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CMC is still adamant on some ZR to start the event in the metros. temperatures are actually relatively cold at onset, around 27-30

I’m probably still on the outside looking in here at SLK, but I’ll actually need to drive to Albany tomorrow with my wife. Trying to figure out the best time for that…

Haha yep, on the whole, the hi-res guidance isn't overly optimistic with our chances down this way. Again, 2" and we'll call it a win. Just fun to be talking snow on December 1st.

So are you

Yes, I pointed this out. That being said, enhancement is a relative term, and while travel will be disrupted, these will not be crippling rates given the less than ideal banding signal in conjunction with the rapid pace of movement.

I think there is a lot of exaggeration too. I literally lived during the 1980s and it was not "frigid". We had cold spells like December 89 however I remember the big talk back then was it was getting too warm to snow and it was the new norm. I actually believed it until 2000 through 2018 happened, which I learned replicated 1955 through 1969. It has gotten warmer. However we are still seeing the Delmarva getting snowstorms like the 80s. Back then was cold and dry warm and wet. That is what we have now. Also neg. NAOs have failed us many times. Its just that 1955 through 1969 and 2000 through 2018 we succeeded more often than not. Now we are replicating the failures of 1970 through 1999. 30 years of abysmal snowfall with 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years!! I expect the same now until we get to the next favorable period (hopefully I am still alive). It just bothers me as I actually lived it. This is why I am not alarmed wrt snowfall failures.

Ambient.

Just a question of where that is but the most likely scenario is probably from Maine (just inland from the coast) back through CNE. I do wonder if there is some room to pop some 8-10" within that band.

there are about $10 in fossil fuel subsidies spent for every dollar of renewable subsidies when all financial factors including tax breaks are included in the evaluation

I don't know, ask the author of the tweet you quoted pertaining to a reversal around xmas.

Feel like more of a nowcast event with higher ratios. Here for the mood flakes. .

Yeah Don, GYX has that mentioned in there AFD as well, That's a nowcast once we see where that sets up.

Absolutely.

We shall see...long way to go.

I know you could definitely be right. Hoping it cools off some

I’m going flakeless for this. That’s my call for MBY

Sounds like Tollandblizzard2013

Yeah they’ll be a DGZ above 700. So where the 700-500 lift is maximized, probably where the band is.

I am not joking or kidding . I am fully convinced and expecting a 32.8-33.4 rain If it starts as snow for an hour that will be the extent . There won’t be any backend snows either. At least not in CT

I’m at elevation 187’ which gives my rain plenty of time to warm up to about 80° when it finally makes its journey from 10,000ft to surface

Ok cool…no worries then. On to the next potential next Wednesday then.

I suspect other factors are involved. The lag time would be too short to attribute the development to the recent SSWE.

Yep. That's what the Gfs does

This is 100% rain event for CT now other than NW Hills . Maybe it starts as an hour of snow. There won’t be any coverings

He's prob toast too if I'm toast. We need a little trend back between now and tomorrow but that becomes less and less likely as you get closer to verification. Models are more likely to be correct when they shift the closer we are to an event.