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Oh, my bad. I thought you meant in general.

gfs still selling, others not far off gonna be a raw one either way, especially lakeside

Bump. I was thinking about this old thread today. IMBY I'd add 1/6/2025 to the list for sure- I'd even put it above HECS 2016, despite having several inches less in the end.

Hopefully NYC can get the 4” in Dec that normally translates to a good Nina winter. If under 4” the winter will almost certainly be a bust. We need to take advantage of the early winter window Nina often provides to get on the board.

A little mixed precip here

I think he was referring to Eric's analogs. I might be wrong, though.

I didn't see it referenced as an analog, could it be?

what I thought was interesting about last night was the smell of higher DP air that raced in just ahead of that activity. It was dark, but the scud above was vaguely lit by the cityscape beneath. They could be seen as tilteding NW to SE as they skirted along a WSW trajectory - a physical observation consistent with positive helicity. I remember thinking in the moment how unusual those tandem observations were for November ... Didn't think much of it again until pea-sized hail and rain sheets pushed around by a big woosh of wind swept through a couple of hours later.

Why???

Yeah, 2000 was the best of the "recent" analogs. Solid above average snowfall winter.

Happy Election Day to all who hopefully celebrate by voting! It should be a great weather day but a bit breezier than yesterday. Temperatures this afternoon should be close to normal for early November. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures into the mid 60's for most spots. We turn chillier on Thursday and Friday with rain by Friday night. We still look to turn much colder than normal by the start of the new work week with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 40's for highs on Monday.

Happy Election Day to all who hopefully celebrate by voting! It should be a great weather day but a bit breezier than yesterday. Temperatures this afternoon should be close to normal for early November. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures into the mid 60's for most spots. We turn chillier on Thursday and Friday with rain by Friday night. We still look to turn much colder than normal by the start of the new work week with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 40's for highs on Monday.

Although not an analog, 2017/2018 would be the ideal scenario for a fast start winter. Cashing in on the early winter opportunities, followed by a late season STRONG blocking episode.

You need to forget those mets and follow JI's wintery mix lol. Most accurate page on the internet. No hype at all lol

December 2021 had that big MJO 6-7 standing wave with drove the strong -PNA and the +13 around DFW. The most impressive 500 mb high latitude blocks over the last decade have been over the Kara and Barents seas areas. Could be some degree of feedback with the record low Arctic sea ice in that area.

I don't blame any TV or social media met for going average/above average in temps for winter. Since 2016, we've been stuck in a long term cycle of above normal temps during winter. Last year was the first real exception.

Yes. Fast start, then typically a collapse of winter. That may be the baseline for this coming winter where things get off to a good start and then winter ends prematurely.

I've been wating with baited breath for a 1917 redux ever since the Titanic sank.

I don't, either. My mind has been made up for months, but as in mathamtics, time to show the work.

I have no issue with that...totally reasonable take.

31 and frosty this morning!

I agree with probably 95% of your thoughts on this winter…however, I do part ways on the PNA. I think it’s going to be significantly more negative than you are thinking….no, not 2022-23 negative obviously, but yea

I have already asked Santa for some pro winter posts from @snowman19for Christmas....he has his work cut out for him.

Yea, I think most would sign for wintry holiday period, regardless of what was in the fine print of the deal with the devil.