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And that’s real and spectacular. It radiates and stays cold 24/7. Ding ding ding !

This is quite an active look for Nov of a strong El Nino.

-70F in Yakutsk is 99.99% fake. Just watch out for that 0.01%

That pic actually look great and fairly clear. We have had a slight wind today which has cleared some of the smog (from camp fires, cars, etc...under this "oppressive" high pressure.) This Am it was like a Canada Wildfire day but better now.

Even weaker

If it’s fake to begin with, but then advects into your neighborhood, does it become real? Philosophers want to know.

oh yeah I agree with that. Deep cyclonic flow over there vs. solar irradiance in Florida. for the FL portion to contribute more to you need a deep arctic outbreak down there imo.

Warmth flooding all of North America? Everything . It’s torched PAC flow. Hopefully it’s wrong

What's wrong with that?

https://x.com/weatherunited1/status/2115863484160413760?a=-cnIRn2C6ep1gjp4xlE&s=46

2018? Near normal 2014? Above normal

"needs" to be "corrected" with estimated homogenization adjustments

The state of Delaware study findings are now up and available at https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-delaware/

It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense. In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

Our string of very stormy near/on Halloweens is broken. The amount of extreme storms on this date is crazy. From snowtober to Sandy to The Perfect Storm to the 2017 epic 975 bomb.

A new phenomenon may be beginning known as 'El namis'

Kidding aside, we’re basically just arguing between low thickness cold and relatively higher thickness cold. You have rad pits in the northern Rockies that pull frequent subfreezing mins in July only to hit 80s in the afternoon. The cold is real, but it’s not really a sign of the intensity of the airmass. Ironically most of our cold airmasses originate from radiational cooling and deep highs in the arctic.

that tweet about sea levels in peru is nuts

I decided to take the day off and hike up Sugar Loaf Mountain. What's with the hazyness today? Low lever moisture? Wildfire smoke? Chem trails? It really limited the view and dulled the fall color. It was still a beautiful hike.

Just keeping it real ?

The recent dry pattern was kickstarted by the 2023-2024 el nino. October 2024 had zero rainfall here so maybe we are now entering another dry pattern, Ray. This October actually reminds me of it. Very not el nino like. I know you mentioned the lack of MC forcing but for now I'm going with 1965-66, 1972-73, 2001-02 and 2023-2024 as analogs. Got to put a non nino analog in there too and I refuse to use 1997-1998 as an analog it's too easy and seems intellectually lazy to me. How can el ninos be grouped by MC forcing Ray? I haven't seen this mentioned before this year. Last winter 1993-94 was thrown around as an analog. And if next winter is a la nina some will throw around 1995-96 as an analog. You'd change your mind if it was followed in sequence with the winter of 1995-96. Dry and sunny sounds much better. Give me 1965-66 1972-73 2001-02 or 2023-2024 instead. Is the Atacama Desert, the driest place on the planet, finally going to get some rain? I've wanted to visit it when all those red desert flowers bloom!

This is a fake post