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The Euro is maybe a little better with the first wave than 12z so far. Nothing like the GFS with that Lee side low it pops and bombs us, at least not yet. Still rolling.

Best precip field won't be nailed 4+ days out in any storm.

A met in my sub had an idea:

The gfs showed the upside potential of this storm so no

NVM all of the other idiosyncrasies that are holding this back, I never like seeing a deer closer low over upstate Carolina.....nothing good comes from that for NE. Upside is a sloppy seconds, off of the tree, off of the car, off of the woodpecker's head, off of the neighbor's dong, nothing but net.-type of moderate event.

Looks like someone put a heavy caking of window spray snow on everything outside. Nice evening.

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general? And secondly...how unusual is this?

At this point, it’s just another solution.

0z Euro not bad. I believe it's 1-3", maybe 2-4"? Edit: south of DC is jackzone, about 3-6" there. DC gets around 1-3", Baltimore C-1". Subject to change as this is based purely off temps and precipitation maps

Did it pull an icon or something? As long as h5 looks good we can all take a long shower so it has some moisture to work with.

Regarding the moisture issue: Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area (2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (3) is a kick in the pants.

But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol

nice change

Yea, night and day

this somehow produces like 3-6” of snow. how do you even make this up

hell i'll even say 0z euro is better than the 0z GFS at h5

And I’m explaining to you that there was no lack of precip today.

0z Euro h5 looks very similar to 0z GFS

The Bears are this season's Commanders. They'll inevitably get obliterated in the NFCCG at the latest. But I hope fans enjoy the rush while it lasts!

Should snow this run but it’s not gonna bomb.

Euro isnt bad for Eastern areas

Maybe it’s better that it’s not a full blown monster just yet….there’s many days to go, don’t want it getting crazy just yet. Let’s trend it slowly but surely over the next 2-3 days.

Thru 234hrs. Both "threats"

That is how I'd hedge....EURO AI was doing that, too.

0z Euro looks much better than 18z. At hour 99 the trough is SW and is deeper