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I don't claim that the models have gained AGI, but I still wonder if they giggle at all of us losing our minds as they waffle. Then they waffle again for fun.

This system is going to be a slightly longer duration 12/16/2007.

People just toss every other model and take euros output as gospel. Yes, it’s one of the best models, but a blend is ideal. The back and forth in here today is tough, but it’s a imby game and we are on the edge, so I guess it makes sense.

Hopefully they’re just narrowing things down and meet in the middle or even closer to Euro’s side, then we’re fine. Unfortunately it’s a bit of a forum divider in terms of mixing.

Living in SE Wake co we ALWAYS point out the worst case! Been screwed too many times

I’m no professional, nor even an avid student of the models, but I have lived in North Carolina for 56 years, and I can promise you the Euro is understating the sleet / overstating the freezing rain.

Decent band not well modeled. Let’s move it east

I like how she emphasizes the "+" means or more! To cover her ass lol

It was weird, wasn’t really a north trend. Kind of just nukes the wedge

What do we know about the ICON-EPS ensemble?

It is very warm. That's why my forecast high is 10F Sunday, and low is 9F Sunday night. It's getting too close for comfort.

Can we get a screenshot?

Yeah typical SWFE is generally 10 hours with a few hours of heavy rates.

If this ends up like the Euro shows this run then people are never going to believe the local mets again and no one should ever trust any model outside 3 days when it comes to winter weather here.

Euro an unmitigated disaster with 1.35” of Freezing Rain down this way.

Starting to resemble 2002 ice storm for NC piedmont. We got a quick 2-3 hour thump of snow and over an inch of freezing rain in Durham. I was sitting in my hot tub and transformers were exploding all around. I shit you not, I thought it was lightning lol. (disclaimer- I was 22 and having a storm party) Life pretty much stopped for a week. Cheers to hoping for the sleet!

Everything already coated up here.

It's a longer duration SWFE, but basically same mechanics. Since we have all this gulf moisture and the cold dome is extreme, we can wring out a lot of precip versus the usual 0.5-0.75 we normally do. It would be our biggest region-wide storm in years regardless. There's still a chance we can trend it higher, but you'd need that secondary stuff.

It's wild to be looking at similar snow totals in the same storm between my former home in OK and my new home here. Bring it on!

Let's not forget how amp crazy the Euro can be. Just sayin'. The difference between this forecast and the Gfs isn't that much. But I do agree the bleeding needs to stop.

Hey, Euro told me to come see you guys...

EPS looks great!!!

Snow is most definitely an imby game.