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This. In previous years Canada was torching so even when we did get a decent H5 pattern the airmass still wasn't great. Looks like good cold air in Canada to tap into. Obviously all subject to change but it's not a close the blinds look at all. And for your yard and my yard when it's been a really cold pattern I don't have any ground truth snow cover to speak of. It's all been south of our area. It's been that way for the last few years really.

Fwiw, 12z ICON not interested in the Friday/Friday night idea... Saturday night is up in PA

12/5 - 3.1" 12/8 - 2.8" Total: 5.9" What a start to the season for the southern crew

I’m not really trying to quantify it. I’m just thinking H5 shortwaves and vortmaxes and where they tend to move through the eastern US. But when I see this south of the Delmarva in early December, with cold in place, I just think of it as in the southerly extreme of probable outcomes.

Latest Cfs2 weekly temp forecast. Not bad and looks familiar too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2025120900&fh=168

This made me LOL. The amount of psychological hedging on here is hilarious. We’ve got people calling off the Sunday storm despite it still being on a decent number of ensembles. Then canceling winter. Crazy stuff.

Friday may deliver another snow for the Virginias

-PNA did not help the shortwave dig at all, so we just got weak sauce.

Low of 17.8 this morning here at the beach. Impressive.

Welcome back 70s and 80s .

Very similar to the Cansips that keeps cold lurking to our north most of the winter. Here's a link to 2m temps starting in January. Cansips actually likes January for temps over December, thoigh we've built up quite a deficit so far and will maintain most of it before the pattern breaks down. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120100&fh=0 If you look at 5H anomalies, Cansips wants to have higher heights draped across most areas in the country south of 39-40N. It still gets at or a little BN temps in our area with the WxUSAF slow bleed idea. It's going to be low level, which will likely cause angst (zr/ip) threats, as 850 anomalies are not as favorable. All in all, we should still have decent chances in January if the Cansips is close to being right, and that map above says it may end up right imho.

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Touched 8 in Chester at 6:00 or so. Up to a balmy 22 now.

15.7 here

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

We were busy sucking heat out the sound all night. Low here was 20. Wind stayed up all night. Water temperatures now into the high 30s/low 40s.

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

Yeah i guess. Alot of the world celebrates the holiday in warm weather in reality.

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that. Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you get seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses. But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

Some of the short range models are starting to tick a bit colder for tonight and tomorrow, Hope they are getting a clue in the coastal plain up here, I would like to believe the reggie but i don't.

My thoughts about the long term pattern and late month warm up:

At 6:46 AM EST, Littleton [Halifax Co, NC] Broadcast Media reports Snow of 2.00 Inch

Because of the Christmas shows that always show snow.

The final storm total for RIC was 4.0".