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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
So we are going to base this Winter on the 91-20 average? I can tell you right now that will be warm. I would rather do the most recent 30-years. -
The storm in west Baltimore county is raking someone with rain.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There is a huge statistical misperception. The odds of getting warm 5/5 times is not that low. Record breaking Nino's should probably be warm realistically 65-70% of the time. -
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WB 18Z NBM thru Saturday.
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I'm like 500 feet from hunterdon co, lol. Stuff weakened a bit but should get a decent little drink.
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This is incoherent
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Is that stuff going to make it up to the city in the next few hours?
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54” winter CONFIRMED
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Yes, no one wants your garbage here. Not a soul gives a damn. This isn't a request either to stop, move on from this thread.
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This morning's lows were a bit chilly across NE MN. Upper 30's/40's. My heater even kicked on once. It works still
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What a swamp out there. Yuck ! .40 of rain today, not bad. Soil moisture back up again today. Middletown, DE (19709) Current Soil Moisture : 26.78% 24-Hour Average : 25.8% 5 Day Average : 26.0% Soil Moisture for the 0-10 cm layer Humidity 87% Wind Speed SW 7 mph Barometer 30.11 in (1019.5 mb) Dewpoint 76°F (24°C) Visibility 3.00 mi Heat Index 85°F (29°C) Last update 5 Aug 2:51 pm EDT
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations. Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014. So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters. But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations. -
no.
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NDJ and DJF mean sea level pressure anomalies off 8/1 Euro seasonal.
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None of us care here in this subforum, do your business in a DM.
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Just went for a walk it is soupy af out there. Amazing to see after an inch of rain this morning the soil and atmosphere have soaked it all up.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Hurricane Agnes replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Well good luck out west. Oddly enough, when I was out there about 25 years ago, other than there obviously being the wall of Rocky Mountains nearby and not being near a harbor, Denver reminded me of Baltimore (probably due to the extant buildings there built during a similar era as those in Baltimore). Denver has their notorious "spring snow", so that might be an adjustment . Regarding this round 2, I got side-swiped by the heaviest rain and picked up 0.35" for a total of 0.79" today. Sun is out and temp is 78 with dp an awful 77. -
Wary is ALEKS buddy from Catholic school. ALEK sent him over to another forum on a Jew hunt. Wary said he would leave if Randy reinstated his account.
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Looks like the heavy stuff is going to the west into Hunterdon County.
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Looks like western areas going to get hit hard again
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Picked up 0.25” in 10 minutes 0.67” since this morning
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We could still use some rain here. The weekend system ended up being pedestrian at best.
