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12z GFS/GEFS are on the cold end of the guidance. I think it will end up trending warmer in the D9+ range towards the other models.

"It stinks and it sucks!" or "when you stink, you stink!" -- BOS sports quote from the late 80s!

Sure I undeerstand. Haven't seen the 12z op but the 0z Euro op didn't look summery -and 12z gfs does not either. Of course I want early summer but I personally don't see any extravagant LR signals yet

Not sure what your after here? but ensemble means will invariably look blase'. They're comprised of some 50 members, the vaster majority of which will not only be wrong, but are likely to bring a solution that is outside a small tolerance window - averaging those wrong solutions in with 2 or 3 good ones leaves you with something other than a narrow tolerance that fits whatever you're looking for. That's why if ensemble members look good at an extended lead that's more ominous, because it means the physical signals are loud enough to be picked up by more and more members. It kind of goes both ways, too. If the ensemble means are shitty, but the operational run is good ...particularly at longer leads, you have to take the operational run with a grain of salt that it may be too amplified.

Doom and gloom forecasts Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC.

Dude its may. No one knows what next weeks weather will be like let alone next winter. Long range forecasting has been awful for years.

A good call here. Chilly wx for early May.

70, dewpoint 32! Christmas in Phoenix!!

Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines.

this looks meh to me. I suppose WNE could severe with that, eventually

Everything going well, legend?

This is exactly why it was an excellent business move, lol Hey the team may be struggling, but this city would NOT pass up a Tupac bobblehead! Catie Griggs hasn't been great at reading the room, but this was spot on, haha

yeah, I mentioned it a few days ago too. Thing is, .... ugh this is gonna turn some eyes but we're getting some of this seasonal lag business that was papered. It's more and less evidenced year to year. It's because of CC's speeding up of the jet stream in recency. It lends to extending the wave lengths deeper into the springs, which causes the aberrant cool "excursions" - the paper refers to these as unseasonable jet meanders. In winter as well, with unusually deep cold intrusions to mid latitudes, setting up very extreme temperature gradients which in turn speeds up the jets... It's a status of where we are, not necessarily where we are heading in the grand scheme of things... Sensibly it's well footed. There's also empirical data. I can tell you more than merely anecdotally, prior to 2000 I observed snow between Kalamazoo MI and Boston MA, twice in 31 years. Since? about 1/3 to 2/5ths of the years have had snow in May or an atmosphere supportive of snow at the synoptic scale/mass. This is also true at the other end of the dial in autumns. Where I'm going is two fold: A, this lending to a kind of forgetfulness about where things could be if this were not taking place. It's no one's fault per se. We get conditioned/acclimated... But really we've been colder than the back ground since last autumn, and now the jet is meandered to extend things further - that's what this really looks like... -refer to annotated post I provided several hours ago. That is an anachronistic SPV B, when does this break down? The hints we're seeing may be seeing the end.

Don't get me wrong, though - I get where you are coming from. But I'm just doing this as a hobby and competing against a steady stream of dis- and misinformation. There are accounts that are actually PAID big bucks just to spread climate disinformation. For an unpaid hobbyist to compete against a career liars, AI is an absolute must.

That signal has started to show the past few days. It is growing legs.

I'm wondering if this rain for tomorrow ends up being more like a 3,500' evap level virga sky

heh...12z Euro ends that run way out there in a deep summer vibe.

lol....It's almost like someone was reading the conversation in here...

Sorry, I don't have time to write my own posts. And ChatGPT headlines get far more engagement than any I could create.

There is a BUZZ for Tupac bobblehead giveaway night at the Yards -people started lining up around noon - the queue at the main gate behind CF is full as of now (2:50 pm)

You are very committed to discussing all facets of climate change, and I admire your effort. However, would you possibly be up for moving away from AI usage in your posts? I can't help but see all the hallmarks of it throughout your Twitter page. A lot of it undermines your overall message, and I'm not talking from the energy consumption standpoint, but instead just the overall strength of the rhetoric you and consequently ChatGPT use.

HRRR did pretty well yesterday having these showers moving through

My super ensemble had rain for you https://synoptic-weather-lens.base44.app

I’ve noticed a weird phenomenon of drought denial online — and not just from the usual suspects. Sometimes it is even promoted by people I would not expect to do it, like @Typhoon Tipwas entertaining from the usual suspects. But the PDSI is not the Drought Monitor. It is not a subjective map or a weekly expert assessment. It is an objective drought index built from the two core inputs that matter most: maximum temperature and precipitation. And for the first four months of 2026, the U.S. has had by far the highest average maximum temperatures on record and the second-lowest precipitation on record. The most alarming thing is how much lower the PDSI is than 1934 at the same point. That was by far the worst drought observed since at least 1000 CE, per paleo evidence. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014gl061661