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With all the rain we’ve been getting, the humidity in this heat wave is gonna be stifling. Yesterday the high on my pws was 90, but the HI was 104!

Nothing is changing. We will continue to move clocks twice a year

This is one of the reasons it doesn't match up with the solstice most of the time: https://www.timeanddate.com/news/astronomy/earth-fast-rotation-2025 Earth Will Spin Unusually Quickly in July and August Since 2020, Earth has notched up unprecedentedly short days midway through the year. It will happen again in 2025 around July 9, July 22, and August 5.

It always intrigues me when the 3km is on the aggressive side b/c more often than not it is meh...and ends up nailing it. Anyways, 12z observed soundings are kind of garbage...though the BUF sounding shows stronger shear aloft which should overspread western areas later

Blue skies here this morning few scattered clouds. At 9:15 it is 82 with humidity at 81 and dew point at 75. Went from living in England over the weekend to the armpit of the SE in GA where Mr. J lived for a while.

decent line through most of CT and W MA mainly south of the pike before falling apart ORH->east It could be overdone, but it's something

and I guarantee that NYC will be a lot closer to JFK than it would be to the Northern Bronx ;-) The Northern Bronx is like a lower Hudson Valley climate to me I remember 2/5/2010 we had 1.5 inches here and Staten Island had 6 inches. That's why we have snowfall ranges, for that storm 1-6 inches would have been a far range for the southern half of the city.

Weather models are just not as sexy as space exploration. Plus, if you achieve your goals in space, or landing on Mars, you can see your achievements. Even if you improve the GFS, there are still other reliable models, so the increase in forecasting accuracy overall probably wouldn't be noticeable. In the end, no real significant reward for the investment.

Good thing I just bought new tires yesterday. I was trying to get in front of a small cell in front of the main line of storms that was rotating and had a nice wall cloud on it when the gust front from the line caught me from behind. I mean wind went from 0 to 70 or 80 in a flash. This damn tree came down about 50 yards in front of me as I was going about 45mph. I think my old 10 year old tires would've probably killed me lol. Lots of really big trees, limbs, fences, sheds some roofs and barns blown down between Lapel and Muncie. Really strong microburst downdraft through that area as the trees weren't "blowing" sideways it was the wind blowing the trees actually down towards the ground. You could feel the wind coming down like a hammer. Temp went from 85 to 66 in about 90 seconds. One of the weirdest things I've ever been caught in. I drove home and put my underwear in the washer Got up this morning and we got another 3 in and its still raining. This area is flooded pretty bad.

keep the shit east of us. @Voyagerwants it

Mercy. I'm telling ya...to quote a famous Raven...this team is softer than bread pudding, lol

I'd rather keep the current system rather than lose a half hour of light in the evening for 7 months.

What is it showing?

Longest day for us is 6/20

The city is huge, that's like taking a snowfall average across the city and only using one number for the total city wide. Meanwhile JFK can have an inch while Northern Bronx has 8 inches, which has happened many times before. Or in Feb 5th 2010 when I had flurries and southern Staten Island had 10 inches. You can't do that with temps either.

I think moving half an hour ahead is a fair compromise.

The longest day isn't really on the summer solstice, it's different days in different places depending on your latitude and some other factors. For us it's usually June 26th.

Your wife needs to be "reeducated" lol Permanent EDT is the way to go

Possibly, but otherwise these weather *wars* will continue. If we could come up with a single number to describe the city it would dampen down biases any one individual station might have (NYC poorly sited, LGA/EWR running too hot, JFK seabreeze interference, etc.)

It'll be disappointing ... that's the forecast for winter. this overall social media's real purpose is to serve as a support group for folks that have a weird kind of emotional regulation issue vs being "dosed" by big model depictions. annnnd like the last 10 years of pounding lessons yet zero apparent retention ... next winter will succeed in giving plenty of reasons to make the aa meetings on time. haha, stick to forecasting the dosage amplitude - you'll all be seasonal heroes

Interesting that both pac and atl have similar spatial patterns

The one other thing I really need to start doing is something like a weekly monitoring/assessment once we enter the Fall. Take some time and assess the real-time global regime, analyze how forecast models are evolving the pattern globally, and closely analyze the medium/long range and then try and do some sort of verification once we get into that time range. I just hope I get time to do this...I start grad school in a few months and doing 2 classes + still working so I am going to have to discipline myself

The best lapse rates are from like 850 to 600 at present, and of course as we heat up and clear out this shallow inversion it'll extend from the surface up. The upper levels are sort of meh. And that applies to both lapse rates and winds. I kind of think the tornado risk may be slightly underplayed, but the severe hail and straight line wind risk might be overplayed. Heavy downpours regardless, albeit hopefully transient enough to avoid flash flood risk.

How does the EURO AI work? It's not as hot as the regular Euro and focuses the 100 degree heat over NJ instead of taking it east through NYC and the coast.

Yes the miniscule loss in daylight is attributed to sunrise till Jul 9th when minimal slow decrease in sunset begins.