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Flash flooding warning for Chimney Rock and Lake Lure areas...

This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC. Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center. It was quite elongated. So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall. That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status. I have always said when a system is transitions like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status. Why not? If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolute no reason to think it can not work the other way. This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall. A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr. It is *process* that takes time. And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue. ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical. In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assign operationally TC to ST status as systems transitioned.

Monitor your NC mountain peeps if you have any. Confirmed landslides being broadcast. Sirens activated

Confirmed landslide around 226 and Little Switzerland area. LOTS more rain still to come. Going to sketchy for you hills and mountain folks I'm afraid.

There could be brief deviations westward, just not expecting a nearly month long deviation like we saw in 2023-2024. The fact that we shut down forcing west of the dateline already and we have a hyperactive EPac hurricane season is notable. 97-98 didn’t even do that this early.

Sounds like things are deteriorating fast. Flood Sirens going off in Rutherford county for the Falls Creek area.

Just crossed over the 5" mark up here on the mountain near Seven Devils. Been absolutely pouring for the last few hours now. Hope all you folks in the foothills are staying safe.

People travel for beautiful scenery and what interests them. Seeing fall foliage in New England is on the bucket list for many people who enjoy traveling. It's become more and more popular. Most people wouldn't travel to experience exciting weather, but many of us here would because that's what interests us.

Jason Boyer saying confirmed landslide in McDowell county.

I would also be careful with the very linear line of thought that there can't be any pattern deviation because it's so east based.

Regarding the LTG frequency, Isaias was rapidly going PT/ET, and strong baroclinic influences were present before landfall. Dry air intrusion and wind shear are going to lead to stronger updrafts b/c more CAPE present. Asymmetries in the circulation are going to result in frontal-type convergence zones, further promoting stronger updrafts Also, chasers reported it was a "cold" hurricane. Temps along the FL coast were largely below 70 prior to landfall. That's not your typical tropical environment. LTG can be frequent in eyewall in an intense HU in the deep tropics. Recons have reported this many times in strong Cat 4s and Cat 5s. What happens is that when a TC gets this intense, updrafts in the eyewall, which normally max out just below typical tstm updraft strength, cross the threshold to make it favorable for LTG.

Yeah I’m not saying it right, but I hate that look personally.

My postulation is basin-wide/hybrid forcing for that reason...like 1957 and 1965, but warmer.

0.11” here. Yay.

Nice scenery can be found in many places in New England, but yeah, it’s a different experience to travel and see the foliage over vast mountainous landscapes, especially when it’s a generational year.

Anyone got any gauge or public reports? Saw Jason mention Crooked Creek has 5”+

4.16 and rounds of downpours continue

Flood Advisory now. Absolutely dumping closing in on 5" at 4.78" currently. Flood Advisories run the entire escarpment with this firehose set-up. 0z HRRR has another 3-4" with heavy rain on and off all night, outside chance of hitting that 10" it was spitting out yesterday. Wild dude. My friend over near the TN line only had an inch in about an hour ago. The crazy swings across the county will never not fascinate me.

Yeah I’d exercise caution with the “west based forcing because previous Ninos had forcing more west based than forecast” idea. It’s a valid point, but keep in mind this is east-based beyond historical precedent.

When I turned on the game in Cleveland and they said they were getting rain from a gulf low before we were I cringed. Glad it’s not winter lol.

Raining