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Unless you moved you absolutely used to live in NJ

All I needed to hear. It seems like every year people throw out that Winter, but it's nice to hear it from a more critical/educated voice.

I do like that we may get to phase 8, and low amp (which is usually the coldest version of 8) and that La Nina is much more likely to produce a +MVP, which means a deep Eastern trough.

Highly, highly unlikely imo.

Euro AI has something tropical near the end of the run too.

Last 70's until 12/24.

If you look at December snowfall for my analogs, it's good in NE and not so great in the mid Atlantic.

Trough east of Hawaii rule-that trough should push east but we have to be patient until probably second half of the month. Hopefully the SE ridge can be muted by then.

That is insanely good information, John.

Looks like nothing to track through 12/7, unless something surprises.

New thread for post 12/7 ;]

He is speaking from a mid Atlantic perspective. We are fine.

I agree that IF/WHEN there is a meaningful snow event in SNE, it will likely happen beyond day 10. I think that because there is broad agreement between the GEPS, GEFS, and EPS of no big threat before then. I don't think that because of anything visible in the longer-range. There is still some room to sneak in something wintry before then... e.g., the weak wave over the center of the US on the GFS at day 6 could evolve into something more... or numerous other very minor threats... but none are likely based on the current ensemble spreads.

Killington and Stowe have opened for skiing. May the snow soon come a few hundred miles south.

Well as we have said, I think anything meaningful is after the first week. But the interior could sneak something in prior.

That's an ad hominem. I've been posting about New England weather longer than you have. Where I live (which happens to be very geographically close to your home state), is irrelevant. If you disagree with something I wrote than say so.

I remember a few years ago we passed through phase 8 and it didn't get cold. I believe it was an el Niño, so the mentioned/proposed MVP likely wasn't favorable. I do believe ph 7 is generally normally BN here in winter. The article I linked above noted that phase 7 seemed to be unaffected by the state of the proposed MVP.

Southern NJ where you live has literally nothing to do with New England or weather correlation. Even NYC Climo is better then yours man

Been reading on the MJO today as I wait for the Tennessee game to start. The MJO phase only affects North American temperatures apparently in relation to the proposed in the paper, MVP (multivariate PNA). For instance, in the article I am reading, phase 5 is only warm if the MVP is also negative. This is from that paper. "The MVP is the first combined EOF of 20–100-day OLR, 850-hPa streamfunction, and 200-hPa streamfunction over the North Pacific and North America. The North American temperature patterns that follow each phase of the MJO change with the sign of the MVP. For example, real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 5 usually leads to warm anomalies over eastern North America. This relationship was only found when the MVP was negative, and it was not associated with El Niño or La Niña. RMM phase 8, on the other hand, usually leads to cold anomalies. Those anomalies only occur if the MVP is positive, which happens somewhat more frequently during La Niña years. Composite analyses based on combinations of the MJO and the MVP show that variability in the Pacific jet and its associated wave breaking play a key role in determining whether and how the MJO affects North American temperatures." The article can be found here. https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fmwre$002f141$002f11$002fmwr-d-13-00118.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fmwre%24002f141%24002f11%24002fmwr-d-13-00118.1.xml

Haha. The 18z GFS has freaking hurricane in the Gulf on December 6th. Not sure I have seen that before!

For regional weather forecasting, beyond 10 days has low predictive utility, even on the ensemble means. And we don't even have anything favorable within that time period yet. Right now we are looking at mostly a storm track to our west with cold snaps on the wake of storms. That's within seasonal norms. If we get a cold and snowy look inside day 10 on multiple ensembles, it's a plausible outcome. Inside day 7 and it's worth getting a little excited about. But IMO, anything outside of that range is fantasy range territory.

Don't count your chickens guys/gals. It's risky to lock in a cold Canada based on a 15 day model forecast. Plenty of individual members plus operational runs show only transient cold up there. The ensemble mean blends it to look like wall to wall continuous cold, which it likely won't be. Out to day 10 does not look favorable for wintry weather at the moment on the ensembles. Beyond that gets increasingly unreliable in terms of predictive value. Most of us are passionately hoping for cold and snowy. But we've seen it too often over the past few years where many here bake in unrealistic expectations based on fantasy-range model charts.

Need the cold to get the snow.

12/9/92 might be my favorite storm, mostly for the nostalgia.

SWFEs are such an easy forecast. 5-7” thump followed by slot and drizzle. Could stat padders too.