Japan to Western Europe. So these ridges to the south joining with the ridges associated with the -WPO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and -NAO don’t leave any room for cold trough development under the ridges.