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  2. NC_hailstorm
    The long range HRRR has snow ratios at 17 to 20 to one,it's gonna stack up.
  3. Regan
    “More and more models”
  4. MJO812
    Jeez this is insane
  5. Berlin1926
    And south-central virginia
  6. jlewis1111
    Yup def a beach storm kitty hawk up to you guys.. Congrats
  7. Ravens94
    3k
  8. WinstonSalemArlington
    Ocean temperature gradient
  9. Ravens94
    I wouldn't use the nam for precip at all at this range. It's going to move every run
  10. wncsnow
    We cant have the ULL track as far north as the NAM and RFFS show or we will get downsloped plain and simple. Luckily the Euro, GFS (somewhat) and AI models have it going in a better spot for us.
  11. weatherwiz
    Guess we'll just call this the storm that could have been. I for sure thought this was going to come up the coast days ago but totally wrong on that. dendrites post this morning illustrated why it wasn't happening and those signals with trough, dPVA, and dynamics were there the whole time to tell the story.
  12. NCSU_Pi
    What's interesting to me about RAH's last product is that the dry slot is not apparent on the 90% low end, but does seem evident on the 10% high end. As if we're either getting a broad shield or getting bombed with comparative dry slots. (IANAM, so what do I know?)
  13. GBOVolz
    Maybe they just hadn’t updated it yet .
  14. Wxbear25
    is it me, or are isopleth's overlapping here lol This is the ugliest looking thing I think I have ever seen *edit - Ok, I see it now, the 531 perfectly matches the NJ coastline and the "overlap" is just perfectly timed to when they pinch-off from one another
  15. GBOVolz
    Here’s my Accuweather forecast. (Yeah I know lol) but it’s nice to see my % isn’t that far apart. .
  16. Bob Chill
    I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads
  17. chris624wx
    18z NAM had it snowing through 21z Sunday for HR
  18. PackGrad05
    WRAL adjusted their totals. They are concerned about dry air being wedged between two maxima. They said there is a dry slot showing up on "more and more models."
  19. STORMANLI
    Hi Don, do you think that the lack of sounding data in the 6z and 18z runs might contribute to the divergent solutions?
  20. ldub23
    For now, but it trended NW
  21. bearman
    Mine went to less than an inch. Why would you issue a winter storm warning for an inch or less. It must be computer junking up their point forecast.
  22. NorthHillsWx
    It’s going to be so hard to nail that band down but you want to be close to be in the game obviously. But the potential here is high high high end stuff.
  23. wxdude64
    I'd bring a cookie pan or baking pan with you, just in case.
  24. BretWx
    Looks solid to me. Trend is the focus right now.
  25. ineedsnow
    18z 3k is in a much better spot compared to the 12k NAM at hr 60
  26. WNC_Fort
    I will say. The NAM and GRAF concern me because the precip flow seems much more North to South. I’d prefer a east to west flow for us to get any sort of good accumulation. Idk. You guys know I’ve always been iffy on this system
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