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A thought. There is variability within the larger scale setup. So it’s possible to her a better setup in terms of the major long wave features but end up with a worse result due to minor factors causing a slower development or less amplification. However, if the larger scale trend of backing north the NS wave and the western ridge continues at some point a better outcome becomes much more likely regardless of the small scale variables. In other words get the whole thing to back another 150 miles and it would take a much less perfect progression to get a hit. Right now we could win but it would take damn near perfect phase and amplification which is what the runs showing a hit have. Keep improving the ridge/trough axis and even a less perfect result can end up good.

Which models qualify for folks? Just euro and gfs? Regionals inside reasonable range?

CMC shouldn't be as far west as that insane 12z run but hopefully still good

Man if I had a dollar for every time I said that the past 2 weeks I’d be living high on the hog!

GFS = Gillooly For Snow?

CMC prob about to do it....

Canadian should be good…

Tick tick tick tick. Steady as she goes. Right where you want it

so far 0z GGEM is mostly similar to 12z version that got us

Yeah, I'm a pc gamer lol

Cmc even further west with the troff axis at 102hrs. Coastal looks weaker so far.

Wind is howling tonight.

A baja low 3000miles away is too far away to talk about .

lol

Yep ICON and GFS agree Gg next

My back is shot from shoveling for 24 hours. I guess I will be stronger for this storm.

Looks like Jan 2018. That was also at nearly the exact same position at this time lead on most models. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-4-2018

This is funny….and also a bit insane. .

5"/hr or 5 PPD?

I like everything about the ggem at 90 except it’s weaker and slightly easy with the southern wave. But its more amplified and detached and west with the NS and as expected the western ridge continues to bleed slightly west every run.

i think this either cuts south of Tom's River or hugs the coast! either way fun times

Reminds me of Jan 4, 2018...hopefully it will close off later.

More than that. If it were physically possible to pull a Tonya Harding on an atmospheric feature to get more snow I would do it with no remorse

theyve started the thread

Went sledding/snow playing with my nephew. He was already out all day with friends then wanted to go sledding. Then I take him home and he wants to make an igloo out of the snowbank in the driveway. The kid could live in snow day and night. I have found @beavis1729 match!