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ICON hits from Eastern Rim and points east, especially north of 40, on the 15th. Another round headed for Western areas by the 16th or so, with snow breaking out in Arkansas.

last time we had a big storm possibility the GFS scored a coup against all the other models... including the stubborn Euro.

If the gfs or euro showed at 500 what the icon is showing, the sfc would look better guaranteed.

1) People love the dopamine 2) Absolutely nothing comes easy around here. When low probability is the default, your hopes change. The 2010s are not walking through the door.

The 3km NAM looks convective tomorrow afternoon, works in nearly 100j/kg of surface cape and some mixed layer as well, maybe enough for some isolated lightning strikes as the trough axis swings through. Next weekend is certainly interesting. One thing that gives me caution is the GFS verification scores have not been great lately. That said I'll be down in Georgia next weekend so you can pretty much take a snowstorm to the bank- I missed the November one down there too.

GFS is going to end up winning this one. Rare that it happens. But it is going to this time.

WB 0Z Icon misses....but nice move SW with the upper low compared to 18Z.

Ya let’s get euro to show that h5 and we good. Icon is just the icon

Much less interaction from ulll in northeast Canada

Icon doing what Icon do….whatever

Bust ass game anyway

who's ready for their 0.2" of rain based off this h5

Its the icon.

It's a total whiff but very intriguing aloft

The last real concrete i remember here was early January 2024. It snowed pretty hard for hours and we got like 2 inches of snow. lol. It was 33F or 34F the whole time.

jk - but man it looks nice. TPV might run just interference to not have this be awesome. But really… cmon.

wtf is the ICON? it looks perfect, it tilts negative, and instead of BOOM it sucks...?

H5 to far south? Hard for me to see that and it not boom…

If this look on the ICON does nothing it’ll probably never snow in the mid-Atlantic again

Well, everyone SHOULD know that... it's just his damn delivery. Took lessons from Rorch or something

It could snow or it could blow, we just don't know?

See my above post. Theres been great discussion over the last week about why this period is pretty low probability, but you see a big solution and people go wild. There are real issues with the setup, I don’t think that’s controversial

Oh baby. It's really trying.

Beat me to it…looks good