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Based on model consensus suggesting higher than normal pressures at Tahiti likely dominating the 7 days or so, I don’t think the consistently strong -SOI dailies will return at least until early Sept.

I was in the spa on Friday night, and my sister asked me why the spa doesn't stay consistently hot. It was at that moment that my understanding of the el nino/la nina cycle truly clicked. My answer was that it requires an extra amount of energy to maintain that heat. The same way that it requires extra heat to maintain an el nino. It was at that point that I realized why an el nino doesn't last, and ENSO neutrals/la ninas are more natural, lasting states. Then, she said that at hotels (where spas are maintained at continuous heat), there is a warning that you should not stay more than 15 minutes. It was at that point that I realized that if the earth was in a continuous el nino state, it would not really be habitable. (Like you'd have to leave the continuous warm spa after 15 minutes, you'd have to leave continuous earth to cool off after a certain period of time.)

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?

for sure, TARP system still chewing through all the wastewater from the previous wet period and we're probably good on rain heading into the drier fall season the weather this time of year has been consistently wonderful, we're blessed

Oh god, I'm gonna catch some bun blow back for this... but in 1995, we started getting hints and starts of -NAOs in late August, that more and then less continued into the autumn ...only to finally dominate from early November on. We started getting a local SE/Can to NE gradient look as the flow was carving a trough around the -NAO bias that month... Mixy snow and sleet to 2" remained in patches dappled about the UML commons by Veterans Day, and never actually completely disappeared before it was covered over by a more substantial snow mid month... Didn't see bare ground again until the mega thaw in late mid Jan - lost a 30 inch pack down to field ponds floating confused ducks. Winter made a decent comeback in Feb, but it wasn't as good. That's not likely happening this year and isn't intended as an analog - setting the table for making a point here. digressing.. anyway, the point of this was going to be that sometimes seasonal biases have roots in the immediate preceding season. Like you start seeing the biases early, albeit too subtle to perhaps notice the preponderance setting in. Until it becomes factored, sort of unknowable... Similar subject matter, active winters with coastal frequency/events, tend to see a autumn couple of coastals ... - the table sets while no one's looking. I'm only bringing it up because there's a significant correlation between warm ENSO's and the negative NAO mode - east vs west, notwithstanding. This is particularly true/more so in Jan/Feb. But I dunno ... if this thing does do the super duper phat dope badass whatever, maybe the dominating statistic punches thru earlier?

North Atlantic close to the all-time warmest set back in 2023.

warm and rainy

hello

Nice crisp morning in the 50s here today ARR got down to 51 Rochelle 48!

I like the MEI for coupling...I use the RONI more to gage how much MC influence there may be as a result of SST thermal distribution, but kind of related...

A lil boredom never hurt. Personally I like these lulls. Makes you appreciate the action even more when it arrives. imo wall-wall action would get boring quick. Balance …. Just for perspective Chicago’s record for consecutive days with measurable precipitation is 11 days. 1880, 1949

Yes. For record keeping purposes I will use absolute ONI however since that is always consistent with the 30 year mean, and RONI is too inconsistent in how it’s calculated between agencies and organizations. For atmospheric coupling purposes I will use RONI. 23-24 and 26-27 will likely get adjusted downward anyway until they become centered on their 30 year climate period.

59.7 for the low and 5.33 for the month

A daily peak of +3.3 on OISST seems reasonable to me as it would be consistent with a monthly peak of +3.0 and a trimonthly peak of +2.8. The dailies could even peak near +3.5 for that matter and still be consistent based on the volatility of the dailies.

another missed ridge

Climate dashboard is still going with a +3.3 RONI peak. This would be a daily peak and not trimonthly.

Tri.

Low of 59 with .13” of rain. Mondays stink.

Weekly update SST:

Yea, that fits...we've avoided the big heat, but def. not fall like.

