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It will be a universal miss. Not doom casting but precip chasing cold. We know better.

Have you ever tried it?.

We got our severe thunderstorm watch at 210 and it was stamped at 220,something was off

Surface temps are pushing 80 which primes the Valley. Storms coming in from Middle Tennessee have meant business. We'll see how they hold across the Plateau. Not much action yet in North Mississippi. I believe it's a local area of subsidence (or at least less rising) in the wake of the Tennessee stuff. Another upper wave lurks, making quick progress from the Ark-La-Tex. Good thing the low levels are veered off all crazy. If those winds were backed and/or had better convergence on a mesoscale boundary it'd be trouble. As it is, just the synoptic front and its orientation should favor mainly straight-line wind. The hatched 2% remains valid and legit. Still this is mainly gonna be straight wind. No chase plans.

KLYH hit 88 degrees at 3:30 Wild.

RDU up to 89, can they make it to 90? Probably have about 30 min left to do it

trying to figure out if i need to cancel an early evening gathering at church—is the line of rain and possibly a few storms in the Eastern Panhandle right now likely to be all there is in our tornado watch box, or is there more behind it?

Looks about right.

I know some people doing research w/ lake-breeze fronts and their influence on CI, this could be really useful for a case study

And suddenly it's raining. Wasn't expecting any precip until after 10pm.

counterpoint: do some posts about every model run

thread would be 3 pages already in january

funnily enough, we did almost exactly the same thing. Got to Pontiac well before CI, hung out for a while and watched as that cell came up from the SW, went west of town and chased it through town. Didn't see the ground circulation on the touchdown, but wow that was some incredible motion on the wall cloud. Thought for sure it'd drop something big. Followed it east to Emington, and then the people I was chasing with wanted to head west, waiting for the Peoria cells to pop off. After getting back to Pontiac, we saw that cell really ramp back up on radar and absolutely booked it east, intercepting near Wichert IL, except by that point it was completely rain-wrapped, and we couldn't get ahead of it, so just followed it a few miles to the south until we finally got a couple miles east, where we saw the Wheatfield and Knox tornadoes. So no, missed the big Kankakee tor and mega-hail. Also missed the Lake Village tor (although we almost drove into it)

Does have the makings of a Rockford to Waukegan line and north special. I’ll enjoy by backside wind whipped inch

Latest HRRR has definitely beefed up since 12z. Watauga, Ashe/Allegheny counties, verbatim heavy snow. 10am-1pm timeframe.

EWR shot from 68 to 80 in an hour

Fun footnote from last night storms: SBN on the northwest side of South Bend gusted to 60 mph as the supercell collapsed south of the city.

Wanna see a tornado watch and a wwa

Did you get a long video? It would be so cool to see that sped up a few times. Classic RFD wrap-up.

Will have to keep an eye on those storms in north central wv

HRRR good for an inch or two, could be a sneaky slick Friday AM commute with residual moisture freezing up

IAD has peaked at 86F so far!

Going to be cold tomorrow when it’s snowing on the wreckage of my house after our tornadoes this evening

'A' for me in Wrentham, MA. If we got significant snow one month earlier, or if it was a little snowier, it'd be an A+. It was a little dry when I prefer snow the most. Otherwise, can't complain about two 18"+ snowstorms w/lots of cold.

It was only 1-2 inches deep on average where it landed directly, but flood waters washed it into these thick deposits in low laying areas. The temperature was also only in the 30s so it didn’t have time to melt. It just floated down the streets and collected. I think the skew-t would show some incredible temperature inversions north of the front last night. Wind and pressure time series would also be cool to see where downdrafts generated gravity waves. The wind shifts were on the order of 30 mph one direction, then 30 mph the opposite direction. Easy to confuse with rotation couplets. There were some in the Chicago area too with the initial elevated supercell there.