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CMC has storm as well.

Like the great MLK once said, I had a dream (just mine was dirty).

The 12z Euro AIF is rolling. You can send me the Christmas card later (for saying the first week of December being warm was a foregone conclusion). LOL. That right there is not a warm look for the eastern 2/3 of North America.

To be fair you are in peak form for November.

And this would be phase 8. Now, I must warn everyone(newbies especially) that model talk past d10 is not without peril. But it sure seems like the GFS (and about half of the recent AIFS runs) are sniffing out a potential cold shot around December 6th.

Yes. I agree. I think only the timing of its onset remains to be seen.

And this is a setup that says, "Look out!" This is sitting at d10. As @Holston_River_Ramblershared yesterday, the AIFS caught wind of this possibility first - I failed to note that early...sorry Holston! The GFS is now picking up on the possibility. That is a mechanism for fiercely cold air to be discharged into the Lower 48, especially the Northern Plains, Ohio River Valley, and maybe the Tenn River Valley. There is the possibility that this is being under done. Either way, this is a very cold look at the surface.

The primary drives up into Pittsburgh and everyone flips.

It happens more than you think. There is absolutely no QA/QC for weather apps. I would love to see something like American Meteorological Society or National Weather Association offer a "seal of approval" for apps that maintain things like updates, appropriate warning information, etc. Worse yet, certain apps like Operating System based platforms are largely not customizable and default to the organizational settings. All of these work to undermine the credibility of weather apps and unfairly degrade the ethos of the meteorological community.

SoMD would be sweating the rain/snow line for the whole event. That's what I want to see, the big ones are always a stressful event down here.

When I type on Google asking about the major SSW will it be either reflective or absorptive the answer has changed before it said reflective now it's saying a combined reflective- absorptive event. Starting out as a reflective phase transitioning into an absorptive phase. Which is why the AO is turning positive with the reflective phase then it will transition mid to late December into the absorptive phase which will flip the AO and NAO both negative. This information is compiled by numerous sources. So December is far from toast. The GEFS shows the MJO going into phase 8.

Exactly Our forecasting system is broken but many cling to it quite vociferously. Some can navigate impressively getting stations installed on public and private lands, they have talent and contacts and expert execution. I wish they would apply that talent to NOAA and NWS and bring about change. I’ve offered suggestions and not just complaints. But I’m a minority voice in that

And it is very important to be careful w/ 500 maps with cold air on the prowl. I was watching temp maps that were frigid at the surface, but the 500 map looked benign. The surface map(first image) shows a strong cold outbreak into the Tenn Valley after 300 hours. See that string of high pressures. However, the 500 map looks kind of meh. I think there is a 50/50 chance that we see a strong cold outbreak in/around December 6th.

Watched Train Dreams last night. Decent flick and reminded me of your profession.

you must be new

The 12z GFS now has a true Arctic outbreak at the end of its run which is exactly what we would expect to see with the MJO flirting with phase 8. And I have said this many times, the GFS deterministic would likely be the first to spot something like that. I don't know if it is right, but it fired the first shots yesterday at 18z.

I think the end result of all of this will be some wild swings between cold and warm. The frequency of the troughs and ridges is high. The troughs are deep and the ridges are high. That is a formula for wild swings from model run to model run. I do think troughs tucking under the EPO ridge is probably an error. It is not without precedent, but it usually isn't common this early in the season and especially with an MJO that would want to kick a trough out of the West. The runs which make the most sense are the ones where the troughs get booted if/when they form(from the West). I think the progressive nature of the GFS is probably muting that feedback.

I do believe the GFS is now starting to sense the MJO. That is a MONSTER EPO ridge on that model to begin December. I highly doubt the downstream consequences of that are worked out yet.

Sheesh man. You’re more negative than me. Let’s at least wait on the Euro.

Just like that the warmup is gone during the 1st week of December on the gfs thanks to the negative epo

Record warmth prevailed across Minnesota yesterday, with record highs of 56F at Minneapolis-St. Paul and 55F at St. Cloud. Fargo reached an incredible 60F, setting a daily record and making yesterday the 3rd latest date in the calendar year on which that temperature milestone was reached or exceeded.

Stop talking about smoked Turkey. It's Monday. I stop consuming Tuesday morning to make room. On Wednesday evening I chug a Roaring Springs Premium Water cooler jug to stretch the stomach out. I don't need this temptation already lol

lol

12z guidance looking to close the book on this one before a thread even gets made

GFS shows my new Pit1 getting more snow than Pit2 next week. Sell. Sell. Sell.