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Today wee small hours highs EWR: 52 / 38 (0) NYC: 50 / 38 (-1)

It is snowing in Melville, LI.

Rain here but it’s 35 so maybe some catpaws soon.

Today felt like January. Even though my temperature stayed at 38-39 that wind at times made it feel cold. I know my wife was coming home off 81 at the Hegins exit the temperature on her car showed 33 at the exit.

Pavement covered . 70” +

Cooler air will move into the region overnight. As a result, temperatures will start out in the lower and middle 30s tomorrow morning before topping out in the upper 40s in New York City. Some upper 20s are possible outside the City. Readings will then return to the lower and perhaps middle 50s by midweek. Another cold front could cross the region on Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +18.28 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.069 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some nice banding in E NH/SW ME with the trough swinging through. Just heard the plow go by…probably mostly for salt.

Phoenix though very slightly cooler still hit 100 today!

Glad you have thick skin…we bust each other all of the time here. Usually it’s nothing personal. Wolfie loves his CO2 emissions and cold posts so he is fun to razz.

That's true, calling bad obs out is good, but then many "break" or "wander" again, and the cycle repeats. So it doesn't go away really for long-term average temps impact. UHI is not to be discounted. It impacts long-term temp averages significantly, and in certain cases, the short-term as well. Such as days hitting some psychologically pleasing number ending in 0 or 5 (e.g. temp 90+). UHI adds a couple of degrees to the max for many cities. and w/ time, the warm biases are getting higher. ***** Here is something I think some may find useful concerning wx data and stats,, esp. when it comes to reporting today, perceptions, and how things can be manipulated and skewed easy when details or facts are left out. This goes back to what I said about data sets and how they can be processed and interpreted in many different ways, and how the resultant stats can be made to say just about anything. You need to be skeptical and put on your critical thinking that more than ever these days, that is what I emphasizing here, not who is "right" or "wrong" or the like. ----- I would caution as to the number of records broken in any given event w/ primary wx parameters involved. I've seen posts that over 600 all-time temp records have been set w/ the current heatwave. That may be true, but there is a caveat. What stations are they using to get that number? I ask b/c the period of record (POR) for many wx stations now is very short since we have installed a *lot* in the last 30 years alone. I know this subject very well b/c I was the keeper of files for wx reporting sites across the globe when I was at WSI, and I still keep track of it all on my own time now. In last 25 years alone, over 600 AWOS sites have been installed and METARs available from the MS Valley to the West Coast. Just in TX, over 130. So you can see where I am going w/ this. When it is claimed a temp record is set at any site, you *have* to ask, "what is its POR?" Sure, we have many GHCN sites and those are proper to use, but I found in order to inflate and hype totals, sites that do not have a long climate history are included. I shouldn't have to spell it out, but can you see how easy it is to set temp records of *any* kind when POR is short? This doesn't discount the nature of current heatwave as to high-end, but you see how numbers can be "played with" to make things appear more impressive than they really are. Disregarding POR is disingenuous when you are talking climate records. This comes all around to how we report on things, and "adjust" for the max effect for hype and to promote certain narratives. Considerable exaggeration and plain lies derived from wx data exist and this practice is rife for a host of non-scientific reasons, and it is lopsided toward gloom and doom b/c of warmer overall temps to the point it has become ridiculous (i.e. everything bad that happens now is due to warmer global temps or "the Earth's day has increased by 1.33 milliseconds in the last century from climate change!"). And what I say above about POR, this is just one of many things that can be manipulated concerning wx data. POR omission is something straightforward and easy to detect, but it gets more complicated than that. Such as this: P-hacking The manipulative practice of re-analyzing or selecting data until non-significant results become statistically significant often by testing multiple variables or stopping data collection early. This technique generates false positives, misleads research findings, and undermines scientific integrity.

This pattern blows dong other than Thursday

Radar is lookin' good.

This pattern blows dong other than Thursday

Wintry day with snow squalls. Just a T for me but 0.3" at DTW. Season totals 40.1" my backyard, 39.4" DTW. Some squalls had isolated whiteouts and the sky often resembled thunderstorm incoming.

Might last until Easter

Take your pants down

We are all anxiously awaiting

Coated up at my parents too from a little CJ.

May grab an inch to 70 https://imgur.com/a/EhDdzhS#aLnEXD3

Gotta love March. Lol

snowing pretty good.. everything whitened up again

Sure, in 8 weeks or so.

Teets and dews