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Look like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike. Nothing ridic. Beneficial. ...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking

WB 12Z GFS through Tuesday.

Dew point was in the mid 30's this morning. Not something you normally see in this part of Michigan in the latter part of June.

I’d be surprised if I get more than half an inch

We are back to the sudden move north again for systems. All the steady rain well north of where it was modeled a few days ago.

How does this current pattern affect any potential tropical activity up here? If it does at all?

So much for the cool and rainy El Nino summer. Looks like our drought could get even worse. This was at Falls Lake yesterday (main sections still have water but even that is looking quite shallow in places):

Interestingly, since that WCS tweet was made on 5/28/26 showing the then latest WCS PDO (5/27/26) down at -1.40, then near a 6 month low, the WCS PDO has risen nearly 1 in just 25 days while El Niño has gotten much stronger to -0.48:

yeah most of today now looks dry. Delayed not denied LOL!

This will yet again be a <0.10" event, maybe even nothing here.

B But they're not even in a drought!!! /s

What a day.. I'm surprised they didn't go with moderate at some point. Even at 20z it was obvious something was up. Evansville fire and EMA were talking on the radio about watching Ryan Hall trying to figure out where the tornado was.

Ladies and gentleman, the broiler is about to be turned on.

WWB time:

The GFS has joined the HRRR/NAM/RRFS for a decent soak on Tuesday.

Stupid X posts won't allow me to see the og images so I can't find out what Z is . I feel there is a parallel to IL's insane tor numbers, what state had numbers to the moon one year? AL in 2011?

Anddddd it went poof

GFS is pretty solid for tomorrow. That might be the main rainmaker across the region. Especially Delmarva.

Upstate NY in the jackpot zone again.

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era. It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds. If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral with overlapping warm pools from the West and East. Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern. While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state.

Probably be some decent rains SOP tomorrow...might be a couple different waves of it

Shear looks better than forecasted last night. Surface winds are nearly due south instead of the more westerly direction shown by the models.

I see the models now longer the rain pretty much all day tomorrow, which is a change. So we should get a decent amount no matter what happens with today's convection, but hopefully we'll see a heavy downpour this afternoon.

Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC.

NAM and its replacement