Records: Highs: EWR: 95 (1947) NYC: 94 (1972) LGA: 93 (2020) JFK: 94 (1995) Lows: EWR: 52 (1940) NYC: 52 (1890) LGA: 55 (1971) JFK: 55 (1962) Historical: 1785: A hurricane ravaged the area from St. Croix, Virgin Islands to Cuba during the last week of August beginning on this date. Over 142 people were reported dead from storm's impact. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1814: The British army invaded Washington and set fire to the city on August 24th. The next day a line of severe thunderstorms spawned a tornado in Washington that killed several British solders and caused significant damage to the city. The heavy rainfall associated with the storm helped extinguish the fires that were burning throughout Washington. (p.31 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1827: A powerful hurricane struck North Carolina. The storm caused the Diamond Shoals Lightship to break away from its anchorage and drift away. Two crew members were lost during the storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1893: A hurricane moved northeast of Puerto Rico, then moved north close to the New Jersey shore and into western Long Island, NY during the pre-dawn hours. Cape Henry, VA, measured a gust to 128 mph. Philadelphia, PA had a maximum 1-minute wind velocity of 55 mph. New York City recorded a daily rainfall record of 3.61 inches. This hurricane, still a Category 2 off New Jersey and washed away the Hog island. This storm retained its hurricane strength throughout its passage across New England, decreasing to tropical storm status over the mouth of the St Lawrence River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1906 - A cloudburst deluged Guinea, VA, with more than nine inches of rain in just forty minutes. (David Ludlum) 1910: An unusually strong dry cold front caused a considerable drop in temperature at Denver, CO. From 3 PM to Midnight the temperature fell from a high of 93° to a low of 40°. Sustained winds of 44 mph were reported during the late afternoon. The low of 40° set a daily record low and tied a record low for August. Cheyenne, WY dropped to 30°, their earliest freeze on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1936: This date was a real scorcher across the Central and Northern Plains. Sioux Falls hit 109°, tying their second highest temperature on record. The record is 110 °F that was set on June 21, 1988. In fact, three of the four hottest temperatures ever recorded in Sioux Falls occurred in 1936, which not coincidentally is the hottest summer on record across much of the Northern Plains. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1948: The following locations recorded their hottest August temperature: Mather, WI: 107° (also their hottest day on record), Mondovi, WI: 104°, Winona, MN: 103°, and Rochester, MN: 100°, also tying their hottest August temperature with several other dates: 8/3/1930, 8/4/1947, 8/15/1936, 8/23/1948. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1952: It was a record braking chilly morning across the Mid-Atlantic States. Layton, NJ dropped to 33° and Runyon, NJ fell to 37°. It came close to the states all-time record low for August that occurred at Layton & Charlottesburg on 8/25/1940 when they fell to 32°. Other daily record lows included: Elkins, WV: 40°-Tied, Binghamton, NY: 45°, Buffalo, NY: 47°, Allentown, PA: 47°, Wilmington, DE: 48°, Baltimore, MD: 48°, Huntington, WV: 48°-Tied, Harrisburg, PA: 49°-Tied, Richmond, VA: 50° and New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 59°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1968 - Lightning struck the Crawford County fairgrounds in northwest Pennsylvania killing two persons and injuring 72 others. (The Weather Channel) 1974: Central New Jersey--A brief lightning storm killed one person on the beach in Long Island Township. Maine--A line of thunderstorms developed across the southern part of the state. Severe lightning caused two deaths at Rockland. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1975: Lansdale, PA in Montgomery County received over 5 inches of rain in 2 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984: Southern Alaska: Remnants of Tropical Storm Holly bring heavy rains and snows to parts of southern Alaska. Four-foot snow drifts are reported at Denali National Park. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1987 - Autumn-like weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN with a low of 37 degrees. Temperatures in Florida soared to 98 degrees at Pensacola and 99 degrees at Jacksonville. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Southern High Plains Region, with 5.40 inches at Union NM, and 7.25 inches reported west of Anthony NM. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms in the Delaware Valley of eastern Pennsylvania produced wind gusts to 95 mph around Philadelphia, and gusts to 100 mph at Warminster. A tropical depression drenched the Cabo Rojo area of southwestern Puerto Rico with up to ten inches of rain. San Juan received 5.35 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Montana and western sections of the Dakotas. Thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Jordan, and golf ball size hail at Rock Springs, which collected three to four feet deep in ditches. Lewiston ID reported a record 1.50 inches of rain for the date, and a record rainfall total for August of 2.63 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Eastern North Dakota suffered severe hail damage from stones that were as big as 6 inches near Lisbon. Windows were smashed, cars heavily damaged, holes punched in roofs and 16,000 acres of crops were destroyed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1992 - Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Florida at 4:30 AM on this day. The high winds caused catastrophic damage in Florida, with Miami-Dade County cities of Florida City, Homestead, and Cutler Ridge receiving the brunt of the storm. About 63,000 homes were destroyed, and over 101,000 others were damaged. This storm left roughly 175,000 people homeless. As many as 1.4 million people were left without electricity at the height of the storm. In the Everglades, 70,000 acres (280 km2) of trees were knocked down. Additionally, rainfall in Florida was substantial, peaking at 13.98 in (355 mm) in western Miami-Dade County. About $25 billion in damage and 44 fatalities were reported in Florida. 2005: Tropical depression 12 would be named Tropical Storm "Katrina" during the morning. Katrina went on to become the costliest and one of the most deadly hurricanes to ever strike the U.S. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

72 / 61 trough and cut off ull lifting out and spinning over Upstae NY -so hope those mostly sunny forecasts verify but suspect some more clouds move ine / out today/ Near / slightly below normal thriugh Wed, then warm/humid but wetter Thu-Fri and hope the weekend hold at the current dry / warming look. Ridge building west and continental ridge rising heights in the east 8/31 - beyond for overall warmer look into labor day.

There is a strongish -PNA bounce in the 25 thru 2nd window but it doesn't seem to wanna manifest in the daily/operational synoptics out there along the 40th parallel. There's a positive anomaly in the non-hydrostats but it's pressed down by over-activate summer version of the polar jet... like this, ...This latitude heavy jet antic has been weighting down the heat, suppressing it back SW-S now for 2 weeks and counting. Persistence seems to beget persistence. Otherwise, deep summer ended earlier than normal. Ooa Aug 10 this year for the eastern Lakes/NE region. We've seen 96 up here thru the 10 of Sep but sufficed it is to say we are on the climate slope and/so heat's rarefying. But the 'deep summer ended' isn't meant to trigger ... it's a relative aspect. We can still register above normal temperatures, and not be a part or have potential of being a part of the show. If that -NAO anchored 50/50 aspect continues there ( western limb -NAO in summer, ugh!), we're going to be cooler than the TV ...while being warmer than normal by small amounts - this latter aspect just because CC seems to baseline us to guaranteeing at least decimals on the warm side relative everything.

Yeah felt like a month or so ahead of schedule here, lake effect rain and a consistent breeze all day.