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I think the NAM was first to start bringing the January ’16 mid Atlantic monster north…..

@MN Transplant you very well might be right about perception bias. However I’m not sure…I’m not talking about SWFE frontal waves. They most definitely do trend north. And we’ve benefitted from plenty of them including this last one. Yea it flipped to sleet but 6 days out most guidance was missing is completely and giving NC some huge snowstorm. However it’s been since 2000 that guidance showed a cutoff upper low to our south tha trended north significantly. I can think of a few examples where we were on the fringes and it eeked north just enough but I can’t think of a single example like this where it was cutoff down near Atlanta with a snow shown for NC 4-7 days out and it ended up hitting us. Now I know there haven’t been THAT many chances because that’s a pretty rare thing but there have been some. Meanwhile I can think of more than a handful of cutoff h5 lows projected perfectly for us at day 4-7 that ended up trending north and screwing is over to some extent. Now I know there were more opportunities but I can only think of a couple that were projected good at day 4-5 and stayed that way. March 2018 being one. So it seems going through the examples in my head the ones targeting us day 4-7 had a higher rate of trending north than ones targeting NC. It’s not that hard to go through all the examples of ones that stayed good in my head because frankly we’ve not had that many snowstorms lol. And most of the ones we did were SWFE open waves not cut off lows. It did seem NYC has had a lot more luck with storms that were supposed to jack us at day 4-5 than we’ve had with storms that were supposed to jack Raleigh to Richmond day 4-5.

Deep winter. 3.5” more last night. 78” on the ground.

Yes

Why do I wish this in some cruel way???? Lol...JK

Did you not just see the euro? One more like that an it's a blizzard

It's overdone, but it's the Srefs. What do you expect?

No

.60” on that run for here…not bad at all. If it’s real?

