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It has now been misting here for 14 straight hours Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

It’s coming…

To be clear, I'm not debbing on this winter. We have several favorable factors working in our favor thus far, and as @WxUSAF has noted these torches advertised in the medium to long range have been muted as we close on the date.

Looks like EF4 type damage with cinder block construction torn down. This area was in the "weaker" western eyewall. At a similar altitude to where that 250 mph wind gust was measured

Models really struggle with the December forecast progression of the pattern in late November. That’s why I would like to see everything play out over the next few weeks before getting too excited this early. Let’s see what the Euro monthly comes up with on the December 5th release. There is a bit of a late November forecast barrier for getting the mid into late December patterns correct. Since we can go back to most years at this time in the long range forecasts and watch numerous changes as the calendar actually gets into the first 5 days or so of December. Plus we have the backdrop of only 3 Decembers in the last 14 years that lead to major I-95 snowstorms since 2011. So December has faced some challenges for the snowfall after having 7 out of 11 snowy years between 2000 and 2010.

You guys need to relax. Look at euro ensembles by day 15. Even a cold Dec 1-5 is still probably cold rain. Just be patient

21 for the low, hvy frost...Happy Friday.

The advertised better pattern looks to be on track beginning around December 5th on the 0z EPS & 0z GEFS.

The advertised better pattern looks to be on track beginning around December 5th on the 0z EPS & 0z GEFS.

I've done a few of these at Penn State road games. Met some amazing people tailgating, especially in Madison Wisconsin Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I can see that just based on the snowfall prediction contest thread. The early SSW doesn't really change my prediction for this winter much, if at all. If it does come to fruition, it may give us a front-loaded winter with a backend torch. If not, another SSWE may try again later given the neg QBO and given the shorter lag, we may see another 2-3 week window of opportunity in Jan or Feb. Getting both seems a little too much to ask for, imho.

Haha, I wish I could bet money on this Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

While I hope to be wrong, I agree. We're investing a lot of hope in an early SSWE and the past 10 years have largely been putrid for snow lovers in this subforum.

Midnight low of 27, 35 currently.

PennDOT ready for winter with full snowplow crew in Susquehanna Valley No more Penndot getting caught with their pants down. https://www.wgal.com/article/penndot-ready-for-winter-with-full-snowplow-crew-susquehanna-valley/69500958?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&fbclid=IwY2xjawONJORleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEe7VAPi-k1BASQz1jPMyIBVOYQqCI-9LDVpYrlEkbdz51lBUJeOZQmV2p7RHE_aem_8AcR4psaxjaZQnbvNVT7_g&brid=u2tOX6_dCAPwrZFoy4c0Jg

Simon Lee has been saying 1996-97 is a good stratospheric analog for over a month now. It’s not like some twitterologist is saying this either. He’s one of the foremost authorities on the stratosphere, has written many published papers on it

THIS WEEK IN WEATHER-- 20 NOV 2025 - yes the cold and snow patterns are coming but be patient ! https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FlgrsqBsyW5I%3Ffbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExWktKNUZ2Sk1LZ2s1ZHZRUXNydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR4EWCzVr7PgkfJlfGjxdbb6_R0iRskzh8J2-l-_3BUwDdUVWEYTckcpUPVFoQ_aem_eDM-N5qwLLLZU3BDKgpagQ%26brid%3DBjehTrnhpt46AE5ySmOg8Q&h=AT3alzLBB1HJtYSvIH_wH3RhuVpTCgZ_PF25L_unhBpZPeY0jcZ76jospygXvghr7RNO9BBwdTquu4K2hla88s01_-STZ3uEsq8sFetumaOFLDBEZKBh_DkzuTTnz1nF2HwWlsLtZuXGKw&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2ydP5eX9OdMYbIFRajuZJ519NwRNgJ_zfnavS3uhFLvjd14l4fMVU9OSL_mlZsT95kr_y5HAC7PMQi5JcirYihmzItSV_LyMCsSfkops6CI4S97HcftlQnxMsdcGyDpBZ6UbxKnGvs4f1-NgHaHMD8tu2rUu4jBeVt9T_WJd336f1zsIKkj-rd31-FriL_4Eo10G1tauvThAS7Ks6nOb_nZWs9Fg

Amazing how fast the models will switch at that range. Can't put any stock in a 2-week model run

He has spoken.

CEF.....45 to 55 -1F for met winter

Its been one of the most normal falls I can remember in ages. If we get some snow and cold in December at some point we will be fine. I think its gonna be a more normal winter. I'm so glad we really haven't had the screaming southeastern.

My second favorite Depeche Mode song

Down to 20F so far in E CT, Yawgoo Valley making snow?

One thing that western jog right before landfall seems to have done is to have drug the eyewall and RMW over a larger area of coastline because though the eye itself remained just offshore longer, the eyewall was already onshore. For a system with a tight inner core like Melissa had, there is a much larger area of extreme-unprecedented wind damage than would otherwise be expected given the small RMW at the time of landfall

Mammoth is getting hit by even more snow - this was definitely NOT in the forecast tonight! They have 3-4 inches MORE fresh snow since 6pm and MORE on the way overnight! They just opened today! Even the Village level got hit! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Woolly Lot needs a Plow!!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam That snow is blowing in the Lights at the Main Lodge! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge