All Activity

Your average 32 frost in Taunton is 10/19….we’ve been below that a few times already. Average first frost for BDL is 10/14…so we right on track. Don’t know about your mulch beds?

Okay, We have been in an overarching dry pattern since 2023 with only brief periods of respite regardless of ENSO state. This year in particular there is a deficit throughout the region, with DCA having one of over 6 inches. That's in spite of the precip events over the last couple months which have since ceased. This is why I'm harping on the pattern change being can kicked, while the growing season may be over this is still a vital window to build up the groundwater and refill the reservoirs. Need I remind you that the Baltimore metro water supply has to dip into the Susquehanna for the fact that Loch Raven is too low. Deficits carry over too and if we look at where things stand since 2023 the long term deficit is as high as 20 inches in some spots. We're going to need as much precip as we can get over the next 6 months or we could very well be right back in a widespread drought come Summer, especially if the forecasts of next year being a niña come to pass. The more the niño kicking in gets pushed back the less likely we are to fully turn the corner on the drought. Care to disagree?

Normal exactly.

That won’t happen….but then again…you’re the new tropics of SNE, so ?

Not here…we right on track.

We just went through this last year, and the year before in the late autumn early winter. Just wanna make it clear, these early PV irregularities are are not related to SSW events.

When is it going to be your turn to make a post that actually adds some value?

I am beginning to think this Nino isn't going to behave like an expected Nino.

Blue sky like every single day has that ever happened before

Combined, the NW Pacific and NE Pacific are near 700 ACE

We’ll crash fast outside the city-winds are pretty calm and dewpoints around 30. I’m pretty confident many drop into the 30s again and maybe near freezing (of course outside the city).

29 to 61. Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk. Trees really popping now

Looks like a 12/24 map.

Odd. Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000

Was able to go on a 3 mile walk today. Can’t get better weather.

10/10 day today. Mid 60s.

Today’s Euro weeklies has the trough in the south getting started by week 3 and deepens it the next 2 weeks. This is the earliest the weeklies have showed the southern trough. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611230000

This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets.

First the niño precip was supposed to kick in during late summer then it was Labor Day then it was the equinox then it was late October, now it’s been can kicked to some indeterminate time in November. A couple head fakes occurred in that interval, the most recent one wrapped up a week ago. When is it going to be our turn for a sustained wet pattern with no rug pulls, the stars shouldn’t have to align for our area to get precip…

I haven’t had any complaints. I feel like it’s been a normal to warm fall, like they all are now. I’m just saying it seemed like you were arguing that freezing frost in October was somehow impressive. id have to look when the average 32 date is here, I’m guessing we were later than average

Warm November ahead