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  2. The long range HRRR has snow ratios at 17 to 20 to one,it's gonna stack up.
  3. Yup def a beach storm kitty hawk up to you guys.. Congrats
  4. I wouldn't use the nam for precip at all at this range. It's going to move every run
  5. We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us.
  6. Guess we'll just call this the storm that could have been. I for sure thought this was going to come up the coast days ago but totally wrong on that. dendrites post this morning illustrated why it wasn't happening and those signals with trough, dPVA, and dynamics were there the whole time to tell the story.
  7. What's interesting to me about RAH's last product is that the dry slot is not apparent on the 90% low end, but does seem evident on the 10% high end. As if we're either getting a broad shield or getting bombed with comparative dry slots. (IANAM, so what do I know?)
  8. Maybe they just hadn’t updated it yet .
  9. is it me, or are isopleth's overlapping here lol This is the ugliest looking thing I think I have ever seen *edit - Ok, I see it now, the 531 perfectly matches the NJ coastline and the "overlap" is just perfectly timed to when they pinch-off from one another
  10. Here’s my Accuweather forecast. (Yeah I know lol) but it’s nice to see my % isn’t that far apart. .
  11. I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads
  12. 18z NAM had it snowing through 21z Sunday for HR
  13. WRAL adjusted their totals. They are concerned about dry air being wedged between two maxima. They said there is a dry slot showing up on "more and more models."
  14. Hi Don, do you think that the lack of sounding data in the 6z and 18z runs might contribute to the divergent solutions?
  15. Mine went to less than an inch. Why would you issue a winter storm warning for an inch or less. It must be computer junking up their point forecast.
  16. It’s going to be so hard to nail that band down but you want to be close to be in the game obviously. But the potential here is high high high end stuff.
  17. I'd bring a cookie pan or baking pan with you, just in case.
  18. Looks solid to me. Trend is the focus right now.
  19. 18z 3k is in a much better spot compared to the 12k NAM at hr 60
  20. I will say. The NAM and GRAF concern me because the precip flow seems much more North to South. I’d prefer a east to west flow for us to get any sort of good accumulation. Idk. You guys know I’ve always been iffy on this system
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