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NAM 3K has it down to 976 at 45hrs, east of the NC/VA border

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23st) is right in between those:

I hope we get tracks like this in 3 months.

You need the rain…why would you want that?

the nam might give you that

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

Let’s bury this in Maryland

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again.

Thats awesome!!

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete

I can already see the models festering in their schemes to create a snow chance in October ... Probably continues to deepen as these successive fast moving cold knife air mass inserts eventually mean bouts of early Lake Effect cold/LR convection grapple and cat paws. Post the 15th this all gestates into an actual snow chance perhaps. Or not, but the synoptically cryo supportive. **This isn't associated with ENSO

Anyway, back to wx. Our area of interest is still strung out. It's going to take a while to consolidate but when it does this loop is going to be very interesting to look at.

Have to wonder if the NAM is going a bit too wonky with the deepening but it keeps this warm core for some time

Nam is a dangerous scenario

I'm always fascinated when we hop down this societal rabbit hole. Can't two things be true? Some of the things we do have come to reflect an overly cautious nature. But some of the things we do also aren't the smartest. You can't cancel school on every windy day, sure. But you also can't tell the parents burying their baby oh well, it was just an act of God when you lost their child on your watch. I don't care about your politics, age, or upbringing--nobody is going to want to hear that. Especially if forecasts explicitly said a storm was coming.

Judging by recent model runs, the offshore track looks to be off the books. Looks like some significant impacts for our area. The coast is taking a beating with erosion, not a good sign so early in the season.

euro selling decent action late next week

First frost this am, Got down to 35.4°F, Coldest so far this fall.

Correct..

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different.

That would be some good wind on LI and NJ tomorrow afternoon...probably some significant coastal flooding too

Looks like it will go into NJ

NAM is pretty far west..

Big change