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Moved even further to the northeast than recon even thought! Landfall is definitely a possibility...

Despite the high level of activity in the EPAC, they’ve almost entirely avoided getting close to MX. Only the two TS Boris and Cristina were right next to MX and those were in early June, well before the Aug 14-Sep 4th period you showed the 250mb wind component anomalies for. The only 4 during Aug 14th-Sep 4th that even show MX on the map were the four I’m noting below and one can see that MX isn’t even that close. All of these mainly avoided the areas with average 250 mb wind anomalies of +6+ on your map as their tracks were mainly within the +2 to +6 anomalies (yes still + but not large + anomalies and they may have formed when actual anomalies were lower since your map is just the avg for a 3 week period): -TS Iselle: TS Julio: H Karina: H Maria: closest to MX of these 4 but still 375 miles away from Cabo Here’s ‘26 season to date: Compare the above ‘26 season to date map with the 2015 full season below. Note that in 2015 by today’s date, the following had already occurred that were either right at or nearer MX than the ‘26 tracks excluding Boris and Cristina: -Blanca (cat 4 H) -Carlos (cat 1 H) -Dolores (cat 4 H) -Kevin (60 mph TS) not too far from Cabo -Linda (cat 3H) not too far from Baja

That’s obscene, 50” in 24hr. Must have felt like a waterfall.

Hurricane warnings up. Asked the in-laws to send pics. I think the bigger worry is flooding...they got nailed back in 2018 with 50" in 24 hours. Cannot imagine it.

50 last night

A batch of showers formed along the cosst in SC 2 hours ago and has just moved SW into my area with heavy rains and initial gusty winds starting ~2PM. This is adding up nicely and is this my first significant rain of the month. Edit: It rained for only ~20 minutes and this didn’t add up to as much as I had hoped for. But I still got a not too shabby ~0.35”, the most by far this month to date.

Dewpoints in the 50s in Winston-Salem!

Sign me up for any. We had a gtg last year, albeit a small turnout, but was a great time.

Beautiful morning. Just eeked out a low in the 40s (49.8). After a 3 day dousing of over 2 inches, things are fresh and green. Beautiful day today. I hope everyone enjoys it

Personally I've hiked some of the easy 14ers, mainly easy ones, plus 12000-13000 were really nice a number of times. I hiked Long's twice, which is not easy, and it was not really that easy on me the 2nd time. For some reason I joined with my hiking group to do the Kelso ridge on Torrey's Peak, and that involved scooting on the "knife edge." So, Torrey's could have been a lot easier, but I decided to risk my life, kind of like Long's Peak. Silly me. I hiked Mt. Richthofen at RMNP from the Agnes Lake parking lot. That was a terrific view, and my friend and I had to fight against a little crumbly crap. The view was worth it. We were the only two people on the mountain. Not much of a developed trail. And I did that on a Labor Day some time in the past. I absolutely do not know how marmots stay alive at 14000 feet. There are no plants. Do they sort of just climb up there for fun? I do not know. Animals cannot eat rocks.

I speculate there will be lot of wish casting, meltdowns, and season cancellations.

Interesting Don…. So (as of today) Accu Weather long range historic average is predicting 2026 will have the latest of all three. Of course their 90 day long range does/can adjust daily. When it comes to the cold season the double L L …. Lessor and later seems to prevail. As always ……

Any analogs show up with strong El Nino’s with extraordinarily low Atlantic ACE’s the preceding tropical season?

All day, every day weather. Cool AM, warm afternoon. Throw in some rains here and there and I’m sold.

This is a trademark of climate for the east coast (particularly NYC south) and the Mid-Atlantic. Which is why I dont understand the panic from some over an expected milder than average mean over a 90 day period. Especially with the overwhelming signal for above avg precip in the east. It is different here in the Great Lakes. Big storms are usually in the 6-12" range but snow is much more frequent than the east coast. So my worry about a crummy winter is not that it wont snow- it will many times- its that in the end total snow, snowcover, and stretches of sustained/deep winter are almost always less than average in strong ninos. I imagine its similar in new England, and even though they do get massive noreasters, i cant imagine 1 storm would make or break their season as it would further down the coast.

For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it.

Too much UHI these days to easily secure lows in the 50s before late september. We will smash the record likely.

Absolutely a stellar day on Lake Keowee today. Current temp of 74 and overcast.

Recent eastward trends have made things a lot more interesting for Kauai.

Again, we are tracking the last four El Ninos rather well as a blend.

Roughly 20F off so far for parts of Iowa. No big deal. Only 10-15F or so by CA/OR so far. La Nina Modoki / El Nino traditional tend to favor the West Cold Fall-Spring (E Pac relatively warm v. W Pac at the equator in each case).