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That's probably true unless something over powers it like a Strong La Nina. I think, like last year, a +NAO tendency will try to happen with +pna/-epo, I just don't know if the "snap back" from last year is going to negate that. Call the theory weird, but I've been testing it and it's been working out.. a year ago we had like 10 days of -5 AAO readings around now, a month ago I said that will probably mean we get +AAO around the same time this year and it was strongly positive in early July and now early August. PDO years that "don't work" one Winter work at a coefficient of 1.25x the following year. Just random statistical stuff, but I think given the background state we are kind of due for a more -PNA Winter.. maybe -EPO. I've also been thinking, how bad would a 01-02 +EPO-like Winter be these days? It's actually been a little bit of time since the EPO has been in a strongly positive state for the Winter, and that index is very powerful at resulting US weather. I think a 01-02 style +EPO would probably put us in the 70s down here in the Winter on multiple days.

I do kind of doubt and extreme +NAO AND RNA this season....that has been tough to pull off, as Chuck can attest to. Doesn't mean it won't be warm, but just saying...

That no name super nor’easter which might as well have been a cat 2 hurricane, absolutely decimated our area back in oct 2021. I’ve never seen such destruction nor felt as unsettled from a storm as I did that night. Not something I’m keen on experiencing again anytime soon but I’ll take a good slow moving soaker with some steamy and modestly tropical influenced winds to go!

A strong Cat 1 or greater will be devastating here because of the tree growth we have had since Bob and the fact that most people are not prepared for extended power loss. One thing learned from my time in FL is that a majority of people had some sort of disaster kit, the state offered two tax free weekends where you can stock up on Hurricane related supplies. We are long over due here and people are not ready.

Of course that's the one spot on the globe that pulls a cold amomaly in this new, warmer climate.

Ended up with 1.36 inches overnight since it began at 6:30 PM yesterday evening. No rain currently, and the heavy acid of rain is to our south and east. It appears to be drifting northward, but we shall see. .

My feeling has been it will be around -1...borderish.

Not uncommon to have an ENSO attributed deviation from the loneger term Pacific trend...saw that in the late 50s, too.

Nevermind, I found the link that you had sent me (thank you).. It's actually not what I thought I saw posted. This confirms the un-correlating NAO in the last 10 years, although I think the Pacific pattern has a lot to do with it (notice the big anomalies over the West coast, usually the NAO runs 0.1-0.2 correlation out there). I think it's been -PNA/+EPO with -NAO and +PNA/-EPO with +NAO.

Like I have been saying, we will know alot more once we get into the next decade. Obviously the globe is warming...we know that now, but in terms of whether this pattern is merely one of the multidecadal fluctuations as we know them, or a longer-term CC-induced shift.

Sorry, I thought you were referring to snowfall maps. If I recall correctly, the NAO map showed a 0.5 correlation for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and lower correlation for the Northeast/Great Lakes areas. Also, the correlation has weakened since 1990.

62/59 when I left the house. Solid summer days. Not much to talk about.

I thought you had posted a US Climate division data correlation map, showing >0.5 temp correlation with the NAO over the last decade, almost everywhere in the CONUS during the cold season. This was maybe 9 months ago.

The Chester County COOP data is contaminated by station moves and other station changes, particularly in the 1945-1970 period. The three COOPs in existence in 1945 all had major cooling moves in this period: Coatesville (1946-47), Phoenixville (1948) and West Chester (1970). The Coatesville and West Chester moves have been well documented in this thread. The Phoenixville move in 1948 was equally significant as shown in the chart below. During the 1941-54 period covered by the chart, PHL tracks West Chester closely, along with with ABE and the Newark Ag station. I showed above that the airport PHL tracks Chester County station data very well when station moves are excluded: West Chester 1941-69, Coatesville 1948-current, Phoenixville 2000-25, and all the other Chesco stations. You can't understand Chester County's climate without recognizing and accounting for the station moves and other changes at the Chester County COOPs.

My snowfall contingency tables for DCA, PHL, and NYC are AO-PNA tables.

Looks like some folks in the western piedmont-triad are going to stay in the 60s today! That is unbelievable for early August. -20 degree daytime departures from average just Wow

I was wrong relying on EPS for the OH Valley potential rainfall here. GEFS looks far superior for late this week, well in advance. My wrong. Now I worry about flash drought here in the Tri state, especially if we dont get late day convection. Wind ix not large but long days, high evapotranspiration and no rain are a concern imo, for. drought ion we cant get some decent rainfall in the next week or two.

Umm….yeah we’d be done with that scenario .

That's kind of been the H5 pattern this Summer though, atmosphere leading. Now it does run forward (consistency of the NAO/AO) at a 0.2-3 correlation, but something to look at is the relative SSTAs in comparison to the pattern.. if it runs warmer, that means there is probably warm subsurface fueling the stream and cold season +NAO chances would be heightened, because that kind of thing is harder to shut down, it's more of a macro happening.

Smoke worse today? Can’t even see sun through it. Edit: might be some clouds out there.

Yep, if you look back at the falls which preceded winters that featured very strong +NAO, that’s the SST alignment you will see. And if this continues into cold season, with the warm waters over by Iceland and Europe, and the cold south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, you can see exactly where the jet stream and very fast, zonal flow will be….right along that gradient of cold/warm waters

That EPS pattern is not one to get a cane up here. Ridge is too far east over the plains and you need a deeper trough a little bit further west than where the mean is showing it right now. Probably better for florida or the southeast.

I haven't checked my index, but it's probably very positive.. that looks like close to +0.75 in that map (DJFM NAO). The cold over the southern Davis Strait and south of Greenland is a big part of it.

Japan might have enough of a linear trend to have been effected by a shifting of currents, but I don't think the SE ridge is. It's still hard to say, because the Pacific is still such an extreme ocean. If we were in +PDO and the Gulf of Alaska and West coast was really warm, you would probably be pointing that out as the "global shift". I think that all you are doing is pointing out the underlining warming.

@Stormchaserchuck1 This is probably the most +NAO SST alignment I’ve seen in a long time. The cold SSTs from around/south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has preceded winters that saw predominate strong to very +NAOs and very fast, zonal flow in the Atlantic