All Activity

Update weenie dictionary https://www.patreon.com/JaysWintryMix/posts/97501273?utm_campaign=postshare_creator

Recall that overnight in Feb 2016 (I think it was that year)? @CoastalWx was thoroughly impressed w/ the LTG. Probably the most CGs in SNE for a single tstm event in Feb on record! Then he could not believe the two spinners in wrn MA on 2/25/2017!

It eludes me why Emily from 2005 was not retired. Not b/c it was Cat 5 in July, but b/c it made two Cat 3 landfalls in Mexico. Usually, a Cat 3 or higher landfall anywhere us retired no problem. But retirement request I think are based on if the country(s) impact from officials there. Since Mexico was the only country direct impacted, they must have not requested it in the annual WMO meeting. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 3 landall in TX, but it was small and made landfall between the very sparsely populated area between CRP and BRO, so it was not retired.

These Ai models [emoji102]

A bit of caution here. The other two very strong El Ninos since 1950? 1983 was lowest ACE on record in the satellite era and only 4 NS. 1992 had only 7 NS and an ACE of 40. Yes, we had Andrew, but I am looking at entire seasons here, not individual storms. 1983 had Alicia Cat 3 that made a direct hit on HOU. 2023 going by the RONI index, was a moderate El Nino, not very strong. https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm This is only the 5th very strong El Nino since 1950, so small sample size precludes a statistically significant signal either way for what 2027 might hold using just very strong El Nino as an indicator.

I think TCs result in 10-15% of rainfall overall in the tropics. Some areas much more. like Cabo San Lucas MX. Most sig rainfall here comes from TCs or their remnants.

24-hr rain from last night (to 1200z) was 1.25" to 3.0" for Toledo. We had some more light showers. Now, SPC is considering a new severe thunderstorm watch for southern Michigan to NW Ohio late tonight

Is that considered a double-bounce?

K4MD - Baltimore/Pier 7 MD KBDQ - Morrilton AR KCHT - Chillicothe MO KK51 - Medicine Lodge KS KM46 - Colstrip MT PACE - Central AK PACI - Chalkyitsik AK METAR Site ID Change: K2V5 to KRYA - Wray CO

2023 was weird bc of weaker nino forcing due to warm global tropics

1972-73 should be included as well. That was a -PDO, and was pretty much snowless at PHL.

Summer heat over the West looks like it has been destroyed, as Sept has been cold so far over some of the warmest areas, with more cooler than average temps coming for a while. Especially with significant rains likely from the dying East Pacific hurricane running north. Our local pattern of "every day is 90-105" has finally broken in Sept, which is nice. More rain forecast will help if it verifies.

Might clean house...only up in the air in that scenario is Albernaz. Will depend on new GM unless Rubinstein wants him to stay, I suppose. What I have trouble believing is that Rubenstein does nothing. You can't publicly complain about being in last place and do nothing. And there is only one thing to do: fire Elias, clean house in the FO. He himself said that increasing payroll is not the end-all and there is more to successful ownership than that. I hope he takes what he learned from other top sports owners for his book, and applies to this organization.

Cold pool orographic showers led to rainbows as they moved through.

Long range 12z GFS was brutal for you all...

Yes, "the door swings both ways" as I always say. Sure, when you have high-end wx event that has big impacts, that is going to be front and center. However, there is flip side, when you get atypically inactive or quiet periods, or a pattern/cycles that suppresses extreme wx events. Heck, we've seen that over the decades for East Coast snowstorms, much to the dismay of snow weenies! I get it, out of sight, out of mind, and that does not sell, but that does not mean it is not important or should be ignored from scientific or meteorological POV. The reporting bias of wx from the MSM and social media is obvious. and that skews perception. What suppresses TC activity, or any stormy wx, is just as important as what favors it. There should be more study on this. TC are more tenuous as to existing than many think. They require very specific conditions to develop and maintain. and SSTs alone do not cut it (far too much emphasis on those IMHO). What matters most is in the atmosphere, not the ocean. Wind shear and TPW are paramount. You can have all the warm water in the world, but if the atmosphere does not cooperate, you get nothing or TCs that have trouble getting intense. This Atlantic season so far displays it more obvious than I think any other recently. High shear across the MDR?, no dice. And what manages to develop, struggles big time and does not last long. And look at Edouard. Over 31 C SSTs, and it still took its time developing b/c of a lot of dry air present and minor shear. Close to landfall, it got closer to the center of a 250 mb high pressure, and only *then* did it make its move, so to speak. The shear decreased to near zero, and less shear stopped the entrainment of dry air into the core. Edouard being so small, it makes a TC more vulnerable to even small environmental changes, and drier synoptic environment typically means TCs will be smaller overall. So you see how it is all tied together. You can't treat any wx parameter in a vacuum. The ocean and the atmosphere are coupled.

This you @Jonger?

Not gonna bother changing the snow blower's oil this fall.

The AMO is SO important. People really do forget how the Atlantic can vary for decades at a time! Doesn’t mean we can’t get a big event during a “lull” but of all the areas where you really need to care about the longer historical record, tropical is it. I’ll also just note, this is an extremely impressive season so far—it just happens to be on the other side of the activity spectrum. To have this little ACE, this deep into the general climatological peak in the Atlantic, it’s really something to behold.

I believe it might have been confirmed this afternoon.

Ginger in 1971 is one of the oddest TC tracks and second-long lasting TC in the Atlantic on record. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger The "Yankee" hurricane in 1935 started near Bermuda and ended up hitting MIA from the ENE! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane For the oddest track globally?, Typhoon Wayne in the NW Pacific in 1986 takes the cake here! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Wayne_(1986)

Nailed this one tonight:

Indiana, PA just surpassed us in yearly rain tallies. We are at 38.40. They are now 38.76. By year's end many places in the East and south will be several feet over us, while south central Texas will be getting wall to wall sunshine and highs in the 80s, even in December. We'll see a few sprinkles maybe some drizzle. We have been leading most places most of the year so far. Those days are OVER. It's not hard to understand. We are too far west for this Record El Nino. So we will be bone dry and warm. The Nino is so east-based it is setting records. The Plume is also way too far east for us. Places like Virginia, and the DMV areas appear to be right in the crosshairs. These communities have been getting smashed by repeated instances of heavy rain since at least early August. Look out once that soil gets saturated. Rain will keep right on. What else is new.