All Activity

Maybe we'll get a surprise -nao for the Winter. It's felt cool lately, in Sept I had 3 straight nights in the 40s and an early end to Summer locally for the 3rd straight year. I keep saying, hard to believe it can't cool down 30 more degrees for the Winter. The last 2 years had these late Summer/Sept patterns too, and they got cold for the Winter. With the east-based Nino/-PDO completely unfavorable for cold, I keep thinking where would it come from? Maybe the NAO?

Heading to the Adirondacks tonight and tomorrow...Expecting foliage to be approaching peak in some spots.

September numbers Avg max: 65.1 -2.7 Warmest, 74 on the 10th. That's our lowest monthly Sept max; previous was 76 in multiple Septs. Avg. min: 45.3 -0.5 Coolest, 30 on the 24th Mean: 53.2 -1.6 Coolest Sept since 2019. Precip: 3.06" -0.61" Wettest day, 0.99" on the 28th. The long-duration storm on 27-29 totaled 1.75". Other than the above storm, September was an unremarkable month. No strong wind, no thunder, no real heat, no real drama. The precip deficit since the end of June had brought the Sandy River down to the lowest 5% of its records for September 26th, data since 1929, and the 1.75" barely moved the flow to the 25th percentile. That said, fall colors came about a week earlier than average and the reds are as good as it gets. Other colors, yellows and the maroon ash, are good as well.

In Minnesota too. Should be a blowout.

Tulsa, OK, was 84.3 F in Sep ‘26, which was in addition to being 10.1 warmer than the longterm Sep mean: - 2.4 warmer than its 2nd warmest Sep - 1.4 warmer than its longterm mean for July - warmer than 69% of Julys, 74% of Augusts, and 98% of Junes on record @donsutherland1

Looks like a stretch of frost/freeze potential coming up. DLH will stop issuing these at some point as growing season is over.

Enjoy it for now. It's gone after tomorrow.

the NAM3K jumped on board with the euro

Yeah we are going to lose December. The question is what happens after that.

Practicing for winter. Ukie ensembles.

Drought monitor claims the recent rain had no impact in NH. My totals at home are: May 7.37” June 3.62” July 2.75” August 3.26” September 5.87” Total 22.87” Is just under two feet of rain low?

Where are people getting these sunny forecasts from these past few days? Was always going to be clouds rolling in

Still cloud free but will probably be BKN/OVC within an hour. Goodbye warm season. See you again on 12/24.

Can you find an underpass to get under?

All week forecasts have had partly / mostly sunny and all week has been mostly ass. Not specifically the Wrys and Crew , just in general.

In part due to moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, Lincoln, NE set an all-time daily precipitation record yesterday with 6.15" of rain. The old record had stood for more than a century.

We had mostly cloudy for the day.

Yeah it really likes the overnight Friday Into Saturday rain. Kinda the only model showing that. Not even AI is as enthusiastic. Yeah it really led the way on the nor’easter.

If the Phils win tonight and advance it will ease my brain from the Birds lackluster performance and the Flyers getting throttled last night. If they lose, a total all around shitty sports week in Philly...utter failure.

No hurricanes seems to be increasingly likely, but as for activity, the Gulf is starting to light up a bit on AI ensemble guidance.

From the bottom of the barrel, the Icon ensembles.

we got the old unmanned fire hose across the continent. these guidance are flip flopping the jet and wave train because they're missing underpinning planetary wave signal. It's like all S/Ws and no L/W. without the L/W rail system, the S/W train slips off the tracks on ever model run.. heh

As we are now in October and with absolutely nothing showing in any modeling, I am folding. For the first time this year I think the odds of not getting a hurricane exceed the odds of seeing a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. I'm going 60/40 odds (no hurricane/hurricane) at this point with only a CAG system as the realistic most likely chance to break the streak. Unbelievable

Kind of surprised SPC doesn't have general thunder extending into the Northeast tomorrow

Radar looking like we may get trained on today. Ready 2 drown.