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2-3” there

HH gfs well west

I get it…no worries Scott. What did the rain amounts look like?

Sorry, was busy. Yeah comes north a bit more than euro before peeling west which is better gradient from CT to here.

Thank you Tiger. Appreciate it.

Good post. Not sure why you replied to mine though lol. Should have been a stand alone post. Not really relevant and out of context to what I posted.. I was just making a funny about not much happening in the thread other than Will promising to post every CFS Control run going forward. Yes most of us don't want/need to see that crap. Pretty clear how this winter will play out in general.

At least from my amateur perspective it spends more time over water while close to the coast and is slightly more amped up pressure and rainfall-wise despite being further south

Today's high was a beautiful 59 degrees.

Have to get some clarification on why there issuing watches for only minor flooding forecasts based on what they just issued, watches criteria is when moderate to major flooding is forecast within certain amount of time.

Low of 59... at 12:42pm. First 50s of the season. High of 63 at 4:30pm.

Please elaborate a bit…please.

Gfs is good

Like a tropical system with banding.

Coastal flood products are just being issued watches and stuff.

makes sense in a way-the meso's are wrapping it up more where as the less resolution globals arent-a weak storm is likely to get further north

18z gfs looks very similar to the ai cones too too about the shore of Long Island then decides to head to times square

Good thing the rain comes in waves instead of a continuous downpour. Will help with flooding.

18z gfs ai still doing is loop over Montauk. Not doing what the rgem or nam did.

Bust calls incoming. Typical me, I’ll let others start them, and I’ll join later on. Doh

rainfall wise-the RGEM has trended south some-heaviest now south of LI

18Z GFS well south 42hrs out, yet not rotating to the coastline.

Delaware Beaches- 1257 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of up to 12 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Delaware Beaches. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Warning, until 2 AM EDT Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Saturday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...At this level, widespread roadway flooding occurs in coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal waterways. Many roads become impassable. Some damage to vulnerable structures may begin to occur. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Models are trending a good bit stronger in the short term (HRRR out 14 hours is 5mb lower than a few runs ago) but of course a little more south/west. I think to max this out, either we stop the bleeding there while maintaining intensity, or hope that it is able to maintain intensity and occlude later, and move over SNE instead of burying itself in Long Island

Nothing like the NAM though