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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY... .A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible. PAZ070-071-104>106-222100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1200Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Chalfont, Doylestown, Lansdale, Philadelphia, Morrisville, Media, Perkasie, and Norristown 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 16 and 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, and Upper Bucks Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of snow possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. &&

Hopefully This won’t be the one time the Nam 3k fails on thermals

I made sure to screenshot that, the current mt holly map is a thing of beauty

Safe to say BOX has jumped in with both feet (pardon the pun) in regards to the crazy snow totals

Blizzard warnings extended inland including I-95.

Wolfie pulled it off in the end.

Current view

We will know if WB 3K NAM is correct soon. 10 am radar compared to 0Z. 10 am surface temps are colder too do to rates. Big deal

Thundersnow

WB 3K 6Z NAM zoomed snow map comparison to 0Z.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight. All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly farther west. The latter could be the difference for even higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast. Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too high through the event from start to finish. While deep-layered lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together, expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches from the last forecast. On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned higher ratios. Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more westward track. The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is very much in line with the current forecast. However, a reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. While the highest totals are expected along the coast, heavier bands of snow (strong frontogenetic forcing) can rotate inland and usually on the cold air side of the best forcing. These bands are ofter a challenge to forecast and often leads to localized higher amounts. Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will develop this morning, mainly from NYC and points west. This initially is associated with an inverted trough extending back to the NW across the lower Great Lakes. In fact, as the coastal low deepens later today, there may even be some drying out at the leading edge of the precipitation shield. It may take until this early this evening for steadier snow to arrive at the coast and then overspread the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow will occur during the overnight hours with 1-2"/hr rates and at times as high 3"+/hr. The bulk of the snow will come from 7 pm this evening to 7 am Monday. Snow this heavy combined with strong winds will result in whiteout conditions. Visibilities are expected to be below 1/4 mile for much of this time. Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning within the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday afternoon. There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier banding tonight into Monday morning. While not included in the forecast, it cannot be ruled out. Winds will be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but should see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur tonight into the first half of Monday. The blizzard warnings were expanded to include Orange and Putnam counties in the Lower Hudson valley due higher confidence in considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility.

WB 6Z 3K NAM gives more moisture to western burbs than 0Z.

MQS range between HRRR and NAM is identical to our upgraded winter storm warning of 16-22”. Sounds like a solid call at the moment. Now just gotta pull the trigger on the blizzard warning - make it official. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY... .A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible. Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Including the cities of Oxford, Honey Brook, West Chester, Collegeville, Pottstown, and Kennett Square 256 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 16 and 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

It composes of the current (no lag like the NBM) cycles of the HRRR, WRF-NSSL, WRF-ARW, FV3, and NAM 3km models (00z cycles)... So only the high-resolution stuff.

Regarding the above NAM snow maps (Mitch vs Ji), one is Kuchera and the other is 10:1

Noise. Overall, the whole evolution has grown more impressive incrementally over time. Speaking only about the rgem. Bigtime event inbound.

What should I be paying attention to on mesoanalysis website for hints of where the inverted trough might show up? I'm going all in hoping to get inverted trough vs ccb band. The slant wise convection in that ccb is insane on the models. Which means there is going to be an area somewhere in this viewing area whose going to be have flurries for hours on end while 40:miles either direction is getting smoked. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Track seems further SE than other models... Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk

6z not reduced much....

Its struggling. Less snow than the last run.

Brooklyn

00z HREF. Sum the two to get your total:

Lol. You just can't stop can you? What is wrong with you? The 2 major metro areas, Baltimore and DC, went from 12.9" to 8.3" and 9.1" to 6.7" respectively. That's not cherry picking.

RGEM not as crazy as I thought it could have been but that was jet fuel at 500mb.

2+ feet at 10:1 will work