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The 00z ECMWF still has a stark 700-300 mb RH gradient early on that just intensifies as it heads N. The pattern/structure at 108 hr for this parameter looks more like a baroclinic leaf than anything. It dependents it to 998 mb, 9 nm weaker than the 00z, which is in line w/ the 1992 and 1994 early Oct events as to am ET low development in the Gulf making landfall. The HAFS is much deeper, but also look at its 700-300 mb RH fcst (attached). That configuration strongly suggests a frontal structure and baroclinic leaf. I would find it hard to believe it could drop into the 970s from largely baroclinic forcing. The deepest ET low in the Gulf ion record s 980 mb from the Bliz of 1993 and that had unreal baroclinic support!

Low off 34 degrees this morning. Last fishing event for the year. Father Son event. Got about 10 mile run this morning on the water.

00z GFS was much more realistic with the progression of this system and the synoptic setup. Though it does still bring the TC to hurricane status in the southern and central GOM, significant weakening occurs by landfall due to all the aforementioned issues discussed previously.

Temp down to 45 degrees.

they jumped on me too, they're sweet little critters

That much snow already made on Whiteface Mtn trails? https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19m3Gzn9Z8/ It did snow: https://www.instagram.com/p/DeH8zc0ylm9/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=embed_video_watch_again But is that FB image current?

They suck. Invasive bastards that will jump on you for no reason at all. They also love the tree of heaven, which is an invasive plant that outcompetes native plants. I got rid of the tree of heaven in my side yard this spring, and after having tons of lanternflies last year I now have none.

Well if you hate that…you’ll absolutely loathe this

0Z UKMET: landfall ~175 miles W of 12Z run with it near far SE LA and then MS. Strongest run yet with high end TS/990 mb: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.2N 92.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2026 60 22.7N 91.7W 1003 30 0000UTC 09.10.2026 72 22.9N 89.9W 1001 30 1200UTC 09.10.2026 84 25.4N 88.6W 999 39 0000UTC 10.10.2026 96 26.4N 88.5W 997 48 1200UTC 10.10.2026 108 29.2N 88.7W 990 58 0000UTC 11.10.2026 120 32.1N 89.5W 992 29 1200UTC 11.10.2026 132 33.8N 88.8W 1002 25 0000UTC 12.10.2026 144 38.4N 83.2W 1003 12 1200UTC 12.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

And "one more hour of cooling so it can snow easier!" You actually see this nonsense posted. Some are trolling but some actually believe it. I see the same thing for svr wx. Extra hour of heating after late March in the Plains!

55/38. Coldest so far this season is 50.7, forecast is 47...not sure we get there...

What’s your elevation?

But doesn't apply to those in SON, there is a fire sale of them . Getting the first real frost of the season, 1C/33F incoming .

Given the fcst 850-200 mb wind shear over the northern Gulf is fcst in excess of 50 kt and how the global models depict the storm structure, I have a tough time thinking this can sustain a tropical status once farther N. Sfc winds E of the center will likely get quite strong, but due to baroclinic deepening. If this were a well-established strong TC already, I would not be as concerned about the shear here. Here are two storms in early Oct 1992 and 1994 that fit this scenario. The 1992 event deepened to 996 mb and and 1994 to 1000 mb from baroclinic processes.

Winds blasting the tin roof with acorns tonight Also friendly reminder clocks roll back an hour on Halloween so we get the models an hour earlier Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

GREAT! Headin' right back to another Royal Caribbean ship for a vacay.