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The models are simply overdoing the warmth expect more cold dominating over the warmth.

Ok, you all made me break down and look at the MJO. I really hate looking at that metric. LOL. Well, on pretty much every model it crawls into 7(sometimes 8), loops, dawdles, and stalls. 7 is cold when centered on NDJ. 8 is colder. It certainly looks like, as John and Boone and others have noted, that LR ext modeling is being driven quite early by the MJO. That probably is a good thing considering the MJO is in prime real estate by the end of the month. When it actually arrives into 7-8 is open for discussion. Nearly every model gets there w/ the BOMM and EMON being optimal. It just doesn't want to leave the left side of the MJO plot.

Wasn't 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 like a wire-to-wire winter?

I tend to agree but I do think there are a few names beyond just those two who would be worthy. In particular, keep an eye out for Bob Chesney. The guy has chops. I'm friends with a few guys in the local coaching circles and to say Bob Chesney is highly regarded in the coaching world would be the understatement of the year. The man has won everywhere he's been. Plus he's young and a PA guy. Cignetti took a lot of JMU's best players with him to Indiana and Chesney has them rolling right along. Only issue is he may get scooped by someone else, hearing UCLA has real interest in him. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out. I totally agree about taking care of Terry, love that guy.

For DFW, aside from shattering today's record high of 83*F, if the low of 72*F holds it will break the previous record high minimum of 70*F. The record high of 87*F was also tied yesterday.

I would bank on this. Confluence has been superior more often that not the last several years across southeast Canada.

Think it was 92-93. They had to close the bridges in the NYC area to break off the ice as someone had been killed by a falling piece off the superstructure of one of them.

Two years ago I asked several times about the earth adjusting on its axis and was ridiculed. Now that its confirmed to be almost 3’ I wonder if we have any idea about any effect? Presumably it’s so minuscule but do we actually know that? I mean we are told the planet is so fragile due to the 4.5% of it that is populated so could even .0001% of a change in the sun angle be of any importance? Thanks

KMPV is -1.8° just over half way through the month.

Anyone seeing any graupel in these showers? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Still waiting to break 40 degrees. It hit 39.7 about an hour ago, now 38.8/36.5 with light rain falling.

Ya, my truck many/most times is unrecognizable after a trip up north and back. I always hope for cold and dry…truck stays decent when that’s the majority of the trip. But most times it’s a complete disaster.

Lol, no. Even in my area mid 40's don't average for another couple weeks.

Here's the 12z RRFS snowfall output at 10:1 for our area. I think the CPA ridges are going to get a solid coating. But it dies out pretty quickly as you move eastward towards our area.

It was a good event in Saranac Lake, better than originally expected. It’s early, but I’ve noticed 1) BTV underestimates snow potential here and 2) it’s often snowing even when the radar looks clear We’ll have non-accumulating flakes during the day and as soon as the sun sets BAM we’re approaching an inch of fluff.

Average high is 53…

That whole 11/29-12/1 period is semi-interesting. There’s going to be troughing most likely entering the Midwest so if we have some local confluence/cold press ahead of it, then we might be able to sneak an event in there. OP euro shows a colder look on that today. As usual, best chance this early is going to be interior and prob some latitude as well, but something to watch.

I generally hate posting fantasy model snow maps, but I couldn't resist this one. Here's the 12z HRRR. This is far outside the inter-model spread, so extremely unlikely. It's certainly not close to what I expect to play out. But it made me smile to see anyway. The HRRR has been backing off every cycle since.

I'm fine with saving our best pattern for after Dec 15th. A regionwide, 1" - 3" Dec 5th cartopper would be sweet, but I'm all about Christmas snow, ESPECIALLY if it falls Christmas Day and then we just go vodka cold through January.

Maybe we can sneak a graze by the offshore wave on 11/29, see 12Z AI.

i would love it, though. maybe we can sneak in a few 1-3 and 3-5 events in mid-late December to put us up there.

That’s quite the cooldown! The EPS has also cooled down over the last 48 hours of runs for the weekend after Thanksgiving though not to as cold as GEFS.

Wouldnt be shocked to see the northern crew see some wet snow over night tonight.

“This is jay peak. It’s the snowiest spot in the east, period. We’ve gotten a shit ton of snow. There’s a shit ton at 1800 ft, there’s a larger shit ton at 4000 ft. It has been snowing a lot, and it’s been really windy and there’s a shit ton of snow. In some spots, there’s 4 feet, in some spots there’s a foot. Wherever you ski, there’s a shit ton of snow” I think this would be a more effective snow report and prevent the endless debates over what we all know is a shit ton of snow, skewed heavy due to obvious marketing embellishments and lack of precise measurements when numerical values are put on it. .

I don’t want to get over my skis here, but I think we should be very excited about the look of the long range. I’m wary of the Pacific cooperating as well, but this PV weakening is something we haven’t seen in a while. So much so, I think that being outside of prime climo might be the true sweet spot. The AI models were first to sniff things out and now we’re seeing the other guidance catch up to the idea of the cold being centered in the plains — eastward instead of being so closely anchored to the Rockies. Time will tell how much bleeds east of the Apps but the 8/1 crawl on the MJO coupled with some blocking should help quite a bit. I still imagine this being a step down process and don’t buy the hype of it being an immediate meat locker right after Thanksgiving. My gut says we have to watch a few cutters occur Thanksgiving - Dec 5th ish and somewhere after that first week, a fantasy storm might work into the medium range. If this look were to show up post-Christmas I’d be a lot less bullish for most in this forum because it would scream cold and dry with ample suppression. It’s a fine balance but this sort of pattern is how you nail a big dog before we get into the heart of winter.