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Agree that the ~1" or so seen on most models for Saturday is likely white rain, at least for 95 and the coast, especially with light snow falling during the day (sun angle ain't zero), with maybe some accumulation on colder surfaces if we're lucky. And Sunday is all over the place, although the AIFS, in particular has been pretty consistent for many runs and it has the best model verification scores recently, albeit for 500 mbar predictions and not snow, per se - although it never bit much on today's "snow" a few to several days ago.

The one big red flag is the EPS has been pretty steadyfast for the past 3-4 runs of being mostly a miss. Need to see that change at 12z

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

The aggregate trend over the past 24 hours is still really solid. Needs more work, but fast forward from 6z yesterday I’m sure most would take where we are currently

I hate to be the one that says it. But it needs to be said. Winter has shown its cards. It got off to a great start with above average snowfall in December and well below average temperatures. But since then, we have been warm for nearly the entire month of January. No snow threats have worked out for us. While it will become cold starting this weekend, this weekend snow threat will not work out and the Euro was right once again. Time to wrap it up, folks.

Nothing he said changed after 3:00am. I’m as annoyed the GFS is trying to fold as anyone, but these are still reasons to consider a general NW trend is possible. Let’s see what 12z does. Still got 3/4 days.

I don't travel all that much-but will be far far away Sunday.That should be good karma for a nice snow-that I will miss

I’m going to stick my flag in the sand that cams will lead the way on this one. All of the belly aching on globals will soon be done. In a waa setup, you’re never going to catch the nuances that the short range models will. I expect an expansive precip shield at go time.

Best chance is late Jan into Feb. If nothing works out then honestly I don't know what it'll take to get a significant coastal storm.

If people got sucked into phantom gfs solutions twice in 5 days, that’s on them. This never had support to be anything other than a graze

Let’s party

Gun to head, this trends slightly better at 12z giving EMA low end advisory. Speaking of GFS/Euro suite

That will update later this morning.

my 62 years of experience, living in the upstate....these clipper storms do not grab the energy that the models predict. It is very rare to happen. That is why the models are all over the place. Unfortunately, I don't see anyone getting snow outside the mountains.

As dry as it has been here, the mountain west is in worse shape. They don't break out this year or early next, there is gonna be some SERIOUS issues with power generation and water allocation on the Colorado.

Thread started, someone had to do it

It is time. Lot of speed bumps and fail modes for this one, but there is a path to some level of victory for most on the forum. Good luck everyone, next 3 days will be fun tracking

Hang in there...we aren't going to want for opportunity.

I'm not totally punting this threat until 00z tonight. We've seen things trend way north/west when we needed them not to around this range many times over the years. There isn't a big arctic high crushing the flow south like our usual smoking cirrus NC get crushed events, so maybe we can actually get lucky.

Euro is still 1-3" here. It had nada 12z yesterday. Still some room for this to inch a bit closer, given the AI guidance. I think some were subsconsciously locking in the big GFS runs.

Just checked the drought monitor…central and western Md down to nc are now in a severe drought with more dought conditions all throughout the south. And checking the latest model runs, there isn’t gonna be much relief in the short-term.

Back to winter. At 7 am it was 20.3/7.7 with a WNW 17 gusting to 28 mph wind. A few flurries in last hour, now 20.1/7.5 at 8 am with NW 16 gusting 30 mph wind.

Nope

Phase 6 isnt working. Hopefully things pick up when it goes into 7 and 8.