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50 was the low here.

52F. Low dews Let’s Ramble

At least with the seasonal cooling now, above average is not necessarily hot. Uninstall if you're not a whimp.

Min 51.8° and breezy

58/56, nice and crisp here, windows open

51 here for the low.

Flooder for Dendy . This has a wagons north NNE Jack look to it . Everyone rains but seems like north is best

There’s a time to go Stein .. this ain’t it. Congrats up there!

“We don’t see a time in the past where El Niños have been as strong as today, and we show that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with the warming of global temperature,” said lead author Julia Cole, professor and chair of the U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “Our findings tell us that the big El Niño events of the last 40 years are not normal in the context of the last thousand years.” https://news.umich.edu/el-ninos-more-intense-over-last-40-years-than-previous-1000-according-to-u-m-study/

Dolly still looking voluptuous at this ripe age of hers. I feel like models have no idea what's going on. Same with NHC. How can this possibly only have a 0%/10% of becoming a TC?

When have you ever been influenced by modeling?

The 1.5 and 2C caps are so laughable now as we're blowing right through them. This is well ahead of schedule too and the catastrophic Nepal floods are just the beginning of what these rapid climate changes will bring.

Very impressive for that area.

Looks like it definitely could get wet. Most models have between an inch and an inch and a half for the week. Hope not.

Yeah. Just endless moisture down this way. The middle of next week will bear watching as PWATs are progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch neighborhood by Tuesday into Thursday.

The current record breaking +1.81° is well ahead of what any of the models were forecasting for this month.

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming. I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.

48 degrees this morning.