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Ok folks the gfs is running. Let’s reel one in.

I think they're good for different things, TN to see how far west things get started (we want it further west than it is now) and NC to see how the development goes, and because if it is getting clobbered there's hope for a north trend (though not as much this year apparently). But I'm just mashing together a few data points and having fun with it so, take what you will and I could be loopy

3” in a week is solid when there’s not a single event to key on

Wouldn't NC be better in terms of Mid-Atlantic coastal though?

Depends, Tennessee can get snow out of cutters so never know.

Always observed that when you see geese gathering and eating together that snow is about 2 weeks away.

This extended warmth in January is what I call a winter killer. Basically a week straight of March. Awful. 47F. Feels good at least

partial phase on icon for next Thursday-Friday

Nice. I've done that in this kind of weather. Installing a service/Ect on the outside of a house in cold weather isn't fun, then again crawling thru an attic in the summer is no picnic either.

Yeah, EPS has a transition back to colder again following this warmer pattern.

I only have pivotal's surface plots for the ICON-EPS but if for a giggle one wants to consider it, I think the low placement is better. The low to our NE is getting out faster and there's broader low pressure along the east coast on the mean. Stronger high to the NW.

Oh boy

2.4” here, almost all 1-6 am.

12z ICON with the teaser but never really gets anything going for us

I think as a proxy for "when the storm winds up", more snow modeled in TN is good. If it isn't there, would suggest the process is delayed and we go OTS I think.

If it's conducive for snow to our south, then we're in a position to score.

FWIW - same kind of graphic for DCA instead of wherever TN

Biggest run of our lives?

Good for Tennessee? lol

LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here!

EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign. EDIT: Yes, I know this is for TN, if it's showing a favorable pattern to our south, then we're in a position to score here.

That makes things easier, huh? But was he wrong?

Yep!

For the record, I have to google have the $h!t you people say. But I'm learning!

12z ICON is a swing and a miss for Storm #1