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I think mid-October is most important. The last week of October nears "0" correlation historically. Of course there are only 73 years in the dataset, but it comes out to a 56% opposite correlation (Oct to DJFM mean). Then after the dataset ends in 2020, 5 of the last 5 years have flipped, Oct to the Winter. Pretty interesting. Of course over like 250 years I think all months of the year probably correlate to all months of the year NAO, because the NAO is decadal. -
Here is time sensitive
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In the N. Pacific PNA region, October and November combined have higher correlation numbers than December.
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Storms blew up overhead and just east here. Modeled fairly well. Not much to show since it was just east.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thanks, Anthony. One thing I’ll say is that there’s nothing unusual about having a W QBO during a very strong El Niño as: -1957, 1982, and 2015 had it -1965, 1972, 1991, and 1997 didn’t -
Not your typical strong El Nino
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not your typical strong El Nino
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Good storms up here tonight.
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First record of the week. Can we set two more? Looks likely. We'll see. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 0441 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1954.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
GEFS also sees this: The most similar El Niño Octobers to this forecast of a solid -NAO in late Oct after a mainly +NAO in early to mid Oct are 1976 and 1963 with 2002 the next most similar. @Stormchaserchuck1
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Decent storms overhead here. I keep forgetting average highs are in the low-mid 60s now and my perception of what a “normal” fall is supposed to feel like is becoming skewed. More seasonable weather for the rest of the week, but the extended sure looks warm after the Fri/Sat cooldown.
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Better then anything this past summer,
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Nice 10/16-17 season changer en route Always seems to be a warm to cold event on those days
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good banger.
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I am at 0.24” for the day from several passing showers. Nice to see this playing out.
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House rattling thunder was not on my bingo card
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Was supposed to be a stormy evening, but alas the storms fired about 25 miles east of here. More rain chances ahead for tomorrow night and Thu.
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I found the thumbnail to the 11/27/1950 edition of the Concord Monitor
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Same at my place. The dew point was way up! The dew point is 65 right now, giving us high relative humidity once again at night time.
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Actually had a few random, unexpected showers today. .09". Hopefully a good sign for next couple days.
