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Phase 8 will need to deliver the goods

Yeah, we got about .75 the 5th and 6th but nothing since. Of course we had some super soakers back in March but my memory doesn't work that far back anymore lol. Hope you're feeling better

April 17 1965: The Mississippi River at St. Paul has a record crest, 4 feet above the previous record. High water records would be set all the way down to Missouri in later days. For Friday, April 17, 2026 1922 - A family of at least six tornadoes caused death and destruction along parts of a 210 mile path from north of Ogden IL to Allen County OH, killing sixteen persons. A post card, picked up in Madison County IN, was found 124 miles away near Mount Cory OH. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - One of the few severe hailstorms accompanied by snow, sleet, glaze, and rain, pelted parts of Kay, Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Washington, and Rogers Counties in northeastern Oklahoma late in the day. Nearly 10,000 insurance claims were filed. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - The Mississippi River reached a flood crest at Saint Paul MN four feet higher than any previous mark. During the next two weeks record levels were reached along the Mississippi between Saint Paul and Hannibal MO. Flooding caused more than 100 million dollars damage, but timely warnings kept the death toll down to just twelve persons. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Twenty-two cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the High Plains Region to the Mississippi Valley, with readings in the low 90s reported in the Southern Plains Region. Tulsa OK hit 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Heavy snow blanketed northern Arizona. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Pinetop, with 10 inches reported at Flagstaff. Afternoon thunderstorms spawned a couple of tornadoes in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Missoula MT was blanketed with four inches of snow, and Glasgow MT reported a record cold morning low of 14 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - High winds in northern Utah, gusting to 90 mph in Weber County, blew a trampoline through a living room window, and strong winds associated with a cold front crossing the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 75 mph in the Chesapeake Bay area of Virginia. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Valentine NE was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 10 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Top 10 crests at St. Paul: 1. 26.01 ft on 04-16-1965 2. 24.52 ft on 04-15-1969 3. 23.76 ft on 04-18-2001 4. 23.20 ft on 04-30-2001 5. 22.37 ft on 04-13-1997 6. 22.02 ft on 04-16-1952 7. 20.19 ft on 03-31-2019 8. 20.17 ft on 06-29-2024 (P) 9. 20.13 ft on 06-26-2014 10. 19.15 ft on 06-26-1993

The KW is about to emerge on the South American coast. The models are showing it developing as an east-based/East Pacific event. Then we will have to see if it stays east-based or becomes basin-wide: Research shows that +PMM El Nino’s strongly support east-based events. We have a very strong (record strong actually) +PMM this year: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” ^Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution. +PMM:

It seems like relative to every pattern ... results are + Whether it is .001 of a single degree F, or +10 Fs, +'s are sort of a baked in ( no pun intended ) consequence of being in a +d(C) where C denotes climate. But it's not just temperature? seriously...I see something subtle in the circumstances, too. Today is a perfect example. Right now, it is 69 F here... we are about to go above 70 F. Yet, looking at the satellite and WPC's surface synopsis, this appears to be a backside cyclone scenario. The strata entrails and scuddies are moving NE-SW... and there's regions of pancaking coming d-slope and evaporating as they come. Meanwhile, the main/real polar boundary is situated up in S Canada. I don't recall ever seeing cyclone mechanics closed off like this, INSIDE a warm sector. Much less... in April These are odd circumstances. These kind of idiosyncratic things... I just have an Aspergery kind of memory about weather situations since I was apparently designated by birth to waste a life with a Meteorological talent that will provide nothing for anyone ha ( I'm like the Michigan Jay Frog of weather minutia ). Anyway, I keep having to step back over this shit and go, "what in the f is happening here". Things are just behaving differently ...whether it shows up in the thermometers or not. And they're just under the radar, too subtle for most to even be aware... for one thing, who the fuck is complaining or getting spooked by 70 on April 17 in a "cold sector" behind a cyclone inside a warm sector ... Too nice to care. It's just unknowable to them.

Hoping we do get 3 or 4 hours below freezing Tuesday AM to kill of some of the black flies that are already buzzing around. Seems like the years that we do get a nice Mid-April freeze after the first hatchings, we then have significantly fewer black flies for the rest of the season.

You should have done pretty good last night right?

That appears to be his total up top which I pulled from the 2023 burbs thread.

Picked up .06" rainfall with a quick moving t-shower around 10:00 last evening. Places west and NW of here did better with greater than .25". We'll see how much we can add on Sunday. Heat was nice but a bit much for mid April. Looking forward to a cool down but could do without the cold mornings upcoming early next week. On the other hand will be nice to sleep with the windows cracked open again.

Not a drop of rain for me last night

Well this was quite the surprise to see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

The 5+ is centered pretty far west (140-160 W, which is west central 3.4. Hoping that’s a sign that El Niño will be center to west based like Cansips suggests and not east based like NMME shows.

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

They were legit thunderstorms. Was turkey hunting when they went by decent amount of thunder and lightning

It's like Quantum Mechanics sent particles back in time to excoriate you for your arrogant pop off, "we're going to be saying a lot of GWDLs next week."

