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Yeah the PDO is an important feature in the grand scheme of things. I would advise against diminishing it's ability to modulating this event, as I have said before. How much and in what way is an intriguing question though given a record breaking el nino. See the above CPC text from @bluewave. "the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas" Ok, but how? Where? The following study goes into that a little bit: Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327 The main finding from this multi-model SMILE study is that a positive PDO acts to amplify El Niño and diminish La Niña teleconnections over North America, while a negative PDO has the opposite effect. we find that the largest modulation occurs for temperature over Alaska and Canada and precipitation over California. Our work builds on Dong et al (2018), who make similar conclusions, by focusing specifically on North America and demonstrating that these results are robust across multiple fully coupled climate models. While Dong et al (2018) forced their atmospheric model with fixed SST patterns for 50 years, we show that the amplification and diminishment of ENSO teleconnections by the PDO hold for a realistic model configuration where ENSO events occur with a variety of patterns, amplitudes, and durations. Atmospheric circulation anomalies are found to mediate the modulation of ENSO by the PDO. Specifically, Aleutian low and Pacific jet anomalies associated with an El Niño are enhanced by a positive PDO and weakened by a negative PDO. This result is consistent with the results of Dong and Dai (2015), who show that Pacific Decadal Variability (measured using the IPO) influences North America via the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. we find that the modulation of ENSO temperature and precipitation teleconnections over North America by the PDO can be described as a simple combination of the effect of the individual modes. This result agrees well with Rao et al (2019) who suggest a linear interference of the impacts of the two modes is likely.

The 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.65" yesterday to 1.72" this morning.

There are some smart people on this forum, how worried do we need to be about ai? It seems like the smartest people with the most experience with this stuff are the most worried and that’s usually not good.

Yeah it's been pouring hard here all night

I wonder how often/long that needs to stop on the way down to cool the brakes!

There’s enough ensemble members showing a decent hit unlike previous days. Still could jog east though so wouldn’t lock anything yet.

Wind will be less inland like usual, but it’s a multi-facet deal with heavy rain too. Possible coastal flooding as tides slowly get higher astronomically.

Min 40.9° September is a good time to get that storm track out of our system.

Just awful. Say goodbye to the sun for a week if this is correct.

Coasts or iinland too?

Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct.

Tries to make an appearance later this week and next weekend on the models.

I said keep an eye on it in subsequent posts.

.51” overnight Looks like Harrisburg area is going to get hit hard.

Interesting. Never thought about the rate.

Yeah, near record 588 dm block north of the Great Lakes is very impressive for late September.

The ensembles see something similiar although farther offshore and more of a stall then a hook until finally getting pushed east. One thing that is consistent is development of closed system in the region, sticking with the ensembles for now for guidance this far out. Enjoy the rainy sunday, you have a license to sit on the couch all day.

Now gfs hooks left with the coastal storm.

Gfs on board

Euro , Euro AI and now the GFS has storm that hooks into the coast.

Especially if the surface low gets captured by the upper low and gets pulled in from the east by later in the week. Several models have been showing these cyclonic loop scenarios. Still early for details like that but the blocking to the north and closed low are very strong for this time of year. So there is at least some potential.