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I think it will also cause more political unrest and more conflict too. There's a strong correlation between hotter weather and more violence.

I agree. Covid did a lot to muddy the underlying climate driven trend —appeal to move to warmer regions with shorter cold/flu season and less restrictions —but it’s becoming more apparent with that shock behind us.

Incredibly sad to hear this. Thank you for sharing.

Ya it's coming I thought it would of started earlier but looks to start soon.. we refresh

It seems to be delayed, but it has to happen eventually? Maybe a modified version of one?

It's why we need geoengineering John. Blue Green Algae are/were the greatest geoengineers of all time and without them none of us would be here today.

Oh no, that’s sad to hear. Thank you for sharing the news.

Unless you live in Tamaqua...lol

we're already seeing those mass migrations now, it's already happening

Yes, the key word is *gradual* and it's not just our need to adapt but the need for the entire food chain to adapt too. We have had both a hot house Earth and an ice ball Earth in the past but the changes always took place over millions of years.

No threads yet on the following: Fairly widespread SVR late Fri. Spot 5" totals 18z Fri-06z Mon, inclusive of several short duration FF events, primarily Sunday. This may include embedded iso svr. Last chance for 100F this year Newark-NYC seems like this Friday but above normal mean of 90+ occurrences at hand for KEWR as 90+ reoccurs Saturday and Tuesday July 29. Tuesday: nw flow svr event. August: seasonable variability again as per July with a cooler than normal first week, then seemingly wetter and warmer than normal last 3 weeks of Aug as the w Atlantic ridge builds in response to the strong 5H heat ridge near the Rockies, possibly edging west toward the end of the month. Support from 00z/22 GEFS qpf through 700+ hours as seen on Pivotal and spot check of ECMWF INT and the July 17 CPC 1 month outlook. This suggests to me probably no more 100 at KEWR but plenty of 90-95 after the first week of August. Will check in tomorrow

The mid-latitude marine heatwaves being driven by the 500 mb ridge expansion have been preventing a shift to -AMO.

I wonder how well this is verifying as the paper is from 2013. Note how Indonesia was supposed to hit the tipping point by 2020. Have they?

We saw this last year near the peak of tropical season too, it makes me think we are evolving towards a -AMO

LWX in their early morning AFD seems potentially excited about severe potential into next week. SPC also has a good discussion on their D4-8 outlook. We'll have no clarity on details until closer to next week - but bears watching.

^Still looks like an h5 ridge develops in the central/western US in the LR, so it is debatable how much heat returns even after the cool shot associated with the digging eastern Canada trough lifts out.

The ranges are HUGE as well - there is a BIG difference between 2C and 4C of temperature change up or down. I mean the last glacial maximum was only about 5-6C colder than preindustrial. Using 2025 at the baseline, it was 2C+ cooler just a few hundreds of years ago. So I'm pretty sure we could weather 2C of gradual cooling with no major repercussions. The earth has experienced such conditions within the past millennium. On the other hand, 4C of cooling would no doubt see substantial glacial advances, dropping sea levels, etc, but it's still well within the climate conditions faced by homo sapiens during their time on earth. An additional 2-4C of warming would result in climate conditions not seen on earth in tens of millions of years.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest model trends continue to point toward the potential for several rounds of t-storms over the last weekend of July. An active convective training setup on the northern periphery of the upper ridge may result in repeat or training MCS/MCV storm clusters capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and perhaps carrying a strong to severe t-storm threat. WPC has included the entire area in the D4 MRGL/level 1 excessive rain risk for Saturday. The timing and placement of precip is more uncertain for Sunday with best signal over eastern/northeastern PA.

North of the LIE probably gets to 95 before the seabreeze unless it’s like 20-30mph and all day. South near where you probably gets over 90 but it’s more dependent on when the seabreeze takes over, and with water temps well in the 70s it won’t bring much relief only more humidity.

Haha, I've sometimes called myself a skeptic in that sense (i.e., that it will be worse than let on). Turns out fossil fuel companies have much larger budgets than doomers!

Regarding the poll — Short term 2-4C increase is worse because most of the world’s population already lives in areas that are very warm and on the coast. This will ultimately cause population flows from these areas and tremendous economic costs. Long term 2-4C is better because it opens up more of the earth’s resources to mining and agriculture.

2047...I actually expected a sooner date....I think Bluewave's model had yesterday.

You can tell that the expected range of outcomes is -4C to 4C…. I find it interesting that the counter- mainstream thought on this subject is that it’s not happening or it’s benign, but never that the warming will be much greater than consensus (2-4C). Moreover, this is the outcome with best odds based on the present trajectory.

That is a grid resolution issue so don’t take those 80s to 90s lines near the coast literally. Most spots like JFK will probably top out in the 90s before the sea breeze kicks in. Could be 20-30 mph southerly gusts by 2-5 pm.

it's not bad, it did clear out for awhile late yesterday (after 4 pm here). I wouldn't say it's mostly cloudy, maybe like 30 percent clouds lol