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There is some hint of destabilization later today in guidance, and it wouldn't take much with these wind fields, so I don't think we're totally dead. That said, the models have a lousy handle on the ongoing convection, so the idea that we may be too stable is valid.

Sounds like Tornado Watch coming per MCD

Nah I’m pumped for the convection 200 miles away. I can’t stay away from the screen.

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (1993) NYC: 95 (1929) LGA: 95 (1994) JFK: 94 (1962) Lows: EWR: 49 (1950) NYC: 48 (1950) LGA: 49 (1950) JFK: 53 (1959) Historical: 1835: A tornado moved southeast across west central Illinois, touching down midway between Canton and Fairview. Farms were destroyed before the tornado moved across Canton, where 50 buildings were damaged or destroyed. The tornado killed 8 people, including the founder of Canton and his son.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum) 1939: Anoka Tornado Takes Nine Lives; 250 Homes Ruined. The tornado struck with sudden fury at 3:28 p. m. Moving from the southwest to northeast, the towering, black, funnel-shaped cloud first struck near Corcoran, a small village a few miles southwest of Anoka. It hit a car in which four Minneapolis persons were riding, tossed it 200 yards into a field, killing several of the occupants. A local newspaper reported some chickens were stripped of many of their feathers during the tornado. (Ref. See the Image of the Chicken) (Ref. Anoka Tornado Stories) 1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel) 1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico. 1972: Hurricane Agnes moved northward through the Gulf of Mexico at 10 to 15 mph about 200 miles off the west coast of Florida. It was well west of Ft. Myers at 2000 on the 18th and passed west of Tampa near 0600z on the 19th and made landfall in the Panhandle near Cape San Blas in the afternoon. Gale force winds were felt throughout the state, but no hurricane force winds were reported. Agnes spawned the worst tropical cyclone severe weather outbreak in Florida history on this date and the 19th when the outer rainbands produced tornadoes and severe thunderstorms over the peninsula. Almost two dozen tornadoes and windstorms were reported from the Keys to Cape Canaveral. Six people were killed and 40 injured in Okeechobee when a series of windstorms, that may have been tornadoes, destroyed mobile homes at 2255z on the 18th. The highest tides in many years along the west coast destroyed homes and businesses, washed away roads and cut off access to many offshore islands. There was severe beach erosion. Damage estimates total $5 million dollars to public property and $36 million dollars to private property. One person drowned on the west coast and another death was attributed to a storm-related fatal heart attack. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History 1973: The latest significant snow (2 inches or more) on record for the Black Hills in South Dakota occurred on this date when portion of the Hills received up to 8 inches. 1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Atlanta, GA recorded a new record for the amount of rainfall in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 pm and 7:52 pm EDT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: In west central Kansas, heavy rain caused roads in the Syracuse area to flood. As much as one foot of water covered some roads for a short period of time. In Greeley County, golf ball size hail, driven by thunderstorm winds, damaged wheat and broke windows along a four mile path from five miles south of Astor to nine miles south of Astor. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Over 6 inches of rain fell at Columbia, MS in a three hour period and 8.25 inches fell in a 24 hour period. Water entered thirty businesses in Columbia, with 12 of the businesses suffering major damage. Eight homes also suffered flood damage. Many roads were washed out and had to be closed. Numerous cars were under water. This event caused $15 million dollars in property damages. Several roads were also flooded across the south half of Forrest County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Record morning chill occurred across the Appalachians. Record lows for the date included: , Elkins, WV: 39 °F, Pittsburgh, PA: 43 °F, Bluefield, WV: 46 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

For sure. Weird seeing positive trends for once

We are in the 3rd flash flood watch since last Friday. The first 2 provided 1.43" but flow on the local 4th-order watercourse (Sandy River) has barely stayed above the 25th percentile. The initial watch verified in a small area around Conway NH with reports of 3-5" and quick flooding, while 99%+ had a nice drink.

Hello little skinny line.

I suggest you log off and enjoy the New England gray overhead these next 10 hours.

why is snowman 5 posted? i dont see how busted warm calls are any different than metfan’s busted april snow maps. Are people that sensitive they can’t handle someone making warm forecasts?

77 / 68 clouds. Pending on clearing most places will be topped out at mid - upper 80s, enough breaks in the clouds will get the warm areas to 90s. Fri - Sun looks great near normal / dry - great weekend upcoming. Monday the next shot at some >05 and maybe 1.00 of rain with storms etc. Trough into northeast generally 6/20 - 6/27 and near / below normal during the period. Beyond there warmer to close the month / open next , with next chance of heat.

Hopefully, the EPS is correct about the wetter pattern for late June. Coincides with the cooler pattern and a deeper trough in the forecast. Very long range forecasts are trying to bring back the warmth for early July. So we need to get some rains before more potential drying warmth.

Pouring the rain here in Cherokee.

How many cattle will be thrown into the air in Vermont?

yes

HRRR gone wild up north.

Heavy downpour! Short range models stunk this am. Approaching .20 with more to come.

Moderate rain this morning in the Valley.

Current temp of 71 is the low, to go along with .03" of rainfall. Hopefully we can squeeze a little more out of the day, although there doesn't seem to be much support for it.

Short lived but yeah. Some good bursts of convection still going down there. Yeah, that line looks solid right now. The line looks pretty damn robust on the 12z HRRR in NNE.

If that. That’s all we get these days. My last two “rain” events have been 0.03 and 0.02.

Already closing in on 0.70” this morning. This looks interesting this afternoon.

That 34" dump came at Oak Ridge Reservoir, about 10 miles west from where I grew up. In January that site's pack reached 41", the only time I've seen for NJ pack >36" except for Feb 1961 when Oak Ridge had 50" and 15 miles farther NW, Canistear Reservoir topped out at 52". We probably had 45" after the 3-4 blizzard that year. A friend and I decided to wade thru the pack and it was navel-deep on me (was 5'7 or 8" at the time) and my boots ;likely didn't get within 6" of the ground. The 35" record was set at the state's least snowy site, Cape May, in the Feb 1899 cold blast and storm. Even Tallahassee had 2". Initial reporting from Mt. Arlington (western Morris County) had 35.5" from the 2021 Jan-Feb dump, but QC follow-up lowered that to under 30".

Hopefully more nice, safe rains later like this morning

In the Midwest it was, indeed, quite mild. But in the NE, it averaged only moderately AN with Dec AN but Jan-Feb pretty close to normal. Jan actually was slightly BN in some cases like at NYC. In the SE, only Dec was a mild month. Jan was slightly to moderately BN and Feb was not too far from normal. Thus DJF averaged only slightly AN to NN in the SE. SE example for DJF Asheville: 43.6, 35.2, 39.8 Jan was 35.2/BN with 8.5” of SN (double the normal) from two ~4” snowstorms. The coldest was 7F. Knoxville was similar. Savannah also had a BN Jan.

Is that from that faux tropical storm?