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Yes, I though this window was going to close about 12 hrs early than it is. Nice from a met standpoint, not so nice for the Gulf coast.

Isaias is now a major. Bathtub doing bathtub things.

GFS says no….10/25 it has a monster trough and storm on the coast. Yup…it’s a junk model now, and way out in time, but it’s no different than saying what you’re saying. And why would we not want mild and comfortable in mid October? It’s exactly what we are supposed to have. Most of us have already had our first frost, and frozen vehicle morning just two days ago. We are stepping down nicely.

F'N... ALEET.

I cannot believe what I am seeing. Thing should be getting shredded like it hit the Hispaniola mountains yet the west side of the storm is enveloped with -60 tops.

Sorry, here was the D3 text and categorical risk. Doesn't say tor risk but I think we know... ...Delmarva into the Carolinas... Considerable strengthening of the deep-layer wind field is forecast on Sunday in advance of the midlevel trough. However, considerable cloud cover and areas of precipitation appear likely to limit air mass destabilization within the poleward-expanding warm sector. Nonetheless, boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s will support pockets of modest instability, especially in areas where cloud breaks may occur. And given the presence of relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear, a conditional risk for severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes will exist Sunday into Sunday evening. Higher severe weather probabilities may be required in later forecasts if subsequent model data indicate greater instability than that currently depicted.

Isaias is now a major hurricane. 7:20 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 27.0°N 87.6°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

Latest pressure went up so slightly from 958 to 959. Maybe a sign that it has maxed out and some weakening could start happening during the day.

Another convective tower trying to wrap around the eye as it fights some intense shear on the West side. Wish we had one more pass to see if pressure drops or holds steady

Isaias is now a Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 120 in and near the eyewall. Tropical Storm Force wind extend out just about 200 miles from the center.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (6) Hurricanes: 3 (1) Major Hurricanes: 1 (1) Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias (MH) Homebrew delivers again...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUMGXpaXQAAwuKb?format=jpg&name=medium

Isaias now a major hurricane.

Yeah, very tough call. Just a few hours made the difference here, though it's incredibly impressive how well GDM has been through the entirety of this one. Like you said in another post, it was easy to hedge east for this one, and GDM never backed down on a higher end peak. Well, keep in mind that Idalia hit one of the least populated areas of the state. Idalia's eyewall was legit, but less damage=less need for retirement. That won't be the case with this one, even if it's weakening at the end, because it's hitting real population centers. Not to mention the yet to be seen inland impacts in the south. Agree with this too. There's going to be a line of discussion here tonight about why we're not seeing G125 across the landfall zone and it'll be because 1) that's not how things work lol and 2) the strongest winds in a decaying core may be concentrated in a few spots. Still bad to be clear with other impacts and with wind itself, but as I've found, eyewall dynamics and impacts are more mesoscale than people tend to realize.

If there is a time for further strengthening it’s now through 18z or so. Definitely good venting helping out.

And it’s officially a Cat 3

Bad attitude. Reservoirs fill just as well on Tuesday/Wednesday rain as they do on Saturday/Sunday rain. eta: Reservoirs fill best on HECS/MECS snow melt. They just do.

Good catskills skiing??

Fully supported by recon data. That’s why NHC waited at 8 am knowing they had a plane heading straight for the money pass. Great job hurricane hunters. This might peak at cat 4

7:20 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 27.0°N 87.6°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

If it weakens right before landfall and the core erodes like some models have, best winds may be found in the convection modeled on the NW side of the center. Would make it more difficult to maximize best winds in that area accounting for forward motion. You really need good mixing to maximize your best winds at the surface. That’s why it makes all the difference when a storm is intensifying as it makes landfall vs weakening. I’m not minimizing this, just stating what we know with these storms.

Likely near peak intensity at just over major hurricanes strength right now with pressure leveling off around 960 MB and winds catching up to pressure now supporting a major hurricane around 115-120 at the surface

Upgrade coming. What a pass. Might be 120

If Idalia didn't get retired, this one probably won't be either. Idalia got up to high end C4 speed, and this one is barely going to be a C3.

@WxWatcher007It was such a tough call on whether to pull the trigger on major peak or not when I issued the first stab on Wednesday...I'm happy with the forecast overall, but looks like I may have underestimated my 110mph peak a bit. I thought conditions would be hostile by dawn today, so that is the difference. Also happy with the Thursday night hedge for best deepening window.