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  2. I just checked the 09z/31 HRRR and it doesn't forecast 45+ MPH for our area today except ridges/water. Maintain NWS messaging. I do think there will be a few gusts 40-44kt (46MPH+) so the conservative guidance is that... I can live with the 00z/31 SPC HREF MIN gust tool and the EPS MAX Gust tool.
  3. Wind kicked in around 3:30 am. Should be strongest from say noon to 4 pm - probably a lot of gusts close to or at 50 given the winds aloft and forcing.
  4. None of those storm drains in Brooklyn where the worst flooding occurred were built to handle 1.00” of rain in only 15 minutes. While the spots that got over 2” yesterday wasn’t their heaviest daily rainfall event in recent years, 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes is probably close to the all-time records for the individual spots in an around Crown Heights. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO1727/table/2025-10-30/2025-10-30/daily 2:54 PM 60.0 °F 59.6 °F 99 % SW 4.4 mph 11.3 mph 29.66 in 0.24 in 1.19 in 0 5w/m² 2:59 PM 60.3 °F 59.9 °F 99 % SW 3.6 mph 8.3 mph 29.65 in 1.44 in 1.41 in 0 9.6w/m² 3:04 PM 60.3 °F 60.0 °F 99 % SSW 5.3 mph 10.1 mph 29.66 in 3.78 in 1.84 in 0 11.8w/m² 3:09 PM 60.3 °F 59.9 °F 99 % SSE 3.7 mph 8.9 mph 29.65 in 4.44 in 2.16 in 0
  5. KEEN measures .44 inches overnight. Looks to be about done here. Halloween parade on Main Street this evening will be high and dry! My roommate and I are going as Tweedledee and Tweedledum. If we get a third...Tweedledummer. A fourth? Tweedledummest! Ha.
  6. I'd mark this down as another win for some of the AI models as well. They not only guessed the track better when models like the GFS, ICON and UKMET failed spectacularly but they also guessed the insane low pressure below 900mb which many didn't believe it would get to. So glad we finally have something else to use because the GFS has just been a mess the past 5 years. But really this was one of the hardest forecasts we've had in a while but the AI models really nailed it despite the fact.
  7. Yes, Nobody cares much about rain…but 3-4” in big areas was not forecasted at all.
  8. A lot of the models had that yesterday. But nobody cares about rain.
  9. The west got blasted…3-4” in large areas. Nobody saw that coming.
  10. Actually, a large chunk of the area got exactly what I said Days ago. Congrats on the Jack west of the river. I could care less About rain.
  11. Really!? We were just shy of 3 inches in Westfield
  12. Your forecast for the area as a whole, blew Rats. A large area busted very high. Take the loss like a man.
  13. I'll have a wrap up post around 930A inclusive of two day CoCoRaHs and one or two other graphics regarding predictability (the 1+"/ 30 min rainfall was not predictable in my opinion except short fuse warning).
  14. If a moderator can pin the new thread topic. Thank you. Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down
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