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GFS is actually a lot colder at the surface than 6Z.

Looks a tad bit deamped with maybe a bit more confluence which honestly may give us more breathing room

I just had to do it!

Yeah I think it just doesn’t show freezing rain for some reason

GFS looks like it’ll probably hold to me - don’t quote me if I’m wrong in a few minutes.

Especially the case from Stowe north to Jay. A bit less so for southern resorts.

Icon is close enough for this range.

I am moving to the Carpinteria, CA area in early January... Any SoCal/Central Coast posters on here?

We still have a week to find our fail point. Could be any of the following: 1.) High slides offshore and we nibble away at CAD with antecedent southeast winds. 2.) Last minute de-amplification trend. 3.) Primary drives into Pittsburgh and it's just cold rain.

Freezing rain

Yes, you did. The person that MJO took that graphic from on Twitter is.

Certainly keeping one eye open being that the digital snow is showing up on a forecasted hour in the 100’s rather than 2 or 3 hundy, but the euro AI and cmc keeping it south is keeping my other eye closed..for now..

You are right considering Mark Margavage's degree curriculum only includes up to calculus 1 and just synoptic meteorology, a far cry from the standard education requirements one must achieve to call themselves a meteorologist: https://catalog.wilkes.edu//preview_program.php?catoid=13&poid=1760 https://wilkes.meritpages.com/stories/Wilkes-University-Awards-Degree-to-Mark-Margavage-of-Edwardsville-Pa-18704-/7693061 a standard meteorology path should include up to partial differential equations and a whole slew of thermodynamics and dynamics classes. 99% sure he never took any of those classes.

Usually, Not always, I want to get that out there, Its an LBS before it arrives up here and we end up with an occluded POS.

Wow that creeped up quick. But I still wouldn't worry about thermal profiles till we're withing 72 hours especially with the ICON

Gotta love the potential, but very early in the game. Happy Thanksgiving and tracking!

Actually down to 5.5–6 now. Starts Monday night to Tuesday morning.

Looks like we are going to have a old school December, Looking at guidance, I don't see anything torchy for a bit after 12/1

Looks good for being 7 to 8 days out!

I totally agree with you. That's why I blocked TT. He's such a big instigator and brings nothing to the table. I could care less about his Shyte symbols. At least we have some good things to look forward to going ahead through December.

Excellent point...tell me more please

Icon shows rain on precip depiction up to PA but has the 32 line down across DC. Decent looking track I’d take

What??? No Thanksgiving??? I’m cooking for an army so you’re welcome here!

Interesting, past times when we had a warming.

Sure. Just in time for me to go back to hauling water. But that may be a good thing. New (old) boss doesn't really want his trucks out in snowstorms. Present company isn't like that. They want you moving if it's legal and the roads aren't restricted.