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Wish we had a bit more downstream ridging but let's see if it can dig more and phase a bit earlier. It becomes a nuke south of Nova Scotia

Monday morning commute disaster on the gfs. Nice little event Monday morning. How we pray

Euro doesn't look bad IMO.

06z euro was close. Hopefully it ticks a bit better at 12z and then I’ll be more intrigued. We’re kind of due for a solid advisory clipper.

Even on the lesser guidance...the signal for a 70-80 knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough as the trough is getting ready to swing across New England...pretty good signal for at least some degree of amplification.

Hopefully other models start showing besides the NAM and GFS

Ambient ws5000

The 12z GFS has shifted a little south and sharper aloft for the Sun-Mon clipper. Looks pretty nice for CNY and NE. Even gets some snow into or close to the City. The shortwave track is pretty far north but the 12z GFS is closest yet to something interesting in that time period. The GFS is not entirely on its own either.

Well unless the Euro bumps norther and juicer, my bar is set at car-topper. Eh. Who we kidding. I’ll probably be at a bar too.

CMC also gets an inch up to DC. The timing has also moved forward rush hour could be messy.

I don't have a lot of friends today except for my bestie... 12z gfs

Prob Dec 17, 2020 (cape got screwed but the rest of SNE basically got 10”+)…Jan ‘22 wasn’t that good out west and Feb 2021 really screwed the coast.

As discussed the other day, these are the ones to watch for. When you have fast flow with an abundance of shortwaves...too many people get all caught up looking for D10 HECSs and miss these potential systems.

High end advisory on the GFS

The 15z axis is slightly north but bullseyes the Nashville area.

4 days out public would be pist they didn't know sooner

One of the reasons why it's so easy to be pessimistic is because of Jan-Feb 2025 and Dec 2022. Those patterns, observed from a far, would have been a gangbusters wintry weather period in the 2010s. But it just didn't materialize. In fact in December 2022, hardly any of us saw even 1 flake of snow. We've seen numerous good patterns (not just out in model fantasy land, but actually experiencing the good patterns) since winter 2019 that just failed to materialize winter weather events. Sure, those patterns produced cold, and sometimes, serious cold. But almost nothing came of those time periods. If that didn't happen, I think we would all feel more comfortable about this month.

When was the last, truly great, region wide KU?

The 14z HRRR was very similar to the RAP.

Give this and the 6z euro maybe we watch.

Finely chilly too aside from ern Plymouth county to cape but eventually some snow there too.

I don't think the GFS should be totally tossed. Its idea of amplifying that northern stream has validity. Whether there is some phasing is another story but I'd watch this

I think its 5 in NYC

Snow squall warnings currently posted in parts of CNY and NPA. The squalls probably won't hold together as the front slides southward through our area, but there's a small chance.