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It's just overrunning that unusually further south.

Beyond D7-8 but inside of that they've tended to get the pattern theme close. I'd feel pretty good now in the SE in that window from the 14th-20th. It may carry past that because I believe the +PNA will hold longer than currently modeled. We will eventually go to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER but that might not be til like the 27th or 28th despite what ensembles try to show.

Cuz the GEFS has been so stellar lately. Laughable.

I don't think I've ever seen that before. Maybe the models are hallucinating.

Same in Greenfield.

Per Eric Webb just now, the anticipation is still strong: “This is just insane to see. Absolute monster westerly wind burst in the tropical West Pacific”

Car reads 59.

Corresponds with the persistent cloud cover over the east end. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

it was college...i had like 4 dollars at any one time...probably natty light but still glorious

39°, can I hit 40?

It's 46 by you? I haven't even got 40 yet lol

Low to mid 50's in Allentown, but only 46 in my backyard. Wish it was sunnier, but we're mostly cloudy here.

3.1" Monday night here in Charlotte and 3.2" last night. On an off flurries and light snow today. Nice winter day.

If we can get some more blocking in the northeast that would be even better.

slight and marginal risk issued for friday should also get decent amount of heavy rain with marginal and slight out for excessive rainfall too

Booked a ski trip to Vermont after MLK Day so expect an I-95 special around 1/20-1/23. That’s how it works, right?

The 12z EPS and GEPS are cold. The GEPS is next level and probably has some usual cold bias in play. The usually warm EPS...is picking up a very cold signal after the 20th as is the GEPS. Remember, "normal" gets it done at this time of year. I think the sharp cooling by ensembles might be driven by the NAO. My short warmup after the 21s might be in trouble. All ensembles are signaling a gradient pattern incoming.

True... And this has pretty much been expected mid next week. But after that, it's pretty clear that things are changing. And it seems that most models are on board with the transition back to a colder and hopefully, fingers crossed, snowier regime.

Inside 10 days, that’s a heck of a look at 500mb. You can see the trough dig and take on a neutral tilt in the run. I really wish we weren’t stepping down from a blow torch because this would be money. We’d need more digging and time for it to go negative, which is doable, but likely this will be a close miss. .

58.6 under thick clouds here.

There was a small uptick over 0z in ensemble snowfall, albeit meager. It's better than going the other way.

Snow globe shaken in Boston. Big fluffy flakes floating upwards by the office window

Great snow growth and grass whitening now in Boston Fenway area... And forecasts definitely busted a few degrees too warm this morning with continuing northerly drain in place As much as we continue to be starved for a meaty storm, at least this winter has given decent vibes with persistent cold and some white

I am a true believer that the MJO is the primary driver. It overwhelms the other indices....it is ruining our January chances this year.

I’m up to 34, skies brightening and melting starting…