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So it seems the AI models are learning, they're learning to come back to reality with the tried and true lol ( joking of course ) maybe things stay the course. Maybe they don't. I guess we'll know by tomorrow night what the final outcome will be for Sunday

WB EURO 18Z AI likes the 29th period for a coastal.

I expect a rug pull at 00z to be honest. Feels like 18z is laying the ground work

These are slow moves by 18z Skynet. I wonder if it’s going to just be slow caves each run from here or if we get a full rug-pull on one of these runs tonight.

Euro gives DC nearly an inch tonight let's see if its right (although it might be sleet looking at soundings)

Heh…I remember seeing this story before

If so then that is not 5-10" get your ratios ready.

still not a bad hit for many though

18z Euro AI starting to cave a bit

Got to be circa 2010 .

One item that stands out to me for the Sat event, when was the last time you saw that much snow forecast by the models w/ a sfc low passing well N in Quebec and sfc winds blowing the "wrong way" (SW) for a widespread accumulating snowfall, esp, in SNE? I can't recall an event quite like this. And the trough/sfc low is rather MEH. It seems counterintuitive, but the 18z HRRR and RRFS are in excellent agreement (snowfall 10:1 totals attached). Kuchera ratios are better for the higher elevations, showing up to a foot in srn VT. That is remarkable, given the synoptic setup! The odd and piecemeal/selective winter for New England snow events continues, and ern MA centered near Weymouth continues to be "flanked" on all sides, missing out on most events, while other areas are not doing too bad for seasonal snowfall, all things considered. And to add insult to injury, another oddity. It is the coldest time or the year, and a storm goes OTS, yet there are BL temp issues for ptype over SE MA and RI for the precip that makes it in?! This is what happens on Sun. W-T-F???!!! Maybe I shouldn't have said that, just drags down CoastalWx more!

It was fairly obvious the AI models were going to cave

3.75 final call here

We cave

You think it's real this time? Many warm can kicks this season

GOA low might break through and torch the whole North America. We’ll likely hold onto the cold the longest, and I hope its only temporary as mjo tries to get into 8 and weeklies pop another -ao in early feb. But once canada torches, it’ll take a long time for us to get cold again. edit: euro does this, but gefs (12z) doesn’t quite punch the goa low through

Euro AI east. Looking like the Euro will verify

Or wrong

Ha I have that one too.

Till March? Lol I mean I don't know all the things other than the SER that causes Nina Februaries to torch, but...if it's the same as other years...

Cards may be falling into place late Jan/Early Feb. STJ starts to get active. +PNA -EPO -AO hopefully -NAO, MJO moving into phase 8.

Not only with the snow chances on Gfs but my god the temps are brutal for over a week. Highs in teens some days and lows at or below 0.

28.8º here, hopefully we can squeeze another inch out of tonight's system. I'm hopeful for at least more than the dusting we got Thursday.

What are you seeing beyond that? More typical February Nina stuff?