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AI and op euro with a widespread 1-3. Interesting AI how to keep refreshing it while pushing the grinch away.

Is there a chart on what models seem to matter? There’s always a seemingly week-to-week change in the rankings depending upon people’s moods and emotional states. .

Euro showing similar ticks of the heights north in the east the rest of the 12z suite has shown.

Winter 1995-1996 is complete in the Winter Storm Archive. 23 events that season, 15 of which made into the WS Archive as 3"+ events and 66 total maps. Winter 94-95 will be the complete polar opposite with the least amounts of events in any season - 3. And two of those are pushing it, it really only snowed once that season, of any real consequence region wide. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-95-96

If you blindly look at guidance without any ability to process the events of the past several years, or think critically, sure.

For sure. I was jealous of the cars coming down the hill from Granville this A.M. with a couple fresh inches on them. Just sheer black ice for me at 5:30!

Well, in that case...phew.

Doesn't have to be of that magnitude to be a grinch.

I think that is a pre-requisitie to getting better...but it's a lateral move.

What’s amazing is that we’ve even been able to snow at all last year and some this year with these moisture starved shortwaves. It takes a potent shortwave to wring out moisture east of mountains with zero gulf connection or Atlantic development. What caused all the nor Easter’s this summer? I know most of them didn’t cause a lot precip inland but it seemed there was a coastal low almost weekly over the summer. Was it just the well established eastern trough or was there a southern stream connection? I cannot remember I just know the obx took a beating

Folks jaded. As soon as there’s a hint of a cutter/or any mildness around the 20th, it’s the grinch. Kind of getting out of hand, but that’s how it goes.

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

Euro ai shifted north.

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

If you read above, I didn't forget, But also modeling is not showing a grinch storm to that magnitude if any to even be concerned about at ATT.

There is an enough variability in the long range not to worry about Christmas atm. As far as Sun/Mon system goes, as a few of us have said…Stay the course.

Yeah, I'm with you. Pretty steady on a 1 to 2 inch event. You can tell an inter-forum sentiment is brewing tho. Gotta keep the Ft Sumter moment from happening tho. But I wouldn't be surprised with this slipping north tho.

How quickly you forget Grinch 2020. 18-36 across CNE/NNE on the 15th to 17th, followed by a cold week. Then 2" RA at 55+ wiped it all out (and with the winds and dews even some manmade trails were scoured off). These are all snow depths; actual accumulation before settling was often higher. Woodstock Vt: 18"-->0" RUT: 18" --> 0" Peru, Vt: 31" --> 4" CON: 21" --> 2" GYX: 11" --> 0" Poland, Maine: 18" --> 0" PWM: 13" --> 0" Bradford, NH: 19" --> 3" Sandwich, NH: 16" --> 0" EEN: 18" --> 0" Newport, NH: 25" --> 2"

The lack of a southern jet is a semi-permanent feature that’s developed through the summer. Models looked like that was flipping coming into the month but nothing has changed. Until we get something coming from the southern stream the ripping northern and pac jet is going to kill us regardless of what cold is available. The ongoing drought is all you need to know about our southern stream energy through the fall. That’s going to be the biggest fail mechanism this winter I’m sure of it

All I know is that while we've got a few inches on the ground now, we are in need of a refresher. It's certainly not looking fresh as this point!

2” as opposed to 0”

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

Be dramatic. This place is boring.

We just went over this a week or so back, I saw pics with folks that had decent pack, It was ugly.

so much for that prediction lol