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I have never seen this much agreement among the models for a big one like this one is showing.

It’s been the same here. It’s been going since 4:30 AM. 2.2”

Dusting 4 miles N of RDU.

Been snowing for a while here. It was.coing down pretty good a while ago. Looking like this is just an appetizer for the real deal next weekend.

So, the question was whether the AI systems retain info cycle to cycle. They're independent cycles. One word of caution for everyone who is excited to see so many hits in the AI ensembles: the AI ensembles are very underdispersive on the whole, and this will be an area of research going forward. I would therefore advise caution when they show high probabilities of an event, as they can show high confidence in the wrong outcome.

this is the pretty goodest winter of all time so far

Yes! Love it. Only words that start with F are acceptable to describe 18z. There’s only 2 though. No more no less.

Mulch is one of the coldest substances on earth, second only to the metal frame of a ski lift

Snowing here again, already picked up another 1/4". Previously cleared driveway is caving. Thankfully I salted the sidewalk, so that's holding firm.

Or 5's. I guess if someone who scored an inch can get's 4, they'll do it.

Radar has filled back in to the LSV within the last hour. Nothing is happening here yet, but I wonder if anyone can pick up another dusting in the next hour or so?

Temp has dropped to 32 (with dp 32) here and this latest round is now starting to dust the treated surfaces that were previously wet and the dripping has slowed. Currently fine-flake SN with some fog starting up.

Now to be clear, @stormtracker did not specify exactly which "F" word he'll use! So be careful!! Of course, FOLKS know which one we would like!!

End of the 18z ICON, which only goes out to Friday, was setting up for the weekend event it seems.

33 and coming down with more intensity here too in the last 15 mins. Getting some decent flake size.

No 6's or 7's anymore?

Steady light snow and cars being topped and mulch/grassy areas starting to whiten.

Radar has been slowly filling back in over Central and Western NJ. I’m expecting another 1-2” here but it hasn’t snowed here for several hours at this point.

Sorry ass 0.2” so far. Sorry ass 4.0” for the season.

Didn't know what to expect as the coastal gets going in Reading but radar is blossoming nicely. We have a steady light snow. The pixie dust kind with winds starting to pick up. Everything caved. Snow on snow on snow. With playoff football? This is why we are all here. Good times! Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

33.6 mod snow starting to stick

Looks legit!

Yep. Legit scenario. With the 1040+ hp over the top...that gives me a bit more hope than normal for snow. But.... Very concerned about ice w/ that scenario. Textbook ice setup, and models wouldn't catch that until it was under way IMHO. That high would keep funneling low level cold down the valley as rain goes over the top...and up the valley. Basically(and I know you know this...but kicking around the idea), the cold wraps clockwise around an incoming hp over the western Mid-West. Then, the cold hits the Apps and funnels south. The scenarios where we get snow...cold is right over the top. The scenarios w/ the warm nose...the cold lags. But with both scenarios...the cold eventually catches up. The Euro AIFS EPS was very bullish on snow w/ many members as snow. I am leaning towards cold winning the day, but am not sold on it. So, I definitely like hearing the other side of the coin.

The new BOX map gives me 1". lol