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  2. Lava Rock
    same in pwm. Misting and wet.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with.
  4. Damage In Tolland
    Won’t be either here
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher.
  6. Ginx snewx
    2 brutal forecast days by NWS here . Mostly sunny epic fail
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    In the whole picture I'm not seeing H5 similarities to 1997 and 2015.
  8. Ginx snewx
    What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall.
  9. LakePaste25
    Close to Oct 1997 and 2015. The only difference is those years had more ridging north of the Bering sea. These were +PDO Ninos.
  10. dendrite
    I'd lean Wed morning...Tue AM we may still be mixed with CAA. But yeah, growing season may be on thin ice up here unless the intensity backs off...which is possible given it's 6 days out.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, May-June-July-Aug NAO was -0.75 per month, that comes out to -0.07/month for DJFM, or DJFM total of -0.28, based on 75 years. Weak correlation, but generally those 4 months negative then Oct pos is an interesting point for more winter -nao tendency.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25.
  14. SnoSki14
    I think the rain threat will return on the models.
  15. Ginx snewx
    Frost and freeze advisories will be flying for Tuesday morning.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    May, June, Aug, Sept NAO total was -3.00.. -0.75/mo. 3/4 months negative. I think the overall correlation from -0.75 MJJA to DJFM is -0.07/8 lol.
  17. jm1220
    Those homes and many others are in trouble if we repeat this 3-5 more times over the winter.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not with this. -PDO is cold water in the GOA. This is also anti-El Nino October
  19. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
  21. Cold Miser
    Some muted and some more vibrant colors around now. Big difference from a week ago.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like May-Aug NAO was -0.75/month and if October ends up +.. that is a formula for a more -NAO Winter. Plus since 2012 90N May-Sept SLP has reverse for the Winter every time, and it was strong neg anomaly this Summer.
  23. finnster
    Or Westminster has 0.03" and Parker 0.15". Bummer indeed. We'll have to import water from New Mexico at this rate. And in 30 hours from right now, Denver Water is prohibiting all outdoor watering for the foreseeable future, including next Spring till they say so. \ I hear ya. Weighing in here from the Fort Collins area. It looks like we're way too far north to cash in on any of this moisture. Should be getting to used to that by now but still get PO'd about it! Hope you guys in Denver metro get something out of it.
  24. cleetussnow
    Thats why we protect the dunes! While this is awful, they did their job. Other places were not so lucky, if you can call it that.
  25. WEATHER53
    That’s over a 15 foot shear!!
  26. backedgeapproaching
    I only have a small sample size of 12 years living here, but last year was by FAR the worst locally. Not even a close second in my opinion. I'm not an expert by any means, but pretty easy to explain last year I think- .75" in AUG and about 2.75" in Sept--that will probably do a number on foliage.
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