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JMA did that today, too....20 year redux?

13.7 actually.

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it's looking great right now at hr60. At the very least, going to be a significant improvement from 12z and 18z. Trough is turning neutral over Tennessee and much more amplified. Just need to get that final backside trough energy to phase in...

Not enough phasing between the vorts. Better, but not there.

Dang they're down to 14 now?

Def a step in the right direction on nam, lets see how it plays out

WB 0Z NAM at HR. 57 is more amped than 18Z and going neutral

NAM ain't gonna do it, but the trends are good

It’s getting there

Me too. 24 hour interval polygon sharp lines and mslp only. Almost useless. It's kinda like how we have the JMA now. I remember looking at Feb 2006 and being like oh that's a blizzard that's nice and moved on back to the NCEP site.

Something tells me this run isn't going to do it. But still long range.

It's different for sure. dont have a damn clue good or bad though

Would love to see that backside energy aggressively phase and pump heights ahead of it as it's pretty low at this point.

You'll know this is legit when folks start to worry about a mix line..............lol

as do many here...

Yea, I'm just being neurotic. I was mentally resigning, and now have a foot back in and vulnerable.

I wouldn’t focus on the QPF That 500 mill bar combined with that surface there’s no way that thing isn’t causing major major snow problems, clear to Fitchburg

Yea, I said that about even the EURO....QPF won't sniff the mid level band.

NAM trending better out west. Still not where we want it tho so far

I thought he was discussing it with someone in Tuckahoe (southern Westchester county). Was just saying it was a solid storm there and never went to rain. It did go to sleet even up to my location earlier then initially forecast but still a top storm with 10+ snow/sleet combo Bronx north. Believe the city officially got 7-8” of mostly sleet.

With that 500 mill bar in that surface depiction the way that series has it? I know you just meant in general, but that thing would have huge wind and snow problems all the way in But I don’t use that model anyway so just commenting to what that looks like. It actually kind of reminds me of the old DGEX

That isn't what I would consider full commitment....

Dazed and confused?

Is this gonna be a wet pavement deal where it’s sleet/ mix or is it gonna be a mess? Plowable snow overnight tomorrow or something that can be melted off with salt? Trying to plan for a crew