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hi res vis imagery has the "back edge" of this smoke band about 10 minutes up 89 from CON and collapsing SE...

That's very quick burst of heat then 70s low 80s. Welcome to coc season

The 1960s being much colder than the 2010s is definitely a combo of CC and the AMO.

One thing I will say is that the 2015-2016 winter as much milder and less wintry overall, aside from the mid atl blizzard, then the 1957-1958 el nino....I am sure CC plays a role there maybe, but the former event was also simply stronger, too. Again, possibly due to CC.....that is reasonable.

Love this deep summer look and feel! 80 on car thermometer in Hampton.

Exactly...I agree, but listen...maybe Chris is right...I am willing to wait and see and I will change my mind if we are still sporting a negtive PDO in 7-10 years. But I don't see why the default baseline should be some radical change to the global circulation and multidecadal patterns. The climate/meteorology community should remain open to that possibility as scientists, but it should not be assumed at this juncture given the info that I have just presented.

I still say that the predominantly +3/2014-7/2016 during El Niño is similar to 6/1957-2/1959.

to 78 (add 10) gets to 88 for here. Smoke mainly cleared through Jersey. Hot spots look low 90s tomorrow

Looks like widespread half inch on Saturday

Now this is the weather I need.

Hazy shade of summer

Then we have the nam

Code Orange in effect today with the worst of the haze/smoke expected east of the Susky. I see little evidence of it here at work currently, however.

flipped back to ireland mode today, guess we need the rain def the greenest drought i can remember

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

FN... ALEET. Captain Summer. ALEET.

Friday definitely looking a bit more intriguing. Shear is very weak so this isn't a big severe setup but could be good for some local microbursts and lots of lightning.

Yup, that's the Low offshore. Its a rarity seeing clouds and rain coming from the east. Its strange seeing clouds move that direction around here. Looks like unsettled weather the next 5 to 7 days. Another smokey morning for me too.

Now we're ahead of yesterday... 77 Smoke appears to be doing the typical mid-day weakening. I'm wondering what the cause is for that. I've observed many times, these smoke bands in otherwise clear air/non-cloud contaminated skies do seem to 'thin', albeit subtly, as the mid days near. Perhaps kinetic heating of the smoke particulates, when there is higher solar insolation, then increases dispersion mechanics..

A nice early June day on tap with highs in the upper 70's. Skies have mellowed out with the smoke. Just a light veil. Sunrise n set have had a reddish orange sun. Still in need of precip. Early week rains were a dud here with maybe a tenth in the bucket.

At the moment, bright sunshine and 78 degrees here in east York. Hoping this lasts awhile before any smoke haze sets in. It was pretty hazy yesterday from here to Lewisberry.

They're still a big difference between the Euro and the GFS

damn... Saturday's still up in the air. 06z GFS kind of collapsed out of nowhere ... removing it's St Lawr. Seaway low transit. That's more like the GGEM's idea all along. Yet, it's not inundating with steady rain, like the GGEM, which showed less nor'easter low, but still fudge packs a rain band through everywhere... I'm wondering if even at this short lead ... the weak flow is causing a lot of uncertainty. The 00z Euro took a step toward more low up there, which is more of a structured warm sector thru SNE... it seems regardless, PF up there is losing Saturday to rain... check. We need to see that happen in order for the rest of us to rejoice and bathe with 70 hot virgins while he's loading the coal into the bath house steam furnace for a gay roman day spa... If we can get that symbolically arranged, all is right in the cosmos. j/k .. it may just be a frontalysis miasma day. sultry dps with light sky but little real blue... in between dark patches, with thunder audible by 11:30 off in the distance type of day.