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That’s a beast of a HP, plenty of time for some north tics. That could be a nice SWFE. Don’t they tend to tic further north than modeled in the mid-range?

RAP and HRRR give my area a inch or so tonight.. hopefully those squalls hold

it might but doesn't look to last long

I don't make the decision, I just layout the options... and there was a very good one available...

Unclear what the differences are but here's my event log fwiw. Have pics of a lot of these- 25/26 70" 12/2 6.5" moderate pac s/w, cold air in place, retreating hp, primary near BM, but warm layer pushed far inland. SN->ZR/RN with fluff overnight 12/14 2" weak ocean storm / amplification moving offshore, cold temps. Small flakes fell all morning, bit of an IVT. 6-8" jackpot NYC/NJ 12/23 1" E Canada clipper to the south and west. Minor bust, late burst for White christmas 12/26 5" light. Another clipper focused CT/NY but a nice late burst/mesoband did us good. 1/1 2" beautiful fluff with weak N stream disturbance followed by arctic fropa 1/4 .5" light snows with weak, dry clipper 1/6 .5" more light northern stream action, 2-4" inches up north 1/7 .5" sleet, wet flakes. Followed by some rain. Net loss. 1/17 5" two part clipper, light overnight to dense and sticky. Overperformer 1/18 4.5" an inch dense as moisture streamed in, then 3.5" fluffy overnight mid-level magic from ocean storm 1/21 2" fluff. Surprise northern stream waa event over deep cold air. 4" in N CT/ ORH 1/25-26 22". 2 part HECS with true arctic airmass. Swfe on roids dropped 15" settled, small dense flakes, then 7" on day 2, pure downy fluff. 2/7 4". Northern stream s/w, arctic fropa hooking into distant ocean storm. Cold, high ratio fluff. Overperformed. Crushed NEMA, SECT. 2/10 .5". Northern stream convective blobs on a weak fropa. Bad sounding w/ warmish temps, dry air. Minor bust locally. 2/20 4" heavy. snow to sleet to snow on a swfe, redeveloper. 2/23 8" dense. All time blizzard. SEMA/RI jack. Fringed a bit. Windy, dry snow. 2/25 2" fluffy. Fairly vigorous, fast moving northern stream s/w. Widespread 1-3" in SNE

HERE

Euro time!

Gonna be congrats Chill by Saturday.

18z Euro remains unimpressed with this one.

Crazy, because I work in Ware and they have been pretty much similar to my backyard for every snowfall this year.

gfs ai precip, 3-5 most likely

To dumb it down for you; there's more yellow, orange, and reds than shades of blue across the globe.

CWG is going 1-3 inches

70 after today!

Well Scooter and Tip both guaranteed it’s coming so….

there are a lot of big hits in the individual members. and i think IAD gets at least 1" from all of them.

We’re on to the tenuous Tues/Wed period next week for next shot at wintry weather.

You can def get them late in the season Feb 28-Mar 1, 1995….had a lesser one but still decent on 3/2/07. And the below is from 3/23/24. Just two years ago in ORH. Most of that was midday too which is amazing that late.

The big storm for me last weekend was a lot of white rain. Like it or not, ground temps and sun angle matter this time of year. If the snow is a light snow during the day on Monday even with temps below freezing it will melt. Soil temps never fall below freezing on Monday. Have to factor that in.

We did mention this a couple days ago…

Yes…he played it right. You have him great advice, and he heeded it well.

Not scientific, but this feels like one of those years we get an April snowstorm. Who is starting the April thread?

if it does might be short lived

Im not so sure the torch is going to happen now

No I like highs in Arkansas