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another in a parade of phantoms

Anybody notice how far south the Wed shortwave has gotten on the GFS? It gets the 500mb 540dm contour all the way down into the Carolinas this run (0z). It's been steadily shifting south for maybe a half dozens runs now. It probably doesn't mean much given the relative short range (and lack of support)... but any further south and northern parts of the region would be in the game for some wintry precip. The Poconos are already in the game. I-84 region is borderline.

Do you see any decent winter weather opportunities for the southern plains moving forward?

This might wake a few folks up. Long way to go, but nice to see...

Dude, was driving back just now from Richmond to Charlottesville and it was thick as pea soup out there. Never seen it that bad....whole dang way home

Gfs shows a snowstorm for the 16th even down to the coastal plain.

30.6, GFS still has 2-3 inches here.

Eyeballing about 1.5”. Had snow on and off for a good part of the afternoon and it became steady later in the day, ending with a heavier burst. I think there is 6”-8” on the ground now. It is enough to buzz the snowmobiles around the yard for a bit. Down to 15.2°.

Just look at the storm tracks, and all the sharp cutoffs south and east. It's been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (with the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022.) If you live in a coastal area, like Atlantic City, you're not going to see much snow this year.

Odd. Oisst shows it predominantly below normal as of 12/6. Something isn't right, not that it matters.

You betcha. The western ridge is semipermanent. Cold air will continue along with storm after storm after storm after storm after storm after storm after storm after storm after storm. Snow gods love the Mid Atlantic this winter. You will all see soon enough! ENJOY! Bob Chill I hope you get buried alive by fluffy snow!

They were. But still picked up 25.1" in December 2000. I had 29.9".

GFS now following the NAM with a little snow early Wednesday in SNE.

28.2/26.5 at 11 pm, plenty cold enough for snow.

Sure, Where you are is, As a whole area, NNE is not crushing it, Not sure what the creiteria is for a crushing, The rest of NNE outside of elevations has 4-8" on the ground but it has been plenty cold and building ice, Way ahead of last year in that dept.

-11.6 in the first full week of December is a significant departure for MVL locally. That doesn’t happen often. It’s been cold. BTV is -11.3 to start December. For a location that seems to run warm.

00z GFS

Just need some moisture here in the Triad. Already 2° colder than modeled at 33°. We could sneak down to freezing soon with no cloud cover. Don't you Virginia boys wreck a forum party!

33.6/33.13 at 10:54p.

It should be if there is a warmup. Lag in the MJO would put us near the holidays.

It's not wrong... the early season snow has been tied to the upslope regions on the whole. There was one or two decent synoptic snows for the time of year, but the highest anomalies have been in the Greens, north of the I-89/Winooski Valley. MRG, Sugarbush and Killington zone has not seen nearly the snow that Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs and Jay have seen. The forum has a decent posting contingent from northern mesoscale snow areas, along with the central New England zone that can get raked with synoptic snows. The anomalies max out further north, but it's been a cold start to the season, with snow cover, for a decent aerial zone.

Yep, not as much as last night but some accretion on elevated surfaces here. Sitting at 29, 3 degrees colder than NWS hourly forecast

Maybe the case, I haven't checked, but November and the beginning of December that year was a polar opposite temp-wise in the east to this year.

Same. 16 and sunny felt warm today so I know the winter brainwashing was very successful this year

-SN, 23/21°F, Looks like 1.0" on the ground.