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  2. Typhoon Tip
    I know ... and it smacks like a bit of a synergistic feedback/resonance between the endemic ability to heat that area, with the ID CGT correlating to ridging there.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. Brewbeer
    No, it may be above normal, but it won’t be a “torch”.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc...
  6. MJO812
    True El ninos are better the further south you go . I wouldnt be shocked if they do well especially if blocking develops.
  7. mahantango#1
    .17 rain overnight.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I kind of feel dirty for saying this, but December doesn't look awful on the EURO....it starts that ridge up by HB, near where the basin-wide composite has it, before it slides ESE and presses as the season evolves. January looks the most hostile IMHO, especially for the coast. Pretty damn near climo snowfall...almost looks like the Feb storm track.
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  10. mitchnick
    A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO seems to favor the interior for January, kind of like 1987 and 2003, and then a coastal track for February...the type that @dryslothates, which gets shunted eastward by a block, as the Canadian ridge intensifies and presses.
  12. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  13. weatherwiz
    Looks like the ridge is finding a new home just in time for winter
  14. NorthHillsWx
    They aren’t done yet. Norbert looks like it will at least threaten the islands. Crazy Nino
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Best ENSO analog def. looks like 1997, but I still like 1982 better as a seasonal analog.
  16. dendrite
    0.74” overnight. We take. Muggy this morning. Min of 65° Not 100% from the migraines so still limiting screen time. I’ll try to tackle PM responses when I can.
  17. Mikeymac5306
    Yeah you weren't kidding! I finally got around to getting them last night and putting them out. This morning I come down and there are ants scrambling in and out of the bait traps. Hundreds! I told the wife just leave them alone and see what happens by the end of the weekend.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully that gap closes a bit more, but it will be tough...maybe get it to .3.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guidance is def. coming into better agreement on this remaining pretty east-based, as the CANSIPS is now in better agreement with the EURO in that regard, but I still think it tries to become more equally distributed once it peaks....but probably gets placed in the east-based bin when all said in done.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Hopefully that rain Sunday morning works out and doesn’t end up a S coast special
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Congrats Apps and OHRV.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. MJO812
    Congrats DC?
  25. CoastalWx
    Looks like a two day mild down before the equinox before we warm again. We embrace the warmth.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewaveInteresting how the EURO seasonal likes the OHRV for snowfall...maybe due to some modification of the STJ that you have referenced....also fits with a PDO that never goes wholesale positive.
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