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Picked up another 0.62” to bring the daily total to 2.33”. This now brings the MTD to 8.90”. Looks like maybe another round later tonight too?

did you guys see this? legitimately insane: This is like Charlotte or Atlanta having a low of 80F in January lol. Seems like it's indirectly tied to the developing Niño - apparently related to some insane snowfall in the Andes (because of the juiced-up Pacific) leading to downsloping winds into Argentina, which caused this.

I've had 5 power outages last month, including one this evening. I truly hope there's not another one tomorrow.

I’m not certain that we will.

SPC issued MDTs on back to back days with Ivan. The first day over the southeast somewhat busted, as too much cloud cover limited instability. On the second day, we did eventually get a MDT into parts of northern VA, but the threat was not obvious until it evolved in real time. This was the initial outlook of the day. The area with a 5% got a SLGT. (The probabilities ramped up starting with the 1630Z outlook.)

yeah it's not a widespread event-it's hit or miss for most of us

Bertha has been beautiful, and fun. I was awakened at 3:11 AM on the 17th to a lightning show and rumbling boom and rumble thunder. It was intense and still an hour before a drop of rain fell on my house. All day Friday we had periods of rain and breeze from the mid-level swirl, lots of lightning. I wonder if the Sahara Dust that had been in our sky helped make circuits for Earth's static charge releases! One person told me they never experienced lightning like that here in Florida. And we are sometimes considered the "Lightning Capital" of the world. Yesterday the breeze got stronger, and a few TD bands came through. Today was about the air moving in the big swirl, respectable winds that were steady and the sky just kept moving by. It felt so good to be out in it. Three and half inches of rain since the initial 3 AM storm party on Friday. It's not a drought breaker by itself, but sure helps. Tonight the trees look full and happy for the first time since 2024 (Debbie, Helene, and Milton), and I see them twisting and dancing to the wind which I imagine helps them suck up rain from the ground and push into their limbs and leaves. We need these tropical systems every year to maintain ground water in Florida. Last year we had no tropical systems in the Gulf. Remember: Bertha is drifting away from us in the Tampa Bay area, but what a welcome and desperately needed system to come by and visit. Whew. Its possible next week everything will be wilting again crying for rain. Storm damage in my yard? Yes, a dead rotten Live Oak branch fell on my Key West Lime tree breaking it off at the base. The branch I had not noticed hanging in the tree was a thudnest*. I heard it thud when it hit the ground in the rain yesterday. While it was still raining several species of birds appeared to have a feast on what I suspect were ants who had a nest in the branch. It was not the wind that brought the branch down, it was the weight of the rain and the thudnest was like a sponge soaking it up. *Thudnest – A heavy dead limb filled with insect nests.

The top laugh on their epstein islands as the 99% battle each other over trans people, gulf of mexico, and reflecting pools…

Incredible lightning and very loud thunder here tonight. Had at least a dozen close strikes even before the rains hit. Picked up .53".

I am counting down the days till November 2028..

Batten down the hatches in TRI tomorrow night and Weds AM along with SE KY, SW VA, and the Plateau. MRX has been on top of it today. Severe threat is real. Slight risk of tornadoes with possible strong, straight line winds. 70mph gusts are being mentioned. I do not want to lose power in this heat. Right now it is 80 degrees at TRI at 10:00PM. Heavy rain is also possible. Could extend into the Central Valley.

Sign me up for the 00Z HRRR.

Man you can script a precip minimum better than that.

it’ll likely get switched back at some point after the balance of power flips aisles. Unless there is a coup de etat and the last of the constitution is at last cindered … otherwise most historically reliable social dynamic metrics are heavily leaning toward a pendulum swing. It’s not a big intuitive leap that when that happens, there will be sweeping referendums on a lot of the decisions that have been made in recency.

Widespread 80s on the coldest 7/20 of our lives

Holy beer

Blacked out so had to listen to the radio feed. One of the best games you’ll ever come across. Back and forth. 14 straight is crazy

Actually reminds me a bit of 7/12/23 in NE IL. What look like rain showers on radar spinning up little tornadoes seemingly at will. Salty because I targeted NE IA to SW WI and just drove in a big circle while seeing nothing as the storms moving into northern IA turned into a big blob except for the far west end, and from what I can tell even that wasn't that great. Got home about 2 hours ago. Based on forecast parameter space these things should have been Plains-caliber cyclic tornadic beasts. SPC MD has some good details on why this wasn't the case: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1682.html

That outbreak produced the one and only tornado I've ever seen. I was working at Dulles that day and very wisely ignored the "take shelter" commands issued via loud speaker. Instead I ran up onto the enclosed pedestrian bridge between terminal A and B just in time to watch the tornado drop near the main terminal.

You got your wish. :)

what a sounding

It sure is:

Come ON, Bertha. Get nice and strong. Get overloaded with tons of tropical moisture from the Gulf. Move nice and slow, lumber along then make a beautiful landfall in Texas then come to rest southwest of Buda, about 40 miles away. Then pull those graceful, water-laden rainbands right over Buda, enable me to enjoy torrential ultra-efficient rainfall to pile up inches in a very short time over ground that has really not had time to dry out. Take your time weakening, and if you can, please pretty please pull a Harvey on us in Texas right over Buda!!!!!!!! This is a wonderful place for you to visit Bertha, and you're welcome here! Come to papa...... I love El Nino with all my rain weenie heart!

lol nothing political about it, just like the "leftist" comment from damaged in trolland was 0% political the renaming was a political executive order issued for "reasons", and is only observed by certain executive agencies because they have been commanded to do so, and administration sycophants; the rest of us don't need to, and will not kowtow to, this blatantly political BS Americans get a chance to fix this "Gulf of America" BS in 2.5 years

Feels like we really blew our wad on last winter for the Pittsburgh people here. This region/thread is dead for the other 3 seasons