All Activity

So boring Bring back La Nina

Bring back la nina

Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...

My hydrangeas laughing at frost and freeze and folks saying there’s been one here and faulty equipment

I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.

Without referencing any enso simililarities (or lack thereof), this fall has really reminded me of the fall of 21. I don't think SNE reallly got any snow that year until the Tuck-rule game. Hopefully this year will be better than that.

Yea I saw some in bloom last week. But I also said it might be due to when they were trimmed because October wasn’t that warm.

Hey look we actually won a game

In case anyone needs to know, the effect of bias adjustment on global average land temperatures is negligible. Why? Different parts of the world have different weather equipment histories with different biases. Net cooling bias in the US is balanced by warming bias elsewhere. Even in the US the effect of bias adjustment is relatively small compared to the warming experienced. Per Berkelely Earth charts below, bias adjustment warms the US by roughly 0.5C since 1850, which is 25-30% of the just under 2C warming since 1850 (US average warming is similar to global land average). The magnitude of the NCEI and Berkeley Earth bias adjustment's for the US are similar. Why is the US different from the rest of the world? There are known sources of US bias, the largest being time of day bias. Another factor is the US reliance on volunteer observers. As lives changed, COOP stations moved or changed. Fortunately, the US has thousands of stations and the changes at individual changes occurred at different times. By comparing US COOP stations, bias adjustment is very effective in identifying and correcting station changes. Finally note that Chesco is overestimating the effect of bias adjustment by not replicating NCEI's or Berkeley Earths methods. Main sources of error in his simple calculations: not accounting for changes in the station network with time, not removing the temperature difference between stations, and not accounting for the uneven grouping of stations. Depending on the area analyzed, these additional sources of error/bias can be as large or larger than bias adjustment alone. In contrast, Berkeley Earth and NCEI isolate the effect of bias adjustment by keeping all the other calculations the same when they compare bias adjustment and raw data cases. https://x.com/RARohde/status/1779044943501152416

Im in the low 30's, 50s not far away

Days and days of 70s.

Major flooding in Florida during what is normally a dry month there with how extreme this east based forcing is becoming.

I was more or less referring to the weeklies. I think they would be showing some hints of a pattern change if the Strat was showing signs of coupling.

Evidence growing to support your guess that this warming event never actually downwells to the bottom of the stratosphere and couples with the troposphere, then rapidly strengthens again into early December

This El Niño is so far ahead of 1997 in literally every metric (surface temps, subsurface temps, sea level heights, WWBs, DWKWs, 30C warm pool, warm water volume/OHC) it’s not funny. And we are about to see even more strengthening this month and into December with the oncoming massive WWB. The strongest east-based super El Niño in history is a lock

US National Weather Service State College PA Did you know that October 2026 was one of the LEAST WINDY Octobers on record in Central PA? With high pressure nearby for most of the month, there was little to no wind most days! A wet summer followed by a dry, warm, & calm October made for IDEAL fall colors

^This coming off a very wet july-oct 11th period with 20.43".

My station, not even a T of rain recorded for 16 consecutive days, and 0.12" past 22 days. Will add a few more days on to that streak .

Mammoth is getting rocked by heavy snow, that is not even on the radar! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Snow guns are Blasting as well!