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12Z GFS is a nice hit. And then factoring in the 20:1 mentions in this morning's discussion. Would be a solid one.

GFS w 2' of snow at RDU by 93

I finally got to my analysis of Baltimore temp anomalies during Feb La Niña phase 1 since 1975 and I even added the results for the surrounding phases 8 and 2. Before I get to those, I also looked at La Niña Febs in general there, which averaged mild (intuitive). That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. There have been 20 La Niña Febs since 1975. The coldest anomaly was only -2 (2022) with next coldest of -1 (2021, 2006, and 1996). In contrast, the warmest was +8 (2023 and 2017) followed by +7 (1976) and +5 (2018, 2012, and 1984). The 20 averaged +2.3. So, any Feb Niña phase that’s NN would be relatively cold. ————— Here are the results for phases 8, 1, and 2 at Baltimore: Phase 8: 17 periods MB 0 B 6 N 4 A 3 MA 4 Avg: +44/61 days = +0.7 So, phase 8 was NN, which is 1.6 colder than the +2.3 average of all Feb Niña days. So phase 8 has been relatively cold. I suspect that this may come out as the coldest Niña Feb phase but I’d need a lot of time to go through the #s of the remaining phases to confirm that. The only phase with a decent chance to be colder than 8 is phase 3. So, that would be the next phase I’d calculate if I get time. ————— Phase 1: 16 periods MB 3 B 2 N 4 A 2 MA 5 Avg: +134 /52 days = +2.6 So, though it averaged a bit mild, that +2.6 was very close to the overall +2.3 avg for all Niña Feb days. ————— Phase 2: 18 periods MB 1 B 1 N 6 A 4 MA 6 Avg: +296/68 days = +4.4 —————— So, in summary for phases 8, 1, and 2: phase 2 is easily the true mild phase in all senses as its +4.4 is 2.1 warmer than even the +2.3 overall avg for all Niña Feb days. Phase 1 is in the middle with its +2.6 and phase 8 is the coldest with only +0.7.

GFS is going to be a big hit, but again, I would tread with caution given the complexity of the interaction as the low bombs out and consolidated

Wow! The piles down here in CT are impressive.

Monster GFS run again. For central and eastern NC

then we may not know for another couple days-alot of time you see a correction west when they chase convection

Heavy snow getting to the eastern Triad

Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable.

Yeah, I'm still giving it one more day but agree we're running out of time

It’s going to end up a tad worse than 06z. The trough axis is a tick further East.

I’d chase it if I didn’t have an appt I need to be at Monday morning.

I would be really surprised if we get much, if anything from this....Sometimes things have that look, maybe a few days ago this one did. At this point it just seems like once we get closer to go time, this storm will consolidate further off shore. Carolinas, maybe even the Delmarva region. Cape region still has a shot, but out here, meh

Yup…more suppression up here in advance.

My gut says this is a fringe or miss. Too many moving pieces and opportunity to not come together for a big hit.

Heights are getting compressed over the NE

Changes mostly noise I think, which is good because it continues to be on the amplified end of the spectrum

Death band over Raleigh at hour 90

OP GFS gonna be east too.

Most models are chasing that convection

Yeah, looks solid for them. Rather they get it then up north for sure.

ive never seen a 986 low here with no NW precip shield so frustrating. worst hobby

All these models are chasing convection out east. GFS is not gonna work either. I'll give it until Tommorow before I back out. But not looking good right now