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12z coming in hot

Even in bad winters occasionally you can line something up in New England. But you are barking up the wrong tree here, I’m not optimistic at all about this upcoming winter and am fully expecting a ratter.

Finally! 60s and 40s in our forecast!

Euro ?

Ravens have had Shough dead to rights about half a dozen times and he’s Lamar-ing his way out of the sack

Start a thread.

Almost no rain today so far. A brief period of drizzle or light rain early am, a brief moderate shower mid morning, otherwise just cloudy and cool.

I just checked other S Wey stations near you. Both had 1.5-1.75 the last event a few days ago

Wicked thunderstorm with frequent cloud to ground lightning in the Valley currently. My forecast has mid 40's for lows later this week. The pattern change is arriving right on que with the Fall Equinox!

Locked

12z Euro AI still a big hit

Kinda chilly, cool breeze. Barely 1/4" of rain.

And gefs

Not good. Gefs is also offshore.

Stein will find a way to ruin this.

No

feels like a mid october day outside cool temps gusty wind leaves blowing everywhere. first time i wore a hoodie since june it felt good..

Didn’t you have almost 2” the other day ?

12z runs kind of meh so far

Very close to beating the all-time record warmest SST in the Nino 3.4 region.

12z GFS Ai OTS

I mowed my dust bowl of a lawn thinking we’d get at least a little rain. We’ll see what happens later, but it looks like another Steiner. I also have a lot of leaf drop now. Trees are stressed.

Still a long way out to know for sure. The 12Z GEM and UKMET are OTS. The GFS made a shift to the right from 6z. So we’ll have to see what the Euro and AIFS does today. These very strong blocking patterns are tricky for the models to handle. Since there is a fine line between capturing a system and suppressing it offshore.

Still not sold on the PDO having any meaningful influence this cool season. But time will tell.