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Four score and seven threads ago, oh wait that's the Gettysburg address.

CoastalWx applying "English" to TICK the weekend storm N!? UKMET does so and GDPS is tryin'. GFS and ECMWF say no, but a "MIDLO" blockbuster for the Mid-Atlc. This is quite interesting. There is literally nothing at 500, at least I can't find anywhere close to the sfc low. When it is just off Delmarva, the flow close and over it is actually a bit anticyclonic! The trough/vort is way W in MKE-DSM area. I don't think that vort here is driving it. It's a classic Miller A "bottom-up" system. Strong from sfc-850, but MEH above that. The Feb 11, 1983 blockbuster was like this. CoastalWx LUVs this one b/c it was fcst NOT to hit SNE, and a big surprise. South Weymouth NAS had TS+ and BDL SNOINCR 5. Also SNOINCR 5 at ABE and LGA had TS+. New all-time 24 hour snowfall records were set at PHL, CXY, and ABE. Max amount of 35" at Glengary WV. This event was not a deep sfc low, about 994 mb at it closest approach to SNE, and the weekend storm look similar. Also, like Feb 11, 1983, a very cold Arctic air mass was in place over the NEUS, and suppression of the storm track was a big fcst issue!

We got time. North trends are real and happen all the time. They are always unwelcome for someone but I’d be sweating just as much if I was in DC. SNE is in the game this far out.

Is the moisture on land for this storm? Wouldn’t that be important for sampling? Shouldn’t we wait to see how the moisture phases before buying any model prediction? And shouldn’t we wait to see how strong the high is before going full-hog? When would we have a good understanding of the strength of the high? I’m genuinely asking, so please don’t read this with any tone other than curiosity. It just seems that there is a lot of potential excitement, but, to me, there are a lot of questions. Whatever you all can offer, please do. I genuinely enjoy learning with each event as the discussion unfolds.

WB 18Z EPS AI: still lot of big hits but also some whiffs.

Euro is spitting 1.5+ qpf over the Piedmont with 850s looking beautiful. Check please! .

I just can't let myself get excited about this yet... I want to but we've just been kicked in the nuts so many times in the past decade...

That’s considerably slower/later no? Says 18z(1 pm) on Sunday, and that doesn’t look like there’s anything(no dynamics) here yet.

CMC ensembles south

OK I take it back. Nashville doesn't appear to be out of it

That's easily 15:1 if not 20:1 up here. We always do well with ratios here when the set up supports it.

I think we are now within 4 days of it starting. This would be unbelievable to witness.

NNE has no shot with the amount of cold coming down. SNE has a shot but it might be tough. Im sweating down here also. Maybe Pope is right. This will be a mid atlantic snowstorm.

I don't think its a big deal - its not like we are trying to rewrite the Constitution---lol

If trends continue should be some awesome pics/video coming out of that swath. Arklatex area/southern AR look like they could be ground zero where the ice band sort of pivots.

Dendrite bomb

I thought this was a huge overrunning set up? What’s this talk of a secondary now? (coastal?). How does that change things for us in SNE?

He’s short enough most waitresses let him order off the kiddie menu which has cheaper prices

Not sure if anyone posted the EPS, but it's a hold or slightly improved. 12Z:

Man, I have gotten nothing done today. Going to take a step back for the night now that all the runs are done.

Likely torch tiger f****** around.

In the words of @psuhoffman , “Pass the cigarette”

CMC is the most northern......

This has to be an all timer modeled amount within 5 days

Welcome back!! Definitely some fun stuff going on!! I’m super pumped for this weekend!! .