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I mean if that MJO forecast verifies, it will be a weird Pacific H5 for what the MJO is. Something to watch to see if that happens: MJO amped in 7-8 and a -PNA/+AO pattern

2020-21 is the only winter in NYC that even surpassed the 20-inch mark since 2018-19: 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T T 0.0 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9

CFS runs 4x a day, and sometimes it will have the whole US below at 12z then the whole US above at 18z. Running more helps tracking scores to improve for more data.. but 2-4 week models haven't proven much more accurate than seasonal models to this point. I personally like the 384hr map on the ensemble means, seeing what the NAO, PNA, AO patterns look like.. that is pretty accurate. There is a pretty big model drop off after Day 15. Maybe they will continue to upgrade the Euro ensembles, but they have had some big misses since coming into inception several years ago.

Weeklies should be run every week again instead of daily.

A better pattern still looks on track in December . MJO going into 8. Delayed but not denied ?

Remember how bad they were in 23-24? The 2-4 week period still has lot of work to do for more predictable models. There was a time in August when the weeklies had +5 around the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest for a 2-week period, and it ended up being like -5. Also, for all talk Strong Nino's get about having warm December's, you rarely hear about La Nina's and cold December's, but they do go hand-in-hand. But like I said a few days ago, when the -EPO ridge retrogrades and models want to significantly cool Alaska and NW Canada thereafter, that is a warmer pattern coming.

The sun finally is out there today! Enjoy as we may not see it too much after today until Turkey Day. Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and looks to continue for at least part of the day on Wednesday. We turn sunny and cold for Thanksgiving weekend with highs from Thursday through Saturday struggling to escape the 30's to near 40 degrees in most spots.

The sun finally is out there today! Enjoy as we may not see it too much after today until Turkey Day. Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and looks to continue for at least part of the day on Wednesday. We turn sunny and cold for Thanksgiving weekend with highs from Thursday through Saturday struggling to escape the 30's to near 40 degrees in most spots.

Yeah we've seen a big breakdown in what was going to be favorable for cold and snow. December is now looking quite mild for our area. Seems like the positive AO will link up with SER and keep us warmer than normal in December. That won't work for snowfall chances. Our best hope is that the cold and snow builds up to our west and north and cold can bleed down towards our area. But like I said yesterday, things don't look too active for much of CONUS for forseeable future.

Even better elsewhere, back when there were more official snowfall observations. Morgantown came in with nearly a foot. Northern Pennsylvania got clobbered. The daily reported snowfall on the 11th appears to have been so high at DuBois, it got automatically rejected by the automated rejection feature for suspect readings in xMacis. A review of the daily snowfalls and change in depth suggests over 2 feet fell, with depths peaking at 34" from the 12th through 14th. Bradford had a peak depth of 39 inches.

You are warmer than the majority of forecasts i have seen on other forums and social media ( hope you fail =) ). The epic December calls by many look like it will fail but a good December is still there. Need the mjo to get out of 7. Maybe we will have a snowy period around the holidays which would be nice.

What a disaster shaping up

Certainly, a great way to break a snowfall drought with nearly 10" of snow at the airport (looks like there may have been some mixing?).

Expect the hostile trend in the polar domain to continue for later in December.

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark

This morning revealed an unwelcome, GEFS AO forecast. If it holds, it could have implications beyond the first week of December. The base case is a generally negative AO at least to start December. But the GEFS has grown more aggressive with the AO+ scenario, with the AO reaching/exceeding +1.000 near the end of the first week in December. For now, things still remain on course for places like the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and central or northern New England in terms of cold an snow through at least the first 7-10 days of December. Severe cold still appears unlikely. The question afterward concerns whether the pattern will break down near mid-month or late December. The AO+ development would argue for a faster breakdown. I will need to see more data on this, but the risk of a faster breakdown has increased further since yesterday. Let's see where the GEFS and EPS are in a few days. After all, it is November 24 and model skill is weak beyond 10-14 days. What about the SSW? As @40/70 Benchmark@bluewave@snowman19 have noted on numerous occasions, it is likely to be a reflection event. The late November cold shot and first week of December developments likely have no connection to the SSW. Whether there would be the development/redevelopment or reinforcement of blocking was the wild card. Considering the nature of this event, it increasingly appears that non-stratospheric factors will play the predominant role.

I would expect about a mean of those 3 seasons...maybe add in 2005.

Interesting that ILN doesn't mention weekend snow chances at all in the afd, obviously looks unlikely, but not out of the question as the 6z euro and eps show. About 1/2 members of the 0z eps had some sort of snowfall saturday into sunday, I think with this complex of a pattern you can't rule it out.

You are in a way better spot than I am.

I know I am lol. Havent seen a fantasy run like that for my area in a loooong time for late Nov/early Dec

The color shift at -8 and not +8 which draws the attention to the colder anomalies. Color scales need to be balanced which most sites follow. Hopefully, it was just an inadvertent error when the color scheme was designed.

I have an exceptionally busy week and might not be on as much as I'd like. Before I miss my opportunity...Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. 2025 has been a rough year in a lot of ways for myself personally as well as our family. That said, so much to be thankful for. Enjoy the holiday with your families. It is a a pleasure to come here and share common interests together and have fun doing so.

You should let the people at Pivotal Weather know about honest color schemes. Temperatures in the 60s there look like a heatwave.

a full cancel/grief/uncancel cycle before Thanksgiving. Yall have been practicing! This place is in late season form!

Nearly all of that 2000 snow fell on December 30 though. For the record @MJO812 im certainly not saying it doesn't snow in NYC in nina decembers. Just that it's snowier than normal further north. NYC can often be on a gradient line. Plus add in the fact that those northern places already average more to begin with, and you can come up with quite a contrast by months end.