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VHT bursting in the northern eyewall.

That's really interesting! I tapped it...... Hope you guys get good soaking rains.

Chivrico is a town that might get a direct hit. It's west of Santiago on coastal route 20. It's located at -76.4 W and that looks about where the eye will come ashore. Santiago should be just far enough east to stay out of the eyewall. Fortunately, the location around Chivrico is not as prone to surge. Melissa will be mostly a wind event and hopefully it's gaining enough forward speed to mitigate flash flooding from torrential rain.

Worried about Santiago de Cuba. Second largest city in the country.

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today.

Impressive.

Agreed, the ongoing contraction of the core as the vortices get back in concert with each other tells me we should see additional pressure falls through landfall. Insanely anomalous to get a Cat-4 strike in this area of Cuba that is so well guarded by mountainous islands. Sandy is obviously the gold standard when it comes to poleward tracking hurricane intensification over the Eastern Cayman Trench (kind of shocked there isn't a more descriptive name that's easy to find for this body of water), but Melissa is putting on an impressive performance.

I hate the cold, dark mornings so yes it's fine. Can't imagine it still being dark at 8-830.

November ! DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.0

Really impressed by how well Melissa's mid level vortex held together and how fast the eyewall is reorganizing. It's not got a lot of time before landfall in Cuba, but it has incredible upper level support and obviously high SSTs to reintensify some in short order. At least maintain current intensity. Should be a Category 4 strike.

Given how light the wind was, even if it missed by a touch I would bet it doesn’t make much of a difference.

I am not sure the plane got dead center of the hurricane. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA_dropsondes.png

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 Location: 19.3°N 76.6°W Moving: NE at 9 mph Min pressure: 950 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

probably only a high 4, but she’s relentless. Anything is possible.

Not impossible given the dropsonde just before landfall, but there’s going to be an extensive review of all the data and observations to determine the final intensity of this one. This may very well be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.

If fhose really intense pink colored convection can wrap completely wrap around the center, will we see it reach cat 5 status again before it hits Cuba? Or will it only make it to Cat 3-4?

Yes, they have clearance.

I think in the past recon was given the go fly over their airspace or maybe I’m wrong?

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?

To quote monte python, hitting Jamaica “tis but a flesh wound” to Melissa

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass