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Too bad its 15 days away.

might be 6" depending on ratios in DC

Legit lol

whoa

It's basically the CAMs and RAP against the globals, with the GFS the farthest northeast of these. Wouldn't be surprised at a compromise in which the better f-gen banding and accum axis is indeed farther southwest, while farther north and east we get several hours of pixies accumulating to an inch or two. Could certainly be wrong but my current lean is away from a complete whiff with the first system. Too soon to write off Saturday for adjustments back (a decent % of 06z EPS members still had solid snow up into parts of the metro).

Rjay last posted on November 30th so yes. Uncle hasn't posted in 3 years (i assume you mean @uncle W)

The rich get richer. And the poor get poorer. And the happy get happier. And the sad get sadder.

Yeah so for me to take any real value of this having meteorological significance I need to see statistical correlating variables, which is why I've done a lot of work around correlations and partial correlations involving ENSO states, rate of change involving the SOI, etc and found minimal forecast/predictability value for snowfall locally. I've been burned by threshold/relational things in the past (SAI being chief among them) and have since really been hesitant on overfitting data to find some grain of predictability to it.

Thank you. Seems logical. .

I mean...if we can get the ao/nao domain to start latching on to this idea....I know...way out in la la land.

Much better.

I think another thing is that we all have both recency bias and the feeling that things were better and grander in our younger years - whether it’s winters, pop music, sports teams, movies, etc. .

1pm

WB 12Z GFS Christmas temp. anomaly compared to 6Z.

What does this map show and mean? I paused my eating of crayons to try and learn something. TIA. .

I'm fine if this is a one or three day event. I don't want to see this ridge just set up and bake for weeks on end.

Around 40 for Christmas Day... so not too bad

Understandable but still wild....some big swings in the d+10 range. The left is the new GFS run. IF Alaska has a block like that, that trough likely corrects eastward. In that trough is very cold air. At 0z, the pattern was less amplified and blocky. The left has an east based NAO and a full fledged Alaskan block. As a result, the 12z GFS finds a cold front on Christmas Eve. It isn't huge, but interesting to see it parked right in the middle of the warm-up.

To 20's Christmas morning! lol That -nao is trying

More or less normal.

I’ll take a blend of euro and gfs for mby

Oh I sorry, I opened a can of worms with that question post I made earlier!

60s for Christmas Eve on the 12z GFS lol

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms. It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast. Thats been a tendency now for a few years. For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period. Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models. The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

I can confirm! .