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If we can get that trough to back up west a lil

‘71-72? November ‘71 was good but Dec ‘71 was kind of a dud for snow.

I like that pre Christmas window more than trying to thread the needle on Christmas. I’m not as confident in that signal. I mean in all seriousness, last year we had epic patterns showing up and that was awful. We’ve had bad patterns be awful. We’ve had middling patterns be awful. It’s a rough decade. Yes, there have been great storms, but on balance nothing has worked with the PAC being uncooperative. I lean more toward you here. I don’t think it’s permanent, but perhaps one of these longer range oscillations that are really a blip on the global time scale but suck for us. 100% We have to be at climo by Dec 31.

Yeah that’s a split flow, we’ll see if it has legs as we get closer. .

Hmm yeah there are similarities. Euro AI has that giant tropospheric PV in Canada provide just enough confluence without squashing it. GFS squashes it. High latitudes on euro AI otherwise look like trash at that time frame lol. Definitely a unicorn setup but not much else happening…

BIG changes underway. That snow and ice doesn't stand a chance.

No, the end of December. This is for my area....tri state as done okay.

When you say soon, you meaning by the end of January? I mean, things really shouldn't get going climatologically as far as snow in our region, especially Southern New England and the Tri-State area ( although south of us have done very well and are above average I would say for the month of December and are above average I would say for the month of December). Even though we're not getting a parade of snow events here, I wouldn't call it horrible.

Is 6-9" a big snow? The upper end of that is getting there. Maybe we need a woman's perspective on this??

Man, I get the pessimism from most. I to am disappointed in how things could pan out. For now, I'm looking forward to having some real time Winter as we are taking a trip to Quebec ( right between Quebec City and Montreal ) in Shawinigan QC arriving there the day after Christmas and staying until early the next week. It's looking Snowy there, so I'm sure I will get my fix while we are there. Hopefully when I get back, things will look better going forward.

Excerpt from my latest blog: While the forecast for the balance of 2025 would appear rather unchallenging, things are seldom as they appear in weather. In this particular instance, the caveat is an MJO wave that is expected to remain rather meager and variable after having largely dissipated over the course of the past week following its brief flirtation with phase 8 near the outset of the month. Note the tendency for the MJO to stagnate and become incoherent enough in phase 8 as to actually be reflected as having reemerged into the MC phases as byproduct of the continued warmth in the western Pacific that was referenced last fall. The consistent struggle for the MJO to remain a coherent wave in the western Pacific has been a theme over the course of the past decade that any seasoned forecaster should not have neglected to consider. The disjointed signal that results from the continuation of the battle for proxy between the MC and western Pacific will allow for an occasional element of western Pacific expression to assert itself into the pattern as a byproduct of the areas of dual forcing. This will be especially prevalent during the final week of the month, which is when some potentially colder intrusions may periodically infiltrate the northeastern quarter of the country

Like you said, grasping a little here but the Euro and the GFS have the same ULL entering Cali and trying to make its way across under the ridge. I actually thought the 6z GFS was going to do something with it but the ridge just gets bullied east and squashes it.

I have these thoughts too. I've been creating composites of SSTs focusing on the Pacific for EL Nino/La Nina dating back to 1900 with a focus on the WPWP. There's lots of studies out there discussing how it has expanded over the last 2-3 decades along with the extension of the WHWP. But even with the Nina look...those 29-30C temps are extending well east, just past the dateline. Definitely sufficient to sustain strong convection around the dateline which I believe is something that enhances ridging across the NPAC?

You can analyze the pattern all you want.....and debate, but what can't be argued is that it needs to snow, and snow significantly soon or else a good season quickly becomes exceedingly unlikely.

Certainly a big change. International Falls, commonly known as the Icebox of the Nation, soared to an astounding 50F yesterday, obliterating a 112-year-old daily record by 7F. That was the latest 50F reading on record there. For those hoping the snowpack might blunt the coming warmup, that's not a positive development.

That ridge sounds tasty. Let's roast it.

Cool ENSO can't produce an awful December for snowfall and still ultimately thrive in terms of the seasonal total....which doesn't preclude a very good period(s), but again....it is what it is-

I'm not......buuuuut, you can't dispute strong climo evidence to the contrary if this month ends up as it looks like it may.

I got rid of my snowblower this past summer. I was sick and tired of having to reset the tires on the rims every fall and struggle with getting it to start. For the last several winters I think I used it once or twice, other than that it took up garage space and collected dust. Of course now we've had two snowfalls in the last few weeks that I could have used it already.

The big question for me is to what degree is this permanent, which is a pretty polarizing issue, but I have maintained a more moderate stance.

I think we all want snow, but some people like to cover their ears when discussion of the overall pattern is not favorable. we certainly don’t know about individual threats, but generally, we have an idea about the overall pattern structure. And those clues give us an idea of how difficult it will be to achieve winter weather. Reading some of the posts here and some long range “expert” articles, I’m pretty pessimistic on the rest of winter. I think it’s going to be very hostile on the whole, and if you aren’t a snow stake at 3k on stow mountain, I think there’s going to be a lot of outside looking in. This isn’t to say we couldn’t get an event during this period, but you have to do some actual calculating as opposed to dismissing bad outcomes because they are in the extended.

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days.

looking at overnighters, it def looks like the see saw continues, but thankfully enough cold "close" to suppress the f'in torch option. I'm calling it a wash, and win as long as its not days n days +5 -10 anomalies. We've been there done that a plenty. As per GEFS AO/NAO look to head solidly neg, and while PNA also is rather neg at same time, it would argue for a zonal flow with cold "closer". Not great, but not terrible either

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.