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Looks like the 12Z Suite of guidance has become in a bit better agreement regarding the NWFS event Sunday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are really going to shock the system with windchill values in the single digits and highs on Monday not getting above freezing.

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

Ripping it at Jay

showers and storms look like a lock tonight before another day in the 60s (maybe our last of the year?)

Yup. I had that spike too. Went up to 65 pre-front.

Euro Weeklies Dec 1-7: today’s run is coldest run yet

and so the pack begins.

Ended up with 2-3” at 1500ft and 7-8” above 3,000ft. Snow depth around 14” up top.

The difference is…for us/you those years are horrid. For DC those are good winters lol. It’s perspective. You’ll do fine this year.

That is blatantly not true. You get years where you get early season snowfall. October ‘11. November of ‘12 November of ‘18. December of ‘19. October of ‘20. The list goes on. And you go years where you don’t. Period. When I was a young kid the winters were horrific..then they got real good. Then they got horrific again…you roll with the changes.

The big rise since July was a given....it was at record levels.

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months.

Graupel/rain showers south of town currently refracting beams of sunlight just outside the office

I did wonder about warm ENSO before spring, but quickly relazed it wasn't happening. I do think we are nearing a PDO shift, but obviously not there yet.

With how the tools available to the most amateur precip output model watchers have improved the last few years, it would be great to get to actually track something worthwhile again

yep many

100% with this, you'll like it @PrinceFrederickWx

couple of instagram stories of legit snow . Acton MA

Getting damn near giddy. More persistent lake-effect snow appears most likely during the Sunday night through Monday evening time frame as very cold north- northwesterly low level flow sets up along Lake Michigan with H85 temperatures plunging to near -10 deg C above a still very warm lake surface (Lake-H85 difference around 20 C), courtesy of yet another (this time rather vigorous) short wave diving across the western Great Lakes during the day on Sunday. While it is difficult to iron out any specifics at this time range, this does appear to be something to watch over the next several days. The latest NBM shows roughly 60 percent probabilities of 4+ inches of 24-hour snowfall accumulation across Berrien, La Porte, and St. Joseph (IN) counties. Further, latest ECMWF EFI shows values of around 0.9 downwind of LM with Shift of Tails (SOT) values of 2 to 5. This would generally indicate greater confidence in potential for a more significant event relative to climatology. Stay tuned.

This has been the lowest 7 year run on record for the entire I-95 corridor from DCA to BOS. NYC has averaged 14.9” over this period. The last time NYC dipped under 18” for a 7 year stretch was back in 1992 during a much colder climate when they averaged 16.3”. So NYC able to have that 7 year to 10 year average jump back into 20s in the next few years since it was cold enough for a 50” season in 93-94 and a 75” season in 95-96. NYC hasn’t had a cold enough winter for 50” of snow since 14-15 which was before the big temperature jump in 15-16. Its unlikely NYC sees a 50” season and a 75” season absent a volcanic cooling not seen since the early 1800s during the remainder of the 2020s. So having both warm storm tracks and warm average winter temperatures has lead to this record low 7 year totals. That snow drought ending in 1992 was mostly a function of drier winters since the winter average temperatures were significantly colder than today. All the other prior snow droughts before 1992 when the NYC averaged under 20” for a 7 year stretch were also followed by 50” seasons. So those were the markers that the winter dry patterns were ending. The recent combination of record winter warmth and storm track warmth is a first for NYC.

In the city, LGA recorded 54 MPH; Stony Brook topped the night and recorded 70 MPH. https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/310-2025/PNSOKX/c8517c8ca3014c9eaf203ab033cd0360

Historical precedence argued against this, I remember doing research on this when hearing about all the El Niño hype. 2 years after a strong or super Nino goes -ENSO roughly 80% of the time.

Anyone know where Judah's fraud index landed? Guessing about normal?