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  2. mappy
    She’s between Ritchie, 100, and Magothy Bridge RD. I think worst was north of her on the other side of 100
  3. mitchnick
    Tell it to the new Jamstec winter forecast. I'm just the messenger. Maps stink, but that's all they seem to offer.
  4. Torch Tiger
    it's very windy tbh, at least locally. nasty out.
  5. qg_omega
    It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air
  6. Voyager
    I got 0.10" more between 11 and 12 last night to take my total to 1.93" for the day. Caveat...what I mentioned about the USGS gauge being lower. It's total was 1.45". My dilemma. Which is more accurate? A tipping bucket or a hepatic gauge?
  7. snowman19
    I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy
  8. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    For those looking for international sourcing, https://retaildiscountprograms.online/# is highly useful.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Not time to do an analysis but I want to note that the intensity trend was increasing before the designation on some ensemble guidance, including quite an outlier on the EPS. If this stays further south there is a window more more modest development as it moves toward the western Gulf. But we'll see what recon finds and get that data assimilated so hurricane models and other guidance can get a better sense of things. Seeing GDM with some modest members is very interesting. Note sure what the EPS sees but let's see if 12z is similar. I think the NHC opening with a 60mph landfall with land interaction forecast should tell us this has potential.
  10. mitchnick
    Lol. That's definitely the 3rd time you pulled up 23/24 when you tried to back door dispute every seasonal forecast. First the NMME, then the Euro seasonal, and the Cfs2 at least this time if not more. As been discussed many times, this year ain't 23/24. But at this point, none of the seasonal modeling is showing anything close to 23/24. But I'm sure if one does, we'll see it posted by you more than 3 or 4 times. Honestly, I seriously believe you want it to be warm. Deny it all you want, but that's the impression I'm getting from you at this point.
  11. powderfreak
    So if the streak ends, we know who to blame … perfect weather for the tight Fenway experience. Though if they win, you can’t miss another game this season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS and JMA have a Modoki look, which I don't recall seeing on guidance in 2023. I don't think there is any way in hell we get that in the seasonal mean given the magnitude of this event, but I also wouldn't ignore it altogether. We should see some variability.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yeah, the cooling W pac kicking off trades and loss of equatorial ocean heat to the atmosphere always argues for this whenever we go super nino IMO.
  14. WxWatcher007
    He's a clown, but last year it all but ended on 7/30.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Heyyy we have homebrew No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out.
  16. dendrite
    Pretty crazy that summer is over on 7/19
  17. Torch Tiger
    Combined with the coming mid-week fail, very flaccid end to the season. Sucks Maybe see a rogue threat early Sept. when stronger forcing and dynamics come back with the leftover cape
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember I pointed this out last spring and got roasted for it.
  19. weatherwiz
    Beautiful day for some baseball, although a tad windy
  20. LakePaste25
    Yes, but they’re likely to be more correct this year, since the event will be so strong that it overwhelms all other competing signals. Broken clock rule.
  21. KakashiHatake2000
    Tuesday has tn separated between slight risk (top) and marginal risk (bottom) for day three with 5-15% probability here and 30-45% in the Appalachian mountains and mid Atlantic New England area https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html .
  22. NorthHillsWx
    91 with a DP of 77… this is as bad as it gets
  23. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Last few days a bulleye has shown of +9C,while +8C is slowly expanding in the east,seemingly this is being caused by the MJO moving into the region along with a DWKW. We get into August the CFS shows another which could be the strongest yet WWB along the IDL,but thats to far out to trust ATM
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Another big plume coming down from Canada. Western PA and Ohio back to Code Orange.
  25. Herb@MAWS
    I suspect we’ll be in and out of the smoke for at least a few weeks until the Canadian fires diminish.
  26. snowman19
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