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It’s all guidance at 12z.

Cold front passed through the area earlier this afternoon, with (convective) rain showers accompanying it, which helped to transport higher winds down to the surface. Peak wind gusts of 48MPH at ORD, 52MPH at MDW, and 41MPH at RFD.

Solid sunset a short time ago at ORD…

It’s like no one is allowed to enjoy the potential snow Tuesday because an op run shows a day of 38 rain on the 26th. Wild

Well you know, we gotta have the stoking of the fire. And then the nellies chime in etc etc…it’s how it goes around here unfortunately. Xmas is a week out, but yet we have folks telling us what it’s gonna do on Xmas already.

he's been saying this for days now. the storms crashing into the west coast are giving sf some rain lmao. utah, colorado, idaho, wyoming resorts are torched and dry as a bone

When it's deep -PNA like this, I don't even look at models for snow. Strong +EPO too. 98% of the time threats at Day 8+ don't pan out or are warm. While the OP may sometimes show a winter storm, the ensemble mean never really even has a trough.

7 days out…op runs…might as well be a month out. This morning the runs looked great. 12z not so much. Gonna waffle…especially in this type of set up. Gonna be all over the place the next few days.

Why does anyone care what op runs show past day 3-5?

Tomorrow/Friday looks more concerning from a fire weather perspective than Wed, with lower RHs than the previous wind event, higher gust forecasts, and a much larger areal coverage of RFWs.

Out of the next 14 days, a handful of days look at or below normal. The rest are AN. That means any storm is going to have to manufacture cold air…something we havent done well around here in a while. Its exciting to talk about threats and such, but I think you should keep that in mind.

I mean, they looked good last night, lol. They didn’t look good today. We’ll see what tonight/tomorrow brings.

Hard to have any idea which side of the boundary we’ll be on. I don’t ever recall such volatility in the guidance.

it was the ensembles too that went south

Well we can bury our heads in the sand but would be nice if the OPs start looking a bit more promising around the 24-27th period.

We just can’t escape him.

50 today. Solar panels back in action baby

I have always likened it to discussing how a sports team may perform if they can trade for this guy or that guy. It's harmless speculation on a subject we enjoy that costs nothing. And nobody's hurt by it because nothing can get through the scars we all have suffered from countless busts! Lol

As @jconsorand @dendriteposted today.. The typically conservative hi res models showing such big numbers should be noted

Huh? You talking about the blip run?

What? They always underperform relative to clown maps. But this one may have a little daytime heating help. Otherwise meh.

Rain on Christmas lol.

These southerly events almost always overperform in winter as Mets have stated. Not that there’ll be 70+.. but a good amount of 60+ will happen

You might want to fact check your knowledge before posting about it non stop...