All Activity

Drier air is also filtering in this afternoon as the front clears us

That cell that moved thru was a gully washer by you around 9:30. I just got clipped by it. Total of 1.48 in the Davis for yesterday here.

Hopefully they are right. I will take my chances with an active stj.

not for rain .......

1978 blizz hands down even though the snow amounts were nothing crazy here in mby, the wind and the rapid temp drop made that storm one for the ages. That was basically a cat3 hurricane over land. But what i would find fascinating is to see how the current day models would have handled that storm. How far out they would have begun to see it and when the severity/phasing aspect would have been latched onto. You look at a model like the ukie that loves to forecast phased bombs into the lakes....can't imagine what some of the outputs would have looked like lol.

Very little activity today too. Probably 90% of the area will stay dry.

Do you track things like month-to-date and year-to-date?

It's a couple hundreths of an inch at best

0.34" last night, 0.76" on the month. Funny how quickly things turn. lawn was real nice in June. Not so much now. With our annual BBQ party and band this wknd, nobody should be walking around in bare feet.

.27"

grazed. did the chickens enjoy the distant thunder and sprinkle?

For all but Guilford county perhaps

The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.

Do you guys think those showers make it to the city?

I’m calling the formation of Bertha as another MJO phase 8 related pattern recognition win for Joe Bastardi in addition to Arthur.

73/66F Well there goes that. After another shower last night the grand total from this system looks to end at .36". The showers and storms forming are south and east of my location. Unless something happens to the west it looks like this is it. Thoughts Brian? Hope to make 1" for August!

Nah I’m just building up resistance now

The band of rain set up south of my area. Looks like 3-5 inches around that area and less than .5 here. Not too upset by that, too much rain here already lately.

You have been great to provide these last two discussions to me

There's a cure

Ankle deep water. If SUCKDD

Lol f off

Looks like we pour here soon.. but meh overall

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...CENTER OF BERTHA WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 88.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has changed very little from the previous advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the next few hours. Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today, but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance. The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but Bertha could have dissipated by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 29.8N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 29.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 24/0000Z 29.4N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Yeah it is nice to have no AC running.