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The only way the younger people learn is by making mistakes

Fuck yeah I will be That said, I got to meet Jason Kelce last night!!

Because its more in line with majority of models not the 2-3 ft gfs and nam

Congrats, man. You've been wanting this storm for a while. Hope you enjoy it.

Let's refresh: The "Point" map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The "Range" map is the 25th percentile (lower number) to 75th percentile (higher number) of possible snowfall amounts based on the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Super Ensemble output during the time period of the graphic. The official NWS snowfall forecast influences this range of values either up or down depending upon how closely they match.

Temps will be a problem until the evening

It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it.

We are so lucky to have you posting in here. Many thanks!!! Here's hoping we all get blasted, which seems like a solid bet at this point lol

post less!

ICON better phase and more amped.

The snowfall/depth tools on these models are a joke. Best you can do is use qpf and pick a reasonable ratio and figure it out. 3km NAM has over 20" of snow falling here but a depth of a few inches as the event ends. Thats some hella compaction/melting. Maybe the high winds blew it away lol.

GFS is the new King!

Yes

Definitely more realstic

Wow so many new pages, been playing top golf with fire dept. Looks good

I was here lurking at the time. I went out and bought two generators and enough gas to ride out the storm comfortably. I remember reading on here then seeing that there was going to be a full moon and thought….holy sh*t…..

This really is a tough situation especially taking temperatures into account, etc. I'm usually loath to be "critical" but I do find this to be a bit of an odd snowfall distribution. Some of the areas that are currently under a warning actually have less than warning criteria on that expected snowfall map. Also, just checking WPC's 50th percentile amounts, it has been showing significantly more (on the order of ~6-10" near DC, with higher as you go northeast and to the east of the Bay). I would absolutely not want to be on the hot seat making decisions on this, for sure!

Icon should be better

Saw the number of replies and knew something crazy happened. I wanna get greedy at this point.

all-timer

I wonder what it would for them to forecast those ridiculous totals for the Lehigh Valley lmfao

Your station has been offline all day

as impressive as the pressure gradient is, the 500 mb evolution of '78 is the best I've ever seen