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Well, our flash flood watch is looking like a dud so far...what happened?

HRRR wants to blow up that band running across C MA and move it into S NH. Looks like beer.

ORD ended up with four 90°+ days during this heat wave, while MDW ended up with five. ORD was able to snag the record high min on July 1st with the low of 80°. ...ORD... June 29th: 92°/76° June 30th: 94°/79° July 1st: 95°/80° July 2nd: 95°/71° ...MDW... June 29th: 93°/77° June 30th: 94°/78° July 1st: 94°/78° July 2nd: 95°/72° July 3rd: 91°/70°

5” of rain being reported out in the Danbury/Ridgefield area.

Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely

Not a direct hit but another .58" 2.83" total now.

A second line hit early Friday night, with peak wind gusts of 50-60MPH.

Little cell just popped in Annandale, will it break the beltway wall?!

The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold: In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US. -‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier -‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017! -‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US -‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US -‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE -’17 was too warm in the E US So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).

Some folks is cocked in here this evening . The convection south robbed the moisture transport as is typical in summer . It’ll rain farther north and east but no one away from the south coasts and maybe SE Mass are getting flooding and 3-9” of rain . You can see it on radar . Put model qpf down

There is a decent amount of modeling showing a secondary north push. Time will tell. When it's all said and done, the southern half of CT will likely do the best. I think Enfield ends up around 1-1.25", which in the end, is a nice beneficial rainfall. I'd like to get up there 2" or more ,but I'm not really sold on that yet.

Great evening out there with Stein shield. You have to wonder it even rains here

Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!

3.5” on the dot.

Breeze off the DE bay doing some work over here triggering heavy rain in the area, but not in my yard at this point lol.

Seems like most of the area will be high dry this evening. Would suspect most of us will see the FW dropped.

Sitting at 0.95" here. With the extreme drought and given the near ideal setup for heavy rain, anything less than another half to one inch would be disappointing.

They still seem adamant it will be fixed by tomorrow night, but I'm also starting to see Thursday night pop up in some of the smaller outages on the map Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

This. Although I’d have about 18-20” already from it…

Gust front really put a damper on things it seems

We would hate the radar and be mad as hell then the push would finally come and we would all rejoice and say ohhh that's what the models were seeing..

That N. Pacific Low is in the perfect position for our historical analog snowstorms. And -NAO, just put a 50/50 low underneath like mitchnick said it would look really favorable. Unfortunately, seasonal models have a huge ENSO bias. We have not seen a North Pacific low for more than a few days since January, July will be the 6th month in a row of -PNA. Just not getting that pattern at all right now. In 2023 it was never occurring too, and seasonal models kept outputting the same default ENSO, which didn't verify.

that strong easterly fetch is bringing in moisture as drizzle here not being picked up by the radar 67 degrees - July is promising a roller coaster ride of temps will be over 90 by Friday - ridiculous.........