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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1998 couldn't get a snowstorm because the pacific jet would not allow enough cold to build in canada. this event is even more unfavorable than that one -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
none of the east coast storms will be cold enough for snow -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's also important not to be too dialectical in our thought process, as it's human instinct to focus on snow/rain as binary events, but the truth is that in all likelihood they often won't be this season. Several 2-5"ers followed by IP and rain still counts towards the seasonal total. -
I was up there in January, 2025 when It was -5 with about 10" on the ground. It was awesome.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That would make sense to me and is consistent with my forecast.....RONI should still lag in the seasonal mean by around .2 to .4, but may get closer than that late. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Once we see that subsurface cool pool out in the W pac upwell some more (probably sometime later this winter), we could see RONI catch up to ONI. -
Then later that month, we had the snow event with some more tree damage. That was a great month of Phil. October 2021 had the epic wind event. We need to make October great again.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree about the HR hitter coming to bat, but I don't think we can rule out other light or moderate chances with the advertised precip anomalies on all modeling. -
There was some damage up here near the border, Enfield/Suffield/Granby area. I recall a burst of strong winds. We were right on the edge.
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I was just thinking about this yesterday. I'm glad someone started this thread. My favorite thread! Smuggs, Burke, Berkshire East and Catamount all owned by Bear Den partners now. Should be interesting to see what they do with Smuggs going forward.
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I will put this Sunday's rain on the tropical system though. I know by the time it reaches us, it will just be a low pressure system on a front, but it is still bring up tropical moisture.
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2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Tyler Penland replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some. -
Ya…was gonna say, I have no recollection of that. But then I saw what you wrote about it being a Mass special.
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I remember doing a similar thing here in VA. I was cutting shooting lanes before deer season in mid September 2009 a little late for that but I was 20 and stupid lol. I was fussing about the lack of cold and snow, during fall and winter. Though I was also glad because I had just enlisted in The Marines, and it gave me some more time to train before I got to Paris Island in March…and we all know how 09-10 went. Haha
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Yes, that is precisely what I was intimating in my write-up.
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2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
I hope so. You'd think it would push it more eastward. -
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Yea we got crushed here. One swath went through my hood about quarter mile away. Another swath about a mile away that had big boy damage.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A big question going forward is what does the future relationship look like in regard to the equatorial trade winds vs WWBs following such an enormous warm pool push from the WPAC to EPAC?
