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I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning the possible nor easter next week. seems like modeling is falling into line with at least he possibility of a storm.

Looks like everything got nudged SW a tad in the 1630z OTLK from SPC

Lots of negative Nellie’s…you know the crew.

Northern Maine may have a big year this year…lots of moisture could make things very nice.

Forecast the High…we know the rest.

Then there's the MECS S+ part, at least for the Mid-Atlantic. Feb 1983 and Jan 2016. So the 4 very strong El Ninos since 1950, its 50-50 for that. And for epic storms in general, the Jan 1998 "super" ZR storm NNE and srn Quebec! Also, for a more localized bonus S+ events (the one @CoastalWx could not BELIEVE occurred, esp. since he got stiffed in GHG), was the Dec 23, 1997 BOS Herald front page "THEY BLEW IT!" w/ mugs shorts of the local BOS OCMs. At most 4-8" fcst for SNE w/ a chance of mix, and it ended up 12-24" of super wet glop. The one when Ayer MA got SNOINCR 8 and it was then realized how important the DGZ temps/saturate was (watershed weenie fcst moment for @CoastalWx) That explained the MONSTA flakes and how a kind MEH sfc low could do such "KRAZEE" snowfall rates! So really from the above and what @GaWxnoted, "KEWL TYMES" ahead for the E Coast!

Seems like a pretty unorganized line in NYS, and I don’t see us here EOR clearing any; nothing more than gusty/showery front passage?

Sun is out here

may be more of a DELMARVA/NC event this go around

According to the drought monitor, most of the area is out of the official drought. It's abnormally dry still but not significant across the region. As @CAPE sort of implied, this time of year (and basically til April), soil moisture doesn't really have much of an impact on the flora of the area since it is dormant anyhow. And the low sun angle and cool temps means any soil moisture sort of just sits there until spring. The mistake you're making is assigning the "low reservoir" level to some sort of natural phenomenon. The only reason there are low reservoirs is that humans created them in the first place and sucked down too much water. We basically created our own problem. The trees in my yard don't give two shits about whether some DC reservoir is "lower than normal" (normal in this case isn't an actual thing since it isn't a natural process). The problem isn't too little rain, it's too much demand. Random anecdote. I am on well water at my primary residence in Calvert county. For the past 20yrs I've had a hardness of about 17gpg. This year all of a sudden my hardness has increased to 30gpg. I've had to buy a new softener with a higher capacity to deal with it. Maybe it's due to the drought, I have no idea. But if it is, it's not nature's fault, it's a side effect of humans tapping in to an underground aquifer.

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather.

this is just more more distraction, and no one here is disagreeing that fossil fuels have contributed to human progress, that's just more distraction please stay on topic: the continued use of fossil fuels is progressively impacting climate and ecosystems and accelerating the rate of climate change, and what we are going to do about it (hint on the second part: not much)

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Unquestionably, higher surges have occurred, even with the top 10 list given. We just don't have tide gauges dense enough or a long enough period of record, and there are very localized areas when the surge is funneled so it can get much higher than the mean (small inlets or rivers that narrow as they go inland). Ike was unique in the fact when it was at 22.7N/83.3W, it was 966 mb but "only" 65 kt winds (from recon). I think that is lowest pressure for such low winds for a HU S of 25N in the Atlantic. Standard W/PR for 966 mb is about 95 kt, but it is not one-size-fits-all. Normally you'd see such W/PR disparity much farther N where cooler SSTs, baroclinic process, and increased Coriolis decreases winds for a given pressure compared to the tropics. Ike had gone though 2 ERCs and was a rather large HU. It just goes to show the vargaries of wx phenomena.

Round 2 for Northern Maine.

Sun is out in Fairfax. Weather.gov is having connection problems - got a 500 a few minutes ago.

I can see you there in 20 yrs or so with the way your going now.

Oh you’re doing it. Doing it well.

My parents would call that peak back in the day when we lived in New Hampshire. I always thought their idea of peak was behind mine, like you, greens mixed in is good. Their take was if there was pretty much any any green its not peak. That's one of the things I like about the foliage season though it can be a little different for everyone and yet beautiful regardless. Great photos, as is tradition, and thanks to all who post in here, much appreciated.

I agree Feb has the best chance of being cooler. Most of the caving is currently in the Jan window. I would expect something closer to what the BoM ensemble depicts.

OKX point and click showing sunny for Monday and Tuesday

I'm not, we all seen the song and dance Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Don’t do it