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This Vegas heat is getting aggressive. Approaching 110. I’ve been getting my sunny fix…and now starting to crave a couple of gray and cooler days lol.

You know why I don't believe it's needed? Because 3-4 more years of losing is the nuclear option--and you don't have to do that to turn this around. You need to fire Elias/Sig and give this org a new philosophy. Talent-wise, It is not broken beyond repair like it was in 2018. Why blow it up and go through that when you have another option to turn it around sooner? Holliday will be here. Gunnar is a maybe (his price got lower this year that's for sure). Adley isn't going anywhere, imo. We had a fire sale last year, did we not? Only thing to sell this year is Ward and maybe Cowser, Kittredge? Definitely not getting rid of Bradish or Baz. Rogers perhaps...but it's really not a lot worth selling.

Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset.

0.44 this afternoon - missed the purples on radar by about a mile or two... 1.12 for the 5 days - the grass is green & plants are growing so not bad...

Today's Highs: EWR: 89 TEB: 88 New BrnswcK: 87 LGA: 87 PHL: 86 BLM: 85 NYC: 85 TTN: 84 ACY: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80

That, and more. You think all these "core" players are gonna be here in 2-3 years? Basallo? probably. They made the investment. I wouldn't put my money on the rest, for multiple reasons. You don't want to accept it, but a rebuild is needed.

We don't need a rebuild. The talent is not the problem here...the organizational system is. There are reports of similar issues in the minors too. Not talent, but...philosophy. Gunnar, Holliday, Adley, Basallo...they would all do well elsewhere almost immediately and we'd all be wondering ehy they couldn't do that here. This is why a full tear-down would be a big mistake imo--why do another torturous 3-5 years when there is another option that could fix things in a year or two?

Was looking at the models for tomorrow and I think we could be in for a surprise. The setup has 3000+ CAPE on both the NAM and the HRRR (maintains low 70s dewpoints). Additionally, there is a shortwave that nears our region to put us in divergence aloft from 4-6pm west to east. However, this shortwave also appears to draw in a time sensitive increase in our 0-6 shear to 20-30 knots, while that still isn't good for severe storms it opens the door to having some level of organization. To add onto this factor is that the HRRR shows a small lee trough develop during the afternoon hours which causes a decently curved hodograph for the lower levels. To reiterate its nothing insane, but might be a sneaky day for supercellular storms to form and rotate. The HRRR and NAM both show storm relative helicity values for 0-3km of around 100 as well. Typical mid-atl caveats apply (our ML lapse rates suck) and I'm not saying this will be some crazy day, but just that it shouldn't be slept on. @vortex95 would love to know your/any other mets/wannabe mets thoughts. Below is the HRRR and NAM sounding, can see the difference the lee trough makes with the HRRR having that curved hodograph.

I agree strongly. Out of the last 10 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs, which goes back to 1982-3, 90% (9) had all 3 months +0.25+! The only one that didn’t was the last one, 2023-4. That one still had 2 of the 3 at +0.25+ with Feb at +0.09. March of ‘24 went back up to +0.45. Since 1982-3, 90% (9) of Marches were +0.25+ with only March of 2003 not as it was neutral (-0.07). In contrast to 1982-3+, only 1 of the prior 7 moderate or stronger El Niño DJFs had all 3 months at +0.25+!

Dismantle front office from top to bottom

For most of the past decade we've had cold West/warm East setups nationally when the subsurface is warming rapidly. You can sort of see it earlier in the month when it was very cold in the West near the peak of the current subsurface warming burst. I think its pretty likely late winter the subsurface heat will collapse quite rapidly, and so it should get fairly cold/stormy in the East at that point. Whether that's mid-Jan, mid-Feb, or mid-Mar makes all the difference. The first bit of research I ever did on El Nino was regarding March heavy snows locally. From 1931 to 2014, we never had any March with over 3-4 inches of snow in low-solar conditions and without El Nino. The last high solar El Nino March was 2014-15, and we had...9.6 inches of snow on Feb 26-28, with the mountains getting 50-100 inches in five days in late Feb/early March. 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20 were not high solar, and failed on the heavy March snow, and then 2023-24 failed as well (although honestly, March 2023 was more El Nino-ish by the subsurface +0.84 v. --0.54 in March 2024 and it snowed quite a bit in March 2023 throughout the Southwest. Remember the blizzard warnings in San Diego County?) If we get a warm subsurface and high solar in March 2027, I'll be on the lookout for blizzard/heavy snow risks throughout the Southwest. It used to happen in almost every high solar El Nino March. But recent El Ninos have either died too early or lacked high solar. We've had up to 14 inches of snow in March here, but never more than 3.5 in a non-high solar March, its literally 10x more common to get heavy March snow here with v. without it (>3", since average is 1.5" last century, and under 1.0" past 30 years). Mar-Apr 1973 locally had over 22 inches of snow, following only 15 inches in Oct-Feb, its the best winter here after 1914-15. My guess is the WPO/PNA/EPO/NAO/AO will all be pretty volatile compared to traditional expectations if the warmth is far enough east and warm enough by magnitude relative to position. I'd really like to see what 30.0C+ waters in Nino 3/3.4 or even 1.2 would do honestly.

Man I should write to my VA state house rep to ask if they could ever make a program like this for my state.

That's cruel. That poor man was so hot and all he ever wanted, was some cool water. Tuco got his later, though.

We have a Winnah!

There are only 3 teams with a worse record in the shitty ass AL. Still a chance tho, so lets be buyers at the deadline! NFL preseason football just a few weeks away. Lets go Ravens! (Please find a center)

Like clockwork.

If it weren't for pitchers making awful mistakes, Mayo wouldn't be cranking the occasional long HRs. His swing has more holes than a goddamn golf course.

Remember, Mayo was one of Elias' coveted prospects. An untouchable who was off limits when it came to trade talks. Dismantle this fucking team from top to bottom.

Yet another pathetic Orioles effort. Mayo is gonna hit .179 with 20 HRs and 50 RBI lol. Gunnar cant buy a hit. God this team is awful.

Thinking back to the conversation earlier today I came across this. A worthwhile read https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/08/reading-crisis-postliterate-age/687618/?gift=URojiRC-naOWGBfsE7oNmha0OJUXq9hYgtDbh92KSCg

I’d argue against -PNA in general if we see less MC forcing. Even the extreme jet extensions under Eastern Pacific forcing are usually “bootleg” +PNA/+EPO as the Aleutian Low reaches the western US. Still mild for the NE. Then if forcing shifts back towards dateline, can get periods of +PNA/-EPO with actual cold air to work with.

this video is from vietnam, but there was, incredibly, another strong tornado in china a few days ago https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq61d22ved2o

I'll believe it when I see it

82 here as well. No rain but not a bad day.

This season will definitely average +PNA and probably safely so. I think we get an RNA month, it may be December.