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Yeah, we used to do many boat trips across the back bays in Nassau. There is plenty to see out there even if you don’t fish. We used to enjoy getting a better look at bay houses than you can see from the parkways. It’s a whole new world to explore out on the water.

2019 all over again 2014 all over again

The Dec/Jan cold snap set an interesting record at Detroit for cold longevity. Dec 26, 2017 thru Jan 6, 2018 was the longest stretch on record (12 days) where Detroit did not exceed 19F.

We are about to embark on a historic deep deep summer run for a long time. Cane included . Buckle up folks

What a summer for Long Island sound water temperatures...

Fantasy time ... but how about the cat 5 in the lower Bahamas at the end of that.

It seems like I've read a few papers related to climate change enhancing the northern latitude forest growth around the hemisphere. Entering a CC-related dry bias extending several seasons ... --> wild fire frequency increases. Whom and/or what is lighting the proverbial match? If those are relatively constant while fuels increase... more fires. Climate change effects interior continental geography, differently, in time. For example, increased wet/growing seasons initially causing surplus carbon stows above land. Then, as climate changes furthers along creating extremes of drying vs wetting that can extend longer than single seasons and boom. Not very difficult to see where that's going... Suspiciously, this seems 'probably' to be a situation where the fuels were improving over time, while the triggers remain relatively constant. Pure speculation, but given to the known CC relationship with creating extended periods of unusual mid continental drying, there's some intuitive basis to the idea of 'creating firestorm' proneness.

Days and days. What a summer...

lfg!

Boy that is a summer run on the euro.

It's 89 degrees here but because the dewpoint is in the 50s it feels perfectly fine outside.

hmm i just think maybe it is something interesting to think about but what if we incorporate ai and machine learning with strictly in regards to sst and climate change itself not trying to say that we should replace everything with it but just have it as one of our tools in our arsenal

WB 12Z EPS for late in the weekend, wetter than 0Z. Note: great write up in the tropical thread on this by 007.

The magnitude of the heat and drought in Canada is much more extensive this time around as the climate continues to warm. Those past events you referenced were normal occurrences back in the colder and more stable climate of the past. What has been occurring in Canada since 2023 is a whole new ballgame. First, we had the historic 500mb ridge over Canada in May 2023 leading to the historic wildfire outbreak and record smoke pollution in places like NYC. This standing wave which drove the drought and fires was related to record warming in parts of the Pacific which helped to lock in the record heat and 500mb ridging in Canada from 2023 to the present. Second, the current global political system is not capable of dealing with all the cascading effects of this rapid warming. So the response will have to be more driven by informed individuals that can make their own personal decisions on how to respond to this new climate.

90 with a dewpoint of 56 here. 90 feels pretty good with the low humidity.

Some smoky and sneaky heat out there today..

The 12Z UKMET has Dexter eventually becoming a minimal 988 mb H on Thursday though that’s an outlier right now:TROPICAL STORM DEXTER ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 67.5WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042025LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 04.08.2025 0 35.0N 67.5W 1005 360000UTC 05.08.2025 12 36.3N 65.9W 1008 351200UTC 05.08.2025 24 37.8N 63.9W 1010 340000UTC 06.08.2025 36 39.2N 62.3W 1008 431200UTC 06.08.2025 48 39.5N 59.8W 1007 410000UTC 07.08.2025 60 40.3N 56.0W 1003 391200UTC 07.08.2025 72 41.2N 51.3W 993 540000UTC 08.08.2025 84 43.2N 46.2W 988 651200UTC 08.08.2025 96 45.0N 42.6W 985 480000UTC 09.08.2025 108 46.0N 36.8W 993 401200UTC 09.08.2025 120 47.2N 29.8W 999 360000UTC 10.08.2025 132 CEASED TRACKING

I understand. I’m just talking fires in general.

Sneaky warm day-just hit 90.

You are looking at the global temperature jump in linear terms. First, what seems like a small rise in average global temperatures has much more amplified effects regionally. Second, SSTs in some tropical and even subtropical zones areas can cross a threshold where a nonlinear shift occurs. Resulting in standing waves that remain stationary for extended periods leading to very high local to regional warm departures. Unfortunately, there isn’t a guide we can consult which has a set SST level at which the changes will occur. As the climate is warming faster than our modeling technology can keep up with. So many of these shifts are only realized after the fact.

88 with 61 dew point What fantastic summer weather

The models have dried for Wednesday and Thursday and Sterling has went wetter for Staunton. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-79.05445863492788&lat=38.16380555335593

Please do Will. I always look forward to your Updates!!

yeah let it rip...

Milky sky and hazy visibility with the smoke No smoke odor