6z Euro AI goes wild April 27th

Mmm... slow down there,

That would be a giant FU

We'll see how the cuttoff trough establishes

Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2002) NYC: 96 (2002) LGA: 94 (2002) JFK: 90 (2002) Lows: EWR: 30 (1980) NYC: 27 (1875) LGA: 32 (1980) JFK: 33 (1980) Historical: 1821: The Massachusetts’ legislature could not open due to 18 inches of snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1875: The minimum temperature for the date is 26°F in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1920: Snow fell across Denver, CO continuously for 57 hours; from early morning on the 17th until midday on the 19th. The heavy wet snow totaled 18.2 inches with the greatest accumulation on the ground of a foot. At times winds gusted to near 50 mph creating near blizzard conditions. The strong winds created high drifts halting auto and rail traffic. Many people were stranded. No lives were lost in Denver but several people perished in surrounding districts. Temperatures didn't make it out of the 20s. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1922 — A family of at least six tornadoes caused death and destruction along parts of a 210 mile path from north of Ogden IL to Allen County OH, killing sixteen persons. A post card, picked up in Madison County IN, was found 124 miles away near Mount Cory OH. (The Weather Channel) 1942: West Palm Beach, FL was soaked by 8.35 inches of rain in just two hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1953 — One of the few severe hailstorms accompanied by snow, sleet, glaze, and rain, pelted parts of Kay, Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Washington, and Rogers Counties in northeastern Oklahoma late in the day. Nearly 10,000 insurance claims were filed. (The Weather Channel) 1965 — The Mississippi River reached a flood crest at Saint Paul MN four feet higher than any previous mark. During the next two weeks record levels were reached along the Mississippi between Saint Paul and Hannibal MO. Flooding caused more than 100 million dollars damage, but timely warnings kept the death toll down to just twelve persons. (David Ludlum) 1970: After 10 p.m. near Cotton Center, TX, an F4 tornado “smashed flat as a pancake” a pickup; 2 people killed. Up to 6 blocks wide, it later hurt 40, caused $4.5 million damage in Plainview. It was hidden from view by fog, lack of lightning, and little accompanying noise. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1983: Burlington, VT picked up 15.6 inches of snow to set an April record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984: A spring storm left snow across much of the central portion of Iowa. The greatest concentration of snow was in an 80-mile wide band from Monona County southeast to Des Moines and Knoxville. Four to six inches were common in this band but the greatest amount of 8 inches occurred in Des Moines. Temperatures hovering near the freezing mark prevented large accumulations on the road. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 — Twenty-two cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the High Plains Region to the Mississippi Valley, with readings in the low 90s reported in the Southern Plains Region. Tulsa OK hit 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 — Heavy snow blanketed northern Arizona. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Pinetop, with 10 inches reported at Flagstaff. Afternoon thunderstorms spawned a couple of tornadoes in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 — Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Missoula MT was blanketed with four inches of snow, and Glasgow MT reported a record cold morning low of 14 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 — High winds in northern Utah, gusting to 90 mph in Weber County, blew a trampoline through a living room window, and strong winds associated with a cold front crossing the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 75 mph in the Chesapeake Bay area of Virginia. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Valentine NE was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 10 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994: Record Alaska cold -39°F in Umiat, -32°F in Prudhoe Bay are the coldest ever for so late in the year; +2° in Fairbanks is the coldest so late since 1972. (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac) 2002: The heat wave continued across the east as high pressure off the Carolina blocked a frontal boundary across the Plains. Records for the date included: Newark, NJ: 97°, NYC Central Park: 96°, Hartford, CT: 95°, Philadelphia, PA: 95°, Reagan National Airport, DC: 95 (Tied monthly high), Lynchburg, VA: 94°, Atlantic City, NJ: 94, Islip, NY: 94°, Concord, NH: 94°, Norfolk, VA: 93°, Dulles Airport, VA: 93° (April Record), Baltimore (BWI), MD: 93°, Providence, RI: 93°, Boston, MA: 93°, Salisbury, MD: 92°, Wallops Island, VA: 91°, Harrisburg, VA: 91°, Williamsport, PA: 91°, Albany, NY: 91°, Worcester, MA: 90°, Burlington, VT: 90°, Syracuse, NY: 89°, Bridgeport, CT: 89°, Binghamton, NY: 86° and Portland, ME: 80°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

There will be a lot of that for folks along the coasts . When you get cold SST’s their springs are not good

3.1" for me, my notes say "heavy snow during the morning and early afternoon but temp of 33, melts mostly on contact"

This happens every spring. A few folks get all worried about cold and rain and no warmth and it ends up a lot of sunny dry, warm afternoons

Thanks, Yaakov. Hoping the AZ forecast busts way too high as I’d like a quieter ACE for a change.

Late april into the first week of May looks like the Final Boss of spring misery in new england. See 6z euro AIFS Hosting a party on May 3rd, so we hope that doesn't pan out.