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  2. forkyfork
    says the person doing exxon's work for free
  3. TriPol
    This is a huge downgrade. The NBM has been awful!
  4. LakePaste25
    RONI vs ONI are not important to me this year because both are well above the threshold for super on the daily index, and will be for the 3 month index eventually. for records, I only care about absolute SSTs. similar to how we measure record heatwaves based on setting the absolute temperature of say, 105 degrees, not the “record anomaly.” We are currently above record SSTs in the 3.4 region.
  5. SEwakenosnowforu
    Just under an inch and still moderate rain...about time!
  6. forkyfork
    wait, so this is the least appropriate type of enso event for using RONI? lol
  7. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the arrival of spring warmth is coming earlier while the date of the last freeze has held more steady over time.
  8. bluewave
    The Euro was fairly close this month. It had forecast a global mean average temperature of 1.67 C in September. The September average came in a +1.63 C.
  9. nycwinter
    beautiful day cool enough to wear a hoodie a gentle breeze my kind of weather..
  10. JTA66
    The first stink bug of the season has made its appearance.
  11. Weather Will
    Let's see how the Northern Hemisphere snow/ice map looks by November....
  12. bluewave
    The original paper that RONI is based on discusses it mostly being developed to prevent weak La Nina’s from getting lost in the mix rather than some deficiency in measuring super El Niño events. So the ONI and the absolute SSTs are a good measure of how intense this event is becoming. My original ONI post was correct as the original ONIs we relied on for many years into the 2010s had the ONI with the 1972-1973 event peaking at the +2.0 to +2.1 range. So a lower end super El Niño event.
  13. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    PDO rose to -0.74 for Sept,i thought for sure it wouldnt budge much as much as the oceans has been warming lately
  14. Brewbeer
    100%. the touch up paint arrived, the Camry is first:
  15. Today
  16. cbmclean
    0.92" in Wilson. Radar looked anemic but it was a pleasant surprise IMBY.
  17. strongwxnc
    Always weary of any super Uber hype. .
  18. Jrlg1181
    A question that I had to ask myself the entire summer down here..
  19. Orange county
    Garner with over an inch of rain so far this afternoon Zero runoff in the little ditch on the edge of my property I mean things were dry
  20. cbmclean
    It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.
  21. Snowacane
    I wonder if it will really rain
  22. nw baltimore wx
    .08”
  23. jaxjagman
    Do you never not get rain?..lol.
  24. TriPol
    Wineries in the mid atlantic got hit hard from the frost. it's been a total disaster for them with over 75% crop loss.
  25. IrishRob17
    Yeah, that’s a big problem around here. From what I understand many of the crops themselves are insured but the lost revenue from all the agritainment is not.
  26. GaWx
    Here I’ve been getting rain since 12:45PM moving NE with some of it very heavy. This is in addition to a quick shower this morning and moderate rain (few tenths) late yest. afternoon from popups. It appears I’ve received 1.5”+ from all of this with most of it just since 12:45PM. This compares to ~2.55” for all of Sep!
  27. SACRUS
    74 / 45 hovering in between clouds and sun just north much jore sunny
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