Records: Highs: EWR: 74 (1950) *monthly Jan high NYC: 72(1950) * tied monthly Jan high Jan 6 (07) LGA: 72 (1950) JFK: 69 (1950) Lows: EWR: 4 (1994) NYC: 2 (1871) LGA: 5 (1994) JFK: 9 (2007) Historical: 1700 - A powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest along the Cascadia Subduction zone. The estimated moment magnitude of 8.7-9.2 caused about a 1,000-kilometer rupture from mid-Vancouver Island to northern California. The ocean floor heaved upward approximately 20 feet, and with 10-20 minutes, a giant wave, 30-40 feet high, reached the shore. The earthquake caused a tsunami, which struck the coast of Japan. 1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep." 1868: The Columbia River froze in Oregon. Pedestrian traffic and sleighs were able to cross from Vancouver to Portland on the frozen river. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1887: Fort Keough, Montana: Snowflakes "as large as milk pans" fell across areas of Montana. The biggest snowflake, reportedly measured 38 cm (15 inches) by 20 cm (8 inches). (Ref. Wx.Doctor) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Ref. More Information on the Possibility of Snowflakes Being This Large 1922: WASHINGTON'S GREATEST SNOW STORM 28 INCHES The "Knickerbocker" storm immobilized the city of Washington, DC. The storm produced 28 inches of snow in 32 hours, and the heavy snow caused the roof of the Knickerbocker movie theater to collapse killing 96 persons. (David Ludlum) 1922: January 27-28th " 1922 Snowstorm - The "Knickerbocker Storm" Exactly 150 years after the "Washington and Jefferson Storm" which dropped 3 feet of snow on the region came, the deepest snow of this century to the greater Washington and Baltimore region. The snow came on the heels of a cold spell. High temperatures did not climb above freezing from the 24 through the 28th and the low temperature dipped to 11°F on the 26th. Snow began at 4:30 p.m. on the 27th and continued until just past midnight on the morning of the 29th. A record 21 inches fell in a 24-hour period on the 28th. The heavy band of snow stretched across Richmond (19 inches), Washington, DC (28 inches), and Baltimore (25 inches) immobilizing the region. Strong north to northeast winds accompanied the storm drifting snow into deep banks. Roads were blocked. Main highways were the first to open in 2 to 4 days. On the evening of the 28th, the weight of the snow became too much for the Knickerbocker Theater on 18th Street and Columbia in Northwest Washington, DC. The horrible scene was described in the Washington Post on January 29th and 30th and was reprinted in the Post on January 19, 1996 following another big snow. They described it as "the greatest disaster in Washington's History". The theater was cramped with an estimated 900 moviegoers. The roof of the theater collapsed taking the balcony down with it and crushing 98 people below to death and injuring another 158. People were pulled from the rubble for hours and bodies were pulled out for days. A small boy squeezed into small holes and between crumbled cement slabs to give those injured and trapped pain pills. From this disaster, the storm is known historically as the "Knickerbocker Storm" (David Ludlum, p. 10) 1925: New Hampshire's coldest temperature ever was recorded as Pittsburg dropped to -46°. This record was broken on 1/31/1934. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1927: The barometer reading on this date at DCA was 31.01 inches and was the record high pressure for Washington until Feb. 13,1981.(Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1935: January 28, 1935 after the snowstorm of the 23rd a long period of cold set in and the temperature plunged to a low of two below zero in Washington. Washington would not experience another subzero temperature reading for another 48 years that is not until January 1982. (p. 60 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1937: The wettest month ever in Cincinnati, Ohio, is January 1937, when 13.68 inches fell. Their average January amount is 3.00 inches of precipitation. The overabundance of precipitation over the Ohio River basin caused near-record to record flooding in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. On this day, the river gauge reached 80 feet in Cincinnati, the highest level in the city's history. The Ohio River reached 57 feet in Louisville, Kentucky, on the 27th, setting a new record by ten feet. Seventy percent of the city was underwater at that time. 1940: Amazing photographs showed thick ice on the Mississippi River at the unlikeliest of locations; Vicksburg, MS as the Deep South was in the throes of an intense cold wave. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1948: An ice Storm from Arkansas to South Carolina caused $20 million dollars damage and resulted in 30 fatalities. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1951: The worst ice storm in U.S. History struck from Texas to West Virginia through February 1st, causing $100 million in damage and 25 fatalities. Tennessee was one of the hardest-hit states, with roads remaining impassable up to 10 days after the event. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1963: The low of -34 degrees at Cynthiana, KY equaled the state record established just four days earlier at Bonnieville. (The Weather Channel) 1977: At Minneapolis the wind-chill temperature dropped to -78°F on the morning of January 28, perhaps the lowest on record in that city. The blizzard of January 1977, in and around Buffalo, New York, was so severe that winds up to 73 mph broke windows in homes, which were then quickly filled with blowing and drifting snow. (Extreme Weather p. 66, by Christopher C. Burt) The twelve inches of snow that fell in three days at Buffalo, NY would not have been big news in a city used to big snows. The Great Buffalo Blizzard started like many other snow squalls from Lake Erie, but during this storm, strong northwest winds lifted up the snow piled on frozen Lake Erie and blasted the city with it. People were trapped wherever they were, in their cars, homes, or offices. 9 people froze to death in their stranded automobiles. