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Increased precip in PA also.. hopefully we can increase with 18z and 0z today

37° here with snow still clinging to the trees.

i'm looking at March 13th to March 18th for an overrunning big system that could produce a heavy snowstorm!

@The 4 Seasonsmade a math mistake ytd 77.6 with .5 yesterday

That was HM’s big key years ago when he was still a member of these forums. He harped on the fact that you absolutely need decent west-based -NAO and -AO blocking in mid-late March to get I-95 corridor KU (snowstorm) events….

Or trough positioned correctly with a direct tap to cold air (-WPO, -EPO). Not talking KU just accumulating snow.

Maybe over a week above freezing there?

Will watch this tomorrow

2 major series of accidents on 395 yesterday this morning coincided with road temps

I'm not home but sattelite is comical with the clouds trapped in the valley while everyone else is starting to tan the nape.

Gfs is definitely interesting into SNH into NE MA

Supported

Goofus is frigid....basically a warning snow event for BOS after some sleet. Gets ZR into most of CT

Congrats Ray on gfs. Even tries to dump near BOS

Days and days

The NAO/AO will be the key whether we get anything-we almost have to have those in late winter

One day of heavy fog is really neat. Whole world looks different. Two days, ok, getting boring. Three or more, let me out.

Sell 4 days of 60’s

Yeah this won’t be a road issue south of 90. With 40’s today , near 40 tomorrow and near 30 tonight roads won’t be cold . Will be a tree issue and cold surface event. Hopefully more scenes like this in my street this morning .

I kinda feel like features are over amplifying in the daily guidance' for that range. But like you...unsure. I have objective reasons for thinking that though. 1 the models tend to be over amplification, always, in the D7 to ... Nth range. It's matter of how much, be it 44 or 4% but there seems to always be a time-dependent tax paid by the time whatever is being monitored is D5 <-- 2 can you think of a better month to f* up amplitude prospects in guidance (anyway), than a month where guidance' handling of ginormous +d(solar), and it's modulation impact, is suspect in perpetuity? Typically forced neutering of the patterns is more of an April phenomenon.. but there's likely to be some of that in March, particularly nearing and beyond the equinox. seems adding up those two inference techniques should constrain one's ideas - unless your IneedOlanzapine, who sees a blue contour over Baffin Island and throws a emoji at us like we're supposed arrest all actions and tune right in.. 3 is more of a super synoptic observation. It seems this trough and move toward +PNAP mid month is setting up a dreaded compression type. Normally I'd say that's an H.A. look there around the 15-17th ... in fact I think I mentioned that a couple days ago if mem serves. Any, I just see that trough in the ens means as setting a elephant's ass down on a trampoline, where the heights are bursting out both ends... That's means there huge velocity, which as we know...is really a destructive interference in principle. But here's the thing ... if 1 and 2 are right above, that means the trough might actually correct back into a lower velocity, whereby S/W's can be conserved. So then we go the other way ... All and all? "unsure what mid month brings"

Verbatim, Colder? Yes. But an I-95 KU snowstorm pattern? I’m not so sure. Said it before, but come mid-late March, you want a stout west-based -NAO block/50-50 low and a stout -AO. You don’t have any of those….

Yesterday you were saying how very interesting it looked…damage you said…so now what changed for you?