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Upton not even thinking a wind advisory let alone warning

Globally September will end up cooler than August, due to a cool Southern Hemisphere paced by Antarctica. In strong contrast to September 2023 when a very warm Antarctica contributed significantly to "gobsmacking" warmth.

Low of 49

When I quickly first read this the 'roast' word was absent! I just did my own a few days ago with ginger seasoning this time.

This has got to change: .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Models in general agreement with a closed 500mb low over or near the forecast area Friday through Sunday. Given its location, anticipating the surface low to track near or not too far east of the 40N/70W benchmark during Saturday before meandering or retrograding toward the coast late in the weekend, then slowly departing during Monday as it weakens. Confidence in this track is still not high due to the closed/cutoff low aloft. Rain chances begin Friday morning, and mainly east of the city, rain is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the the city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50% up until Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking that rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to minor nuisance and poor drainage flooding. Long Island, especially eastern Long Island, can handle a fair amount of rain, especially the long duration nature of the event. However, if the NAM verifies, a period of heavy rain is possible the first part of Saturday night, with over 2 inches of rainfall for the south fork of Long Island in a 6 hour period. If models trend west with the storm track, then western zones could have a chance of minor flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has placed southeast CT and central and easter Long Island in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from Friday through Monday night. As for winds, continue anticipating gusts to remain below advisory thresholds, but it could come close across eastern LI and SE CT late day Friday through Saturday morning. However, there may be isolated incidents of downed trees and power lines due to the heavy rain loosening the soil and weighing down leaves in combination with breezy/windy conditions.

Heading down to Rehoboth this morning for a couple of days. Really looking forward to spending time outside experiencing some storm conditions. @CAPE let me know if you’re around for a beer. Dogfish releases their Oktoberfest on Friday, I think.

Maybe at Furnace Creek. Tough way to run an endless summer.

39 degrees this morning here in the Poconos.

I think the track on the euro AI ens is close to ultimately how this goes. With the loop west just south of somewhere between Suffolk co and Block island. That feels about right given everything. Has been quite breezy already this week. Expecting pretty big impacts from this thing locally.

If this verifies, NOAA, the NYC government, and the broadcast weathermen are doing a disservice by downplaying this.

Classic GFS cave overnight. Our soon-to-be future, RRFS, almost brings it onshore the Delmarva.

Yup - 49 here ivo Vienna.... Feels great outside

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore. An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like 13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far. The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event. The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides.

Can it be a torch and below normal at the same time? Asking for a friend. First 50s inside the house this morning. Too early.

Very accurate for ASH

Are you in a rest area stall on I84?

Overnight runs keep the uncertainty on impacts from the nor’easter. Euro is very slow and west. But gfs has come west as well. Good thing it’s not snow!

37.1° coldest so far Patchy frost in the valleys. Fogged out early at CON though.

Down in the 30's at work in Andreas, PA at the base of the Blue Mountain.

Finished with 0.07 yesterday and 0.18” storm total. 2.08” MTD. Looks extremely likely September will finish as yet another month well below normal in the rainfall department. 60.2 out this morning, still haven’t cracked the 50’s but should tonight

First 40s!

Stein gives it the big Meh. Minor nuisance and breezy.