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Southern edge of NYC subforum verified 5+. See attached. SVR was reserved for southern edge of our subforum - NJ. Two day totals attached as of 730AM July 2. (You can unpin whenever you want).

Someone not heeding the advice below may have been optimistic about the 2023-2024 El Nino due to the belief that the relatively paltry MEI and RONI values were more favorable for cold and snow opportunities in the east. I know that I was. This is a perfect example of why the pose below is so crucial. One other peice of advice would be to not be afraid to admit mistakes and never stop learning.

24 hour total as of 7am was 2.69" and it's still raining.

This is why its important to be multidimensional and as all exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".

ok this dewey shit can go away now. 72/70 barely got a rain shower last night, and got <0.1" yesterday morning.

No relief up north. Was about 70 for the low.

Chris articulated it best when he said that the west warm pool was competing with, and masking the El Nino to an extent....this is why the RONI and especially the MEI were relatively low.

That was the year thousands of people died in the MW, especially near Chicago.

This matches my memory of 1993 being the last year when we had good data coming out of Central Park. I noticed that wind speeds, snowfall and temperature data were lower quality after that. Do you think using ASOS itself also has something to do with the poor data or is it purely a siting issue? I also see lower quality wind reports and precip type reports coming out of there.

Yea, I'm optimistic about perhaps a-NAO month and a good period or two, but not the DM period in the mean.

Got 1.58" yesterday in New Holland. Dumped right as I left work, fortunately I had my maintenance guy give me a lift in the golf cart out to my car

But average temperatures <> extreme temperatures I would much rather have higher highs than have average temperatures increase. The differences between our highs and lows seems to be becoming less.

0.01” overnight. For the event .50”. I will take it after not having any measurable rain fall since June 28th.

Dover radar effed up again. I was looking at it this morning when it was pouring here and it had nothing over me- it was depicting reflectivity from sometime earlier. 062 NOUS61 KAKQ 020837 FTMDOX Message Date: Jul 02 2025 08:37:56 KDOX RADAR HAS BEEN PLACED IN STANDBY MODE DUE TO DEGRADED VELOCITY DATA.

It had to do with the radar range across the country with the new radars which were installed back then. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Tour_Introduction#:~:text=In 1993%2C the National Weather,as 13 River Forecast Centers. In 1993, the National Weather Service moved from its old office in New York City to this modernized facility in Upton. Placement of the office was governed, in part, by the range of the radar, about 250 miles. Nationally, there are 122 forecast offices like this one, as well as 13 River Forecast Centers. The NWS also operates 21 aviation support Center Weather Service Units and various National and Regional Support Centers. Click here to see all the offices and centers that make up the National Weather Service.

Well, instead of closing it, why didn't they actually move the equipment downtown, where people actually live and work? The 160 years of data, I don't see that as important as the climate has changed so much that what happened during the 1800s and early 1900s is now completely irrelevant.

Why did they leave to go to Upton and more to the point why were they allowed to leave? I consider parks no better than zoos, they are an artificial *natural* entity created inside a concrete jungle. If one wants to see nature one should visit a forest. I don't see the conservation movement as being helpful when it comes to parks at all, in the same way I don't see the confinement of animals in zoos as being natural either.

I agree with you. I actually did a study a few years back, finding that there was fluctuation year-to-year around patterns. I used this in 2022 to predict some things in advance actually. It's fluctuation around a base pattern, and last late Nov-Feb was "anomaly" of +PNA, so I think we have higher chances of fluxing back to -PNA over the same time next Winter, without major drivers like ENSO.. it's purely theoretical, but the method has been relevant for the past few years, for whatever reason. If we go 4,4,4,4 -2 one year, it's likely to go 4,4,4,4 8 over the same time in the following year.

Columbia 1.74” Tuesday pm thru 6 am Wed.

There has been a long and storied relationship between the NWS and Central Park observing site at Belvedere Castle. The quality control was light years ahead of what has happened since the NWS left 30 Rock in 1993. Prior to the NWS leaving for Upton, there were meteorologists that would regularly go over to Central Park from the office to Central Park for all the snowfall measurements. So the accuracy of the snowfall measurements was top notch. We even had meteorologists that used to post here that would run back and forth between the Rockefeller Center office and Central Park to do the measurements by hand. As soon as they left on 1993 and the new ASOS was installed in 1995, the quality temperature and snowfall measurements rapidly declined. The trees began to grow over the site in the 1990s putting the ASOS in the shade especially when the trees were fully leafed out. There were several news articles written with outside meteorologists criticizing what began to happen around 2003 when it became very obvious. I think the NWS fought to keep the Central Park site open as there may have been some talk of closing it. But the parks department was very sensitive to the idea of cutting any of the trees back in Central Park. So in the last 20 years the tree growth has accelerated even more from when the original articles were written. The conservation movement in Central Park has grown very strong. This is generally a good thing. But when your weather observing equipment in under a growing tree canopy, it will take 3° to sometimes 5° off the high temperatures on sunny and warm summer days relative to a grassy clearing in the park like the Great Lawn.

West-Pacific index looks like this in the Wintertime It's the reason why the SE ridge has extended north to often link up with Greenland ridging, that and, NAO sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic has often been positive, which enforces a mid-latitude ridge from the US to Europe. Taking out all the indexes, which are fluctuation patterns, and what they have produced in the weight of one direction over another, the global warming is actually only about +3F in the Winter for the last 50 years. (Maybe it's more as a year-to-year multiplier recently as the trend is more exponential in recent years).

It’s amazing. Stress free and happy.

73/72 thought less humid today? Anyways swamp ass/clouds

0.47" last evening plus overnight. Have had measurable rain 7 of past 8 days. Low of 70 today

No worries, almost every year our average temperatures increase. We need some good northern hemisphere volcanic action (just not around here)...