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One thing is for sure….someone is going to be dead wrong about the stratosphere/SPV evolution for late winter (February/March). There is one camp that says it’s going to strengthen significantly and couple with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO and another camp that thinks we see a major SSWE, with a major SPV weaking/split and -AO/-NAO blocking. Should be an interesting 2 months coming up…..

The upshot. The takeaway. The deal.

Man this is sooo close to being a HECS for us !!

Just got here yesterday. Heard this was the best forum for snow

I’m sorry to hear your mom isn’t doing well. You all will be in my thoughts and prayers. I’m hoping for a good snow sometime soon. I’d love to see something like the blizzard of 93 again!! .

The good thing about the 12z GFS is now we have a model showing the high potential this system has. A 985 low forms just off the outer banks and gives them a foot of snow. It's still 7 days out... but I am starting to like the trends.

192 has a broad trof approaching, we need that baddie to sharpen up tho. Let's see...

Well, yeah, it should be. So, just like most of December.

You new here? It’s kinda what we do best.

Bingo. I’m anxious to see the 12z euro. 6z looked like it was going to be an epic run.

nothing worse than an east coast pattern when you're stuck with lake effect vaporware

15th/16th—That GFS run is very -NAO ish I don’t buy this evolution. Looks like a step further away from reality. The NAO forecast had another stepwise increase well into positive territory before our players are on the field..

It’s always good to be in the bullseye a week away. Works out everytime.

If both of these things end up failing, I think the worst sting is that....we'll have all the cold air we'd need for snow. And wasted.

That first s/w tugs the baroclinic zone a bit east so the follow up one ends up east as well, But this is real close to a bomb up here as long as its not LBSW before hand.

I hope the new year can bring you happiness.

The southern stream shortwave is trending stronger and stronger with the first one. 18z euro really started to pickup in that at the end of its run yesterday.

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track. .

I think we will like the final outcome, we may score

997 low off the coast of Wilmington/Myrtle Beach on the GFS,snow on the westward side at hour 150-156

Indeed, the AAM values on your chart of recent history appear to be ~1/2 a SD higher than the CFS initializations often though sometimes they’ve been closer). For example, check out the 11/28 CFS initialization of +1, which was at its peak: Your chart says 11/28 was ~+1.4: Also, CFS initialized 12/19 at ~-1.25 vs your chart then at ~-0.7: But OTOH: CFS initialized 1/3 near 0 vs your chart then at the same: I don’t know anything about the “officialness”/accuracy of your chart. But I can say based on these comparisons that the CFS on average appears to often though not always initialize ~0.5 SDs lower than your chart’s “actuals”.

Yup back that NW like 500 miles and kaboom

Check out the thermals on the gfs. Idk if I’ve ever seen dynamic cooling that epic.

if this low ticks west 200 miles then that's a 980 tucked low off of the delmarva