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NHC forecast is now for Fay to become a hurricane in 12 hours. Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for additional convective development and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI track aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

H5 is such a mess, gonna take awhile for the models to resolve this

Definitely pretty interesting end of the week...can't rule out tropical given warm core but certainly could be looking at a hybrid type

Either ‘54 Carol on roids or go home. But seriously I’ll be tracking this like a two foot blizzard in mid winter. PLEASE give us something. Knock over a lawn chair. Anything….

Eps is further west with the northeaster compared to past run.

I will note this is still a nascent feature. It will be intermittent through this evening

The STJ will be active. Just need cold air.

It's been raining all afternoon here at least on radar - no ground truth 0.00

I mean it sure doesn't sound like it. And for me this is a 3-year view: too warm Super Nino this year, la nina the next two years=3 more warning level snow troubles for many of us, smh

Something about this game made me not pick the Ravens in Survivor pool. Saints are on the rise, and lost a heartbreaker last week. Ravens have plenty of chinks in the armor. They managed to overcome them last week with big plays despite a bunch of penalties.

Going exactly how I figured it would. 0.0"

Is there any good news for snow lovers this winter? Seems like this El Nino is just trending in the wrong direction.

Looks great under the hood and from space. Fay will be a hurricane, if not by 5pm then certainly by 11pm

Oh yeah I know. But I'm just saying--that is not the first time he's done something weird on a route that results in an INT.

Dunno about scars. There are some players that need to be shed.

ARE YOU FOOKING KIDDING ME???

Meh. Game was lost before that. Plenty of blame to go around.

Some Monken-ish calls. Henry forgotten on a short yardage critical down.

You gotta wonder whether it may take a bit to shed some of the scars from the old regime. Some defensive players have mentioned said "scars" that showed up during camp & preseason.

Well we can't blame this on Harbaugh, lol

That INT was completely on Bateman, imo. He was not where he was supposed to be--and his reaction showed it.

LOL Ravens.