All Activity

i think that's in AMS' official glossary, yeah... 5 = torch

We know this ... but just in case. The idea that acorns can predict a wet warm or snowy cold winter has very low or no skill as a forecasting metric. Years with perceived surpluses of acorns have nothing to do with ensuing seasonality. According to all science/peer reviewal, those were influenced/triggered by past environmental factors - so yeah... , it was cold and snowy last year. or warm and wet... which ever. tell us what we already know. but obviously... we are so fantastically bored -

Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol

Some nice, plump red oak acorns this year.

Pretty big acorn year. Not the worst I’ve seen here, but there’s a lot . Nightmare

A torch is 5 or more AN. Just like toddy and how it’s mainly been Torch !

September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip

I used 850t anomaly because I feel thats a better metric for snow but either way.

It's time for the increasingly annual tradition! Happy Peak Season everybody!

I'm beginning to see some consistency in the the various models that the first shot of chilly air could arrive in about 10 days. Fingers crossed that those models are correct!

October 15th

September 10 2002: A late-season tornado strikes Albertville just after midnight .According to a damage survey conducted by NWS personnel, it touched down on the eastern edge of Cedar Creek Golf Course, then it moved straight east and dissipated in a city park just west of the railroad tracks. It completely tore the roof off of one home. Roofs were partially off a number of other homes, many attached garages collapsed, and a couple of houses were rotated on their foundation. About 20 homes were damaged, nine of which sustained significant damage. 1986: 3 inch hail falls in Watonwan County. 1947: Downpours fall across the Iron Range. Hibbing receives 8.6 inches in three hours. 1931: St Cloud experiences a record high of 106 degrees, and it reaches 104 degrees in Minneapolis. 1910: The shortest growing season on record in Duluth ends, with frost free days from June 14 to September 10 (87 days). Normally the frost-free season is 143 days. For Thursday, September 10, 2026 1919 - A hurricane struck the Florida Keys drowning more than 500 persons. (David Ludlum) 1960 - Hurricane Donna struck the Florida Keys, with winds gusting to 180 mph and a thirteen foot storm surge. The hurricane then moved north along the eastern coast of Florida and inundated Naples before moving out to sea. Hurricane Donna claimed fifty lives, injured 1800 others, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. The Marathon/Tavernier area was almost completely destroyed, and in the Citrus Belt, most of the avacado crop was blown from the trees. Hurricane Donna wreaked havoc from Florida to Maine, with wind gusts to 100 mph along much of the coast. Hurricane Donna produced wind gusts to 121 mph at Charleston SC on the 11th, and wind gusts to 138 mph at Blue Hill Observatory MA on the 12th. The hurricane finally died over Maine two days later, producing more than five inches of rain over the state. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A late afternoon thunderstorm roared through Austin TX producing wind gusts to 81 mph, and 2.17 inches of rain in just sixty minutes. The high winds toppled six National Guard helicopters at the Robert Mueller Municipal Airport, and damaged or destroyed numerous other aircraft. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Cool air sweeping into the north central U.S. brought snow to some of the higher elevations of Montana. The town of Kings Hill, southeast of Great Falls, was blanketed with six inches of snow. Tropical Storm Gilbert strengthened to a hurricane over the eastern Caribbean. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Light snow fell in Montana overnight, with three inches reported at Fairfield. Billings MT reported a record low of 33 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with record highs of 86 degrees at Caribou ME and 90 degrees at Burlington VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 10 Thu National School Picture Day 10 Thu National Swap Ideas Day 10 Thu International Makeup Day 10 Thu World Suicide Prevention Day 10 Thu National Anti-Junk Light Day 10 Thu National TV Dinner Day 10 Thu Swap Ideas Day 10 Thu World Top Up Day

Monthly precip DJF

One aspect that lurks that I'd be careful to mention is that single event results tend to exceed QPF at an observably increasing frequency over recent decades ... I feel this needs to be a bullet point in seasonal forecasting summaries. Don't linger on it per se. Just a mention is needed. this is already papered/correlated to increased ambient WV in the overall machinery of the planet. There appears to be a synergistic phenomenology - handsome words to say that when we are raining or snowing or sleeting or hailing or whatever, when doing so through higher WV mass, favors "positive busts" The models seem to be physically challenged in this area, too - although I don't mean to claim that is true. Just that I keep seeing real events where 30" of rain in 24 hours falls and models might have had an "eye-popping" foot of rain as it is. Heh, it is almost as though eye-popping is a warming that there a GOATie uh oh'er a-comin' I was just thinking that in a year that may be a shitty wet warm one, a single snower could be something truly short duration historic. Like shock and awe given that scale/degree of ENSO plausibly feeding two sources of WV+: the ENSO itself, together with the ambient argument. That's like synergy, then synergizing yet further, in a single event that happened to roll a 7 cold enough airmass at the right time. A couple of storms like this and we have an average snow year ...when the real story ends up being the flooding next March. LOL 63" of blue snow at ORH and National Guard only reserved for Science Fiction, right? I mean that's rhetoric for fun there... but think back to December 23 1997. The day before that happened, the then 'ETA' ( grandfather to the soon-to-be made extinct blood lined NAM) model had something like .6" of total QPF at Logan, in a sounding that was -3 at 800, 0 and 900, and +2 mid way up the Pru' tower altitude. Very little or no QPF at ALB, which was colder... Now, the forecast was probably in error anyway. It was 1-3" of transparent glop for the Worcester Hills, to raining a cat paw or two down town Boston... I Emailed Harvey and thought that was too wet. I was not right enough! Because 20" of snow later, an amount that fell in 5 hours, pretty much herald in the era of choke snow deposition rates... I had seen and heard of 3 and even an unimaginable 4" in a single hour though rarely. Not a 7, book-ended by a couple of 5s! These types of events have been occurring world over, too. Rain or snow, with increasing frequency since the late 1990s. That ENSO that year ... mm seems like a climo revolving door sometimes to me.

A soaking 0.15" here that should allow the lawn to continue to curl up and burn. We take.

Monthly T2 DJF

Bottomed out at 72F overnight

Guess when your location will get its first measured snowfall, whoever is closest wins a 20$ Doordash or other restaurant card My guess: October 30th

Yeah, it's disturbing seeing all those ants. My guess is you'll see less and less each day. It's a good sign they found the bait and are taking it back to the nest. Good luck!