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Today’s EW rainfall next 2 weeks: 4/27-5/3: AN to NN SE; ATL 1.5-1.75” 5/4-10: NN in SE (ATL 0.75”); wetter FL

Got over an inch in the southern mtns. Rained hard and steady for about 8 hours. Still well below normal

The recent rain delivered 0.50"-1.50" of rain to the region, along with some locally higher figures. Rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.89" Islip: 1.31" New Haven: 0.74" New York City-Central Park: 1.39" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.49" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.45" Newark: 1.64" Philadelphia: 0.51" White Plains: 1.07" Tomorrow through Wednesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s. However, another shot of rain followed by cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.960 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Mine are still going strong, too....I don't recall a year when the bloom has been this long and strong.

Today’s Euro Weeklies continue to have BN next 2 weeks averaged out! 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10: We can thank this H5 for cool 5/4-10

Im taking a stab in the dark, but i think snowman is going with a super nino.

They should acknowledge their forecast bust. It was certainly noteworthy.

The forsythia have been “in bloom” for 3-4 weeks . Crazy how long they’ve stayed flowered with greens mixed in

Mount Holly AFD KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional chances for much-needed rain arrive during the middle of this week. A brief period of high pressure on Monday, potentially lingering into Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary then approaches the region late Tuesday, bringing a chance for light rain. The chances for meaningful rainfall with this system appear to be decreasing with high pressure staying close by and the frontal boundary largely washing out across the region. Another stronger low is still expected to arrive late Wednesday into early Thursday that is expected to bring more widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the region.

Getting our best rains (and just about our only rains of note) since April 5th’s nearly 1/2”. Currently have a band of heavy thunderstorms coming through with some rumbles. I haven’t watered since 4/22 and this will allow me to go further without going back to watering.

Love it when the temp is still climbing past 5pm. Up to 61 now. Great afternoon.

65 here as well with plenty of sun. Not a bad weekend overall, hit 57 with some breaks of sun yesterday and the light rain held off until evening.

Pretty much sums up the Nina precip pattern.

Wth when did we become the armpit of the weather world? Was 56F and breaks in cloud cover when I left the cabin...now down here in Calvert it's 51F and solid gray. Gross breeze too.

I dread thinking what this summer will be if we don’t start getting rains soon.

squarely above normal in a below normal pattern ?

Just give us some darn rain!!!!!

65.3° high

keep praying

Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.

Have ordered blight resistant tomatoes arriving in May from Burpee, they did great last year. Less yellowing/curling of the leaves.

Rainfall total forecasting just as bad as snowfall forecasting in the winter. Can't complain too much here with .43 last 24 hours. WPC did better than Mount Holly with QPF forecasts.

I wonder what type of tweets the bias corrected Snowman19 would post. They would probably be more moderate to strong El Niño tweets instead of super. Its too bad we don’t have access to that.

59F

Sandy River median is 2,990 cfs, record minimum 819, current 1,050. Bring it on.