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Information 1978 - A paralyzing blizzard struck the Midwest. One to three feet of snow fell in Michigan, and 20 to 40 inches was reported across Indiana. Winds reached 70 mph in Michigan, and gusted above 100 mph in Ohio. The high winds produced snow drifts twenty feet high in Michigan and Indiana stranding thousands on the interstate highways. Temperatures in Ohio dropped from the 40s to near zero during the storm. (David Ludlum) 1983 - The California coast was battered by a storm which produced record high tides, thirty-two foot waves, and mudslides, causing millions of dollars damage. The storm then moved east and dumped four feet of snow on Lake Tahoe. (22nd-29th) (The Weather Channel) 1986: The Space Shuttle Challenger exploded at 11:39am EST; 73 seconds after liftoff from the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, FL on an extremely cold morning. Starting in the 20’s, the ground temperature at liftoff was 36°. Morton Thiokol recommended not launching if the liftoff temperature was below 53°. The cold was blamed for causing the O-rings on the Shuttle's external booster to fail, leading to the explosion. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A snowstorm in the northeastern U.S. produced 19 inches at Austerlitz NY and Stillwater NY. A storm in the Great Lakes Region left 16.5 inches at Marquette MI, for a total of 43 inches in six days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Snow and high winds created blizzard-like conditions in northwestern Vermont. Winds at Saint Albins gusted to 88 mph. In Alaska, the town of Cold Foot (located north of Fairbanks) reported a morning low of 75 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A winter storm spread high winds from the northwestern U.S. to Wyoming and Colorado, with heavy snow in some of the high elevations. Stevens Pass WA received 17 inches of snow, half of which fell in four hours. In extreme northwest Wyoming, Togwotee Mountain Lodge received 24 inches of snow. Winds in Colorado gusted to 90 mph at Rollinsville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: Annandale Barcroft Hills Weather Station recorded 2.20 inches rain in 24 hrs. from 27th to 28th. (Annandale Weather Records) January 27th - 28th - - - Back-to-Back "Nor'easters" pounded the Tidewater area and produced coastal flooding. ides remained higher than normal from astronomical high tides and the January 27-28 "Nor'easter". Most areas that saw 2 to 4 inches with the January 27-28 storm again saw it with the February storm. Some locations received as much as 7.5 inches of rain. The rain resulted in flooding on small streams and creeks closing numerous roads. The floodwaters eventually flowed into the main stem of the rivers, which reached bank full or minor flood levels. A woman died in Culpeper after driving her car into floodwaters. (Ref. Virginia Wx. History) Then came the February "Nor'easter". Its slow movement and gale force winds pushed the tide to 7.0 feet above Mean Lower Low Water at Norfolk, which resulted in moderate to severe flooding. The entire town of Chincoteague on the Eastern Shore was under water. Willoughby Spit was the hardest hit area in Norfolk and homes in Sandbridge and Chick's Beach were severely damaged in Virginia Beach. Inland, heavy rains fell. In the western part of the state, some high elevation counties saw one to two feet of snow in the January 27-28 storm. Thundersnow fell in Dickerson and Buchanan Counties were some people described the huge size of the snowflakes as being more like snowballs falling. Some trees and power lines came down. Power was out to 99% of Dickerson County residents. When the next storm on February 3rd began snowing, over 1000 customers were still without power. A charter bus on Interstate-81 overturned injuring 20 people. One man in Tazewell County died as a result of rescue services not being able to reach him fast enough with the heavy snow and downed trees and power lines. With the February storm came more snow and then ice. In the Allegheny Highlands, a foot or more of snow fell and winds drifted it in some areas up to 6 feet closing roads. Areas east of the highlands saw 4 to 8 inches before the snow changed to freezing rain. A man died of a heart attack shoveling g snow in Harrisonburg. Some areas got significant ice on top of the snow, causing trees to come down and, in one case, a roof to collapse. Heavy ice accumulated in the mountains with as much as 5 inches in some spots. This did incredible damage to trees. Shenandoah National Park was closed for a week while trees where removed from Skyline Drive. Thousands of trees fell and work continued into April. Damage in the park alone was $607,000. Ref. - Virginia Weather History (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Information) 2004: On this date through the 31st, a 3-day snowstorm dumped 86 inches of snow at Parish, NY located about 25 miles north of Syracuse. The temperature plummeted to -49° at Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Canada, their coldest reading in 33 years. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Montana: Rapid temperature drops occur across Montana as a cold front races through. The greatest drop is experienced at Cut Bank, MT, approximately 50 miles east of Glacier National Park, where the temperature falls from 40° F at 2 PM MST on Sunday to -14° F in the following 12 hours. By sunrise, the temperature had fallen to -20° F, representing a drop of 60 Fahrenheit degrees in 17 hours.(Ref. Wx.Doctor) 2010: Dreadful ice storm in SW OK coated exposed surfaces with ice to 1.5” thick. In Greer County, 'miles' of power lines down; almost every tree (in a county with not many trees) has “some kind of damage” with many “snapped or downed.” 180,000+ OK customers lost power (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2011: NYC: Jan 26 - 27, 2011 : 19 inches of snowfall 2015: NYC :Jan 26 , 2015 : 9.8 inches of snowfall

Cool !

Are we back?

i dont like that SE of bench cluster...need to see that break NW the next run or two

Serious ? No we dont

No

SREF’s out yet for 0z?

Let's spread the wealth and increase qpf every run. All jokes aside 1 run at happy hour isn't exactly a lock. I am going back to the 2022 thread something familiar

This was my cartoons growing up

Could be worse. Could be last night's version of Kentucky.

We need to see some serious jumps in models soon as time's ticking.

Yup..said this earlier. Get them back out there, and we’ll know where this is really going in short order.

Nahhh, too much sleet. More like 5'6"!!

Come to daddy Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Three days of sunshine and not even the roofs of the houses across the street have lost their snowcover. Normally those are the first places to melt off, almost always the day after the snow.

If forecasting the weather seven days out were as simple as looking at the Euro and calling it gospel, I wouldn’t find it nearly as compelling. The real fascination lies in the uncertainty of what might